2018 State Previews: AAA 1600m

AAA 1600m

The Stage

A year ago the 1600 was one perhaps the wildest race of the state championships with a slew of runners battling on the last lap. Breaking through with a massive PR and an upset victory was Isaac Kole of Carlisle, who won the race in 4:12. Trying hard to run him down in the final meters was Owen J. Robert’s Liam Conway, who enters this year’s race as the top returner and reigning indoor state champ (in the mile and the 800). Conway’s personal best from last year’s state championships is 4:13.00, which makes him the fastest guy in this field on paper. He’s also proven that his tactics are sound and he can win a variety of races, including a kicker’s style format that seems so common in championship settings.

Although Conway won a competitive district one final, he does not enter as the #1 seed. Instead, that honor belongs to Evan Addison of LaSalle. Addison has been strong in the mile to date, but Conway has had his number in the big races to date. However, Addison has strong together some consistent results including a new 3200 PR at Henderson (finishing ahead of Conway) and now a 4:13.85 bomb at the District 12 championships (which he won by 8 seconds over his two teammates). Suddenly the LaSalle senior looks like a championship contender.

Two juniors won the other major districts, 3 and 7, as Jack Wisner of Carlisle and Cameron Binda of Greensburg Salem enter as perhaps unlikely #2 and #3 seeds. Neither of these guys has made a state championship final, but both have killer momentum. Wisner looks to keep the title in house for Carlisle while Binda is accompanied by two other promising teammates, including his twin brother Dylan.

Lastly, you’ve got to mention the story of the year in the 1600 – the District 2 boys. Tyler Wirth and Kyle Burke have been fantastic this year and the pair dueled to a second straight memorable district championship, with Burke outlasting Wirth. Tyler has the faster PR, running 4:14 in a match up with Burke earlier in the year (Kyle ran 4:16). These two should both have state gold aspirations and, perhaps more importantly, will have their own inter-district rivalry to help propel them around the track.

The Prelims

I’m sure you getting sick of me explaining this by now, but I’ll say it again in case this is the first one of these you’ve read. To get to the finals of the 1600, runners will need to survive the qualifying heats. That means they need to be top 4 in their heat or among the next 4 fastest times from the two heats combined. In total, that’s 12 guys through to the finals.

Here’s who I have slated to be those 12 guys: Evan Addison, Kyle Burke, Tyler Wirth, Liam Conway, Jonah Hoey, Jack Wisner, Cameron Binda, Dylan Binda, Connor Shields, Kyle Malmstrom, Jonah Powell, Nathan Grucelski.

There were some tough omissions here. I think heat two looks pretty darn formidable with four of the biggest names around all in that heat so I wouldn’t want to have drawn that heat from an auto perspective, but maybe someone is willing to take the pace and keep things quick enough that they get extra time qualifiers. Meanwhile, in the other section, I think this sets up nicely for Jack and Cameron, who can transition a bit onto the big stage without having to battle all the biggest names. That being said, I really like sleepers from this heat like Jonah Powell and Chayce Macknair (if he can double back from the 4x8 well, he will be a finalist).

Dylan Binda’s run at the WPIALs was really impressive. The kid has great 800 speed, but he didn’t have much 1600 experience. Smart coaching from this squad to push Dylan up in distance and let him use that speed to drop a fast PR at 4:21. And good for Dylan for not being afraid of the longer event. He may just be starting to scratch the surface of his potential (and he gets to race alongside his brother in the prelims).

I’m rooting for Matsumura of Southern Lehigh to have a big race. He’s overcome injuries to run away with the district title and qualify for a second straight state meet. He’s definitely a sleeper. Then you’ve got some guys on the 4x8 double in Patrick Anderson and Aiden Tomov who have proven they could be state medalists on the right day that I’ve also left out of the finals. Super soph Anderson seems like a likely candidate to make me look silly for leaving him out of the final. I’m still surprised he dropped the race he did at districts.

The Finals

I think this is going to be a truly exciting race once again. I’d say Conway is the favorite (and will probably be my pick to win at the end of this paragraph), but I also suspect this race is going to have some wild moments. People know about Conway’s kick, particularly Addison who has seen it up close. Maybe he uses some of that 4:13 strength to make a mid-race surge and throw a wrench in Conway’s race plan. How to Wirth and Burke figure in? These guys both have big kicks and they’ve run some really quick 16s so they won’t be afraid of a quick pace. It doesn’t feel like either of these guys will be crowned the champion on Saturday, but did it really feel like Kole would be this time last year? How about Matt Kravitz or Joe Espinal before him?

Ultimately, I think the state champ will end up being whoever has the best day from those four. I’ve been riding hard for Cameron Binda all spring, but I think the junior may be a year away from winning gold on this stage. The same is true for Jack Wisner. He’s come on at the perfect time (typical Carlisle), he’s got championship pedigree all around him and he’s got a strong finishing kick. But again, I think he’s a year away.

I’d be stunned to see this guy win the title, but you know who is really, really good? Jonah Powell of Grove City. He was able to cruise a bit at districts, but the Grove City junior has run a 4:20 mile and a 1:55 800 this season. He was 3^rd in the state in XC and has raced some of the biggest names out west. Don’t sleep on him just because he didn’t run fast at districts. We’ll see if the decision to double up between 16 and 8 spreads him thin at all.

Of course, we’ve got to mention the biggest name in the room. Jonah Hoey, brother of state record holder Josh Hoey and 2015 1600 state champ Jaxson Hoey, is entered in this event after taking 2^nd at the District One championships. He chose the 16 over the 800 which I found a surprising choice (he’s run 1:53 this year), but that means that this sophomore has confidence in his ability to close and go for the win in this race.

Like I said at the top, this one is tough to call. The door seems open for an upset compared to indoors, but I see the crazy race this year being the 800 (not that we can’t have two) so I think this one holds a bit more true to form.

8. Jack Wisner, Carlisle 4:16.54

7. Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 4:16.30

6. Jonah Powell, Grove City 4:15.98

5. Cameron Binda, Greensburg Salem 4:15.13

4. Evan Addison, LaSalle 4:14.45

3. Kyle Burke, Abington Heights 4:14.01

2. Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack 4:13.23

1. Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 4:12.75