2018 State Previews: AAA 800m

AAA 800m

The Stage

In 2016, the stage seemed set for absolute madness in the AAA 800. District 12 stand outs Dave Whitfield of Bonner and Stephen McClellan rocked their championship meet and entered as the top seeds. Although Jaxson Hoey and Matt Wisner were in the race and had big meet pedigree, there was still a general feeling among the state that these two could falter (whether through sickness or doubling). However, almost no one saw Joe Espinal of Wilson (11) coming. The senior went from a personal best of 1:55 to a 1:51.09 PR in a blink and stunned the state landscape en route to gold.

For whatever reason, things feel similar to me this year. Rarely does the state meet play out exactly as you suspect (or at least not as I suspect) and you’ve got to call that one more wacky gold medalist to nail your predictions. That was Espinal in 2016 (well, him and Matt Kravitz), Zach Brehm in 2015 for the 3200 and Isaac Kole in 2017. And long before all that, back in 2008, it was Tom Mallon.

Tyler Shue of Ephrata is hoping he can follow in Mallon’s ’08 footsteps. Shue was second at the indoor state championships behind only Liam Conway (who is only running the 16 outdoors) and has been near invincible this outdoor season. He will have tired legs for the 800 final (Ephrata is among the title contenders in the 4x8), but he’s proven he can double. Plus, the last two sophomores to win AAA gold in the 800 each also ran the 4x8 (Mallon in ’08 and Brehm in ’13).

But Shue will need to jump the two top seeds in the competition to earn that gold. Collin Ebling of Pottsville proved me very wrong at his district championship, running under 50 seconds for 400 meters before turning around and crushing a 1:53.84 to win the 800 title over Sam Morgan of Parkland. Ebling has dropped the 400 to go all in on the 800 and, as the #2 seed in the event, that looks like a smart decision. He may be the favorite on paper.

Of course Franklin Regional’s Matt Busche will have something to say about that. Busche, who was a state medalist last year on his fourth race of the weekend, had a major breakthrough at the WPIAL championships. After living in the 1:56 range so far this spring, Busche found his legs at the right time and dominated a stacked field with a time of 1:53.31. He had a roughly 2 second margin of victory over Seth Ketler and holds nearly a second advantage in seed time for this championships.

The wildcards will be our buddies from District One. The states deepest district is sending 8 guys to states in this event, despite sub optimal conditions at Coatesville this past weekend. Aidan Sauer was the district champion last week and is all on in this event with no 4x8 qualified while a tight knit group followed within a second or so of the Pennsbury senior. Sauer’s brother ran 1:51.00 at this meet in 2015 to take silver behind state meet record holder John Lewis.

The Prelims

I said this in the AA preview and I’ll repeat again here – the 800 prelims at states are the hardest race to navigate in the state. The odds say that at least one big name will be bounced as we are talking 16-17 guys per heat fighting for just 4 automatic qualifying spots in the finals (the next 4 fastest times between the two heats will also advance, setting up a 12 person final). We’ve seen the #1 seed go out in the prelims more than once in recent years so no one is safe.

Ultimately, here are my guess for who advances: Matt Busche, Collin Ebling, Tyler Shue, Aidan Sauer, Jack Baker, Seth Ketler, Matt Eissler, Collin Ochs, Hudson Delisle, Ethan Zeh, Mitchell Forgash, Jed Scratchard.

This one was really hard for me to pick. The biggest name I left out was Sam Morgan of Parkland who I easily could have swapped in for one of the bubble picks. I like the advantage the District One guys will have after already seeing a prelim-final set up at their district meet this weekend. That could give them an edge.

Some other sleepers I left out include Seth Phillips of Mifflin County (low 1:55 PR, does have 4x8 duties), Jonah Powell (another 1:55 guy on the double) and Jared Thompson from Williamsport (1:56 victory at districts, but has the 400 on his schedule as well). I really like Matt Wehrle of Punxsutawney’s upside as a finals sleeper and you can’t count out anybody who wears the CR North jersey. Sam Earley has a history of showing up for the big meets and he started things rolling that way with a clutch PR at districts.

I think Baker is going to get an auto Q for Cedar Cliff, but he’s a little more vulnerable than others without some of the states experience. Mitchell Forgash of District 2 seems like a bit of a boom-bust pick, but he showed awesome potential at Shippensburg with his 1:56.10 best. I think he drops that this weekend. Jed Scratchard is my real wild card. He barely made it into this meet, needing a couple CB West scratches to qualify. But I honestly feel like that stroke of good fortunate is going to lead to something magical at states. He has a sub 1:55 PR and can handle this stage. If he gets on the podium, I’ll coordinate a meeting between him and the CB West guys to hug it out.

The Finals

I’m having a really difficult time calling this race. I think it’s not unrealistic to have a long list of potential champions. Clearly, I’ve been in Shue’s corner for much of the year, but the District One guys are super dangerous. Sauer and Eissler both ran strong times in crappy 800 conditions this past weekend and they already know how to handle two races in a weekend. Plus, both of these guys made the state finals last year (although Sauer didn’t actually run it). It’s no secret that I think Eissler has the talent to win the state title, but he’s got to get by guys with fresher legs.

Don’t count out a couple sleepers in Hudson Delisle and Collin Ochs. Delisle ran 1:52 this year and has been gradually working back to peak form this spring. He’s the top returner from last year’s meet and fits the story of an upset champion. Delisle’s been working back, waiting to peak at the right moment and, when it clicks, he’s the most talented for the field and grabs gold. That may be asking too much of Hudson, but is something to keep in the back of your mind. Ochs has really impressed me all season and I feel like the kid is just a winner. I suspect he’ll stick his nose in the race and contend on the last straightaway.

I don’t know what to make of Busche and Ebling honestly. I think Ebling has a better chance of winning gold because I’ve been super impressed by his 400-800 doubles and I like his raw speed. But Busche has been in this final before and ran well. Maybe this past week was the perfect breakthrough he needed to surprise at states. If he can cut three more seconds off his seed time again, I guarantee he will win.

Alright, enough chat. Here’s the picks.

8. Jed Scratchard 1:54.43

7. Hudson Delisle 1:54.02

6. Collin Ochs 1:53.96

5. Matt Busche 1:53.46

4. Matt Eissler 1:53.32

3. Aidan Sauer 1:53.16

2. Collin Ebling 1:52.80

1. Tyler Shue 1:52.65