District 3 AA
3200m
A year ago Joe Cullen, who entered with 10:18 seed time,
ran 9:33 to win the district championship in this event. It was one of three
individual golds he would win at District 3 last year. Cullen’s entered again
this year with a similarly modest 10:08, but this time the quest for gold won’t
be as easy as it was a year ago. Brendan Miller is racing at an extremely high
level, including the equivalent of a sub 9:20 time at the Penn Relays. If we
see Miller and Cullen both go all out we could see some blazing times, but with
Wyomissing hoping to maximize points, an all-out effort may not be in store.
The same could be said for Cullen’s teammate Ben Kuhn.
The sophomore has been incredible this year with 4:21 and 9:34 bests to date. I
think he’s a little bit more likely to be all out in the 3200 which could set
up a big test against Miller. Kuhn has some decisions to make before states
with the 32 and 16 (and the 4x8) each looking like medal opportunities. If he
can hold his own against Miller, and maybe even pick up the win, that would set
him up as a top tier contender for states.
Another member of the Wyomissing army is Matt Driben. The
senior was a state qualifier last year after finishing 3rd in the
championships. His season best to date is just off the SQS at 9:49.49 (he needs
9:48.01 or top 2 to qualify for Shippensburg). This field is pretty deep so
Driben will need to bring his “A” game to this race if he wants a spot at
states. I think he can get down to that 9:48 time and he maybe even gets some
pacing help from Cullen depending on if he is out for gold.
Logan Horst, a medalist from XC and top performer on the
trails, is also in the mix for a top spot. The Lancaster Mennonite sophomore
was a breakout star in the fall and has since clocked a 9:43 for 3200. I’d be
surprised to see him left out of the state qualifying mix and, considering his
PR, he’s got a great shot to advance to states whether he is inside the top 2
or not. His teammate Nate Yoder and Wyomissing’s Josh Diehl are among the
sleepers for a top finish in this meet.
My picks for states? I think Miller wins it with Kuhn 2nd
and Cullen 3rd (who is almost definitely a scratch for states). I
have Horst and Driben getting in via time in 4th and 5th
to round out the qualifiers.
4x800m
The two top teams in the state for the 3200 relay both
reside in District 3, but don’t get your hopes up for a showdown this weekend.
Schuylkill Valley and Wyomissing are the only AA teams under 8 minutes so far
this year, both clocking 7:57 in a finish that was decided by just 0.03.
However, historically Wyomissing is in survive and advance mode in the District
4x8. If they place top two or run under 8:15 they’ll punch a ticket to states
and I think that’s all they are particularly concerned about. So I’m betting on
Schuylkill Valley for the win and Wyomissing for second but not much drama or
fast times.
The real intrigue will be Trinity. They’ve run 8:22 this
year, meaning they’ve got to drop some 7 seconds to advance to states. This is
a program that has a knack for excelling in the 4x8 and my gut tells me they
will put together a big day and qualify for states.
So I’ve got Schuylkill Valley, Wyomissing and Trinity all
advancing to states for my picks.
By the way shout out to Upper Dauphin for not only
qualifying a 4x8 to the District Championship, but clocking a respectable 8:37
(#5 seed). Pretty crazy result and awesome to see how well this program has
been progressing since Brendan Miller’s breakout.
1600m
The protagonists from the 3200 will be back in the 16 and
Joe Cullen, Brendan Miller and Ben Kuhn make up the top seeds in the field. As
mentioned, Cullen is the defending champion as he handled Miller in this race
last year. The Wyomissing senior was second at states a year ago in the 1600
and has been awesome in this event again in 2018, running 4:20.08. He’s also
got impressive closing speed, boasting a season best of 1:54 in the 800. I
think Joe will win this race, despite a healthy challenge from both Miller and
his teammate, but I’m still not 100% sold on him competing in this event at
states. I think he may be more likely to try the 800 this year for whatever
reason (for the record, I thought that last year too and I was way wrong).
I feel like I’m repeating myself a lot, but this too will
be a big race for Kuhn. His 4:21 is a legit time and puts him in a great spot
for the stretch run of the track season. It’s not crazy to see him dipping into
the 4:17ish range by states which would make him a contender for a top 4 spot
in Shippensburg (depending on entries). As for Miller, I’m not positive the 16
fits in with his long term goals as he has a really good shot at the 3200 state
title. If nothing else, it will be a good opportunity to work on his speed. If
he drops a fast time, he can double up at states without much consequence.
If we do see scratches from Miller and Cullen/Kuhn, that
opens the door for another runner to grab an automatic qualifier. Wyomissing’s
Matt Driben and Ryan Vargo lead the charge in this area. Driben will have a
3200 in his legs from the night before while Vargo may or may not be involved
in the 4x8 (it’s unclear to me what Wyomissing’s line-up plan is). Will Bucher
of Trinity, another prime contender for the qualifying spot, may also be on
tired legs from the 4x8. That could really open the door for some craziness.
Ultimately, I’m going to pick Cullen-Kuhn-Miller for the
top 3 spots. My guess is that no more than one of those guys scratches and
nobody else eclipses the 4:31 state qualifying time, meaning the state field
will be set based on that trio’s performances.
800m
Stop me if you’ve heard this before – Joe Cullen is the
defending champion in this event. He won a year ago in 1:58 for his third
individual gold. He will be chasing that same triple this season and, with a best
some four seconds ahead of everyone else, it seems like this event won’t be his
undoing. I’ve got Cullen rolling to the championship in this event and setting
the stage for a run at a state championship next week.
That being said, I really like both Ben Reisenweaver and
Shamus Keefe as candidates for a big race. Reisenweaver has been one of the
stand out legs on Schuylkill Valley’s awesome 4x8 and I could see him popping
off a 1:56-57 kind of time at districts. His 2:00.42 seed time doesn’t do his
ability justice. Meanwhile Shamus Keefe of Delone Catholic has been very
quietly racking up some big times. He’s clocked a 1:58.62 already this year and
hasn’t had the opportunity to race on a major stage with guys of this caliber.
He also might be in store for a big PR.
My guess is all three get through to states with Cullen
winning in a potentially down to the wire race (depending on how hard he needs
to go in the other individual events). I’ve got Reisenweaver for 2nd
and Keefe for 3rd with an SQS.
District 3 AAA
3200m
Morgan Cupp has been the best long
distance guy from District 3 dating back to the fall. He’s been consistent,
clutch and is proven to get better as the race gets longer. However, Cupp won’t
enter this race as the #1 seed – or even the #2 seed for that matter. Andrew
Foster of Ephrata dropped a monster time of 9:28.80 to change the script on the
district landscape. Now he will look to double down on that impressive result
but knocking off the favored Cupp.
Only three runners in this race have
run a season’s best under the SQS (Foster, Cupp and Conestoga Valley’s Nathan
Grucelski) and only one other guy is within 10 seconds of the time, so it seems
likely that only the top 5 in this race will be state qualifiers. I feel pretty
comfortable slating the top four in this field to advance. Ian Miller of
Manheim is an indoor state medalist with a lot of 3200 experience so far this
spring. He’s super talented and, even if he doesn’t come out with the win, I
don’t see him falling outside the top 5. Cupp is my pick to win and I believe
in Foster and Grucelski enough to have each advancing. So then it just comes
down to the #5 spot.
Carlisle as a herd of guys ready to
take on the challenge. Drew Barefield leads the pack with a 9:44 best (he’s the
#5 seed), but they also have Casey Padgett (9:47), Cade Rush (9:49) and Jack
Wisner (9:53) available. Wisner is the most talented of this group, but has
some important races on his schedule for the next day so I think he will likely
be in cruise control. That being said, he could still clocking a high 9:30s
time and sneak into the top 5 (but he won’t run this at states unless he has no
other option). I honestly think any of these four Carlisle guys could cross the
line first and, considering the potential for team tactics, I like the chances
of one of them breaking through for a top 5 finish.
But my pick for the 5th
spot is going to be Jake Underwood of Wilson. I think he has the most potential
and, although he’s only the #10 seed, I see him bettering that mark with a
strong race. Jake was 5th last year in this event, edging out Morgan
Cupp for what would have been the last spot to states (Kole scratched to open
the door for Cupp to advance).
Other sleepers include Brandan
Knepper of Mechanicsburg (awesome XC season, trains with Cupp, waiting for that
breakthrough time), Max Lessans of Hempfield and Chris Scharf of Elizabethtown.
My picks for states (in order) are
Cupp, Grucelski, Foster, Miller and Underwood. This will be an important race
for Cupp. If he pulls away for a big win, it will be clear he’s ready to do
something big against Rusty and Noah. If it’s a tight battle to the line, the back
end of the medal picture gets a lot more crowded.
4x800m
Seeing this performance list, I was surprised by how
little teams are sub 8. It feels like it’s been a deeper year for the 4x8 in
District 3, but only Ephrata is under 8 minutes. That Ephrata team, by the way,
is a heavy favorite to win the gold. I’d be shocked to see them outside of the
pole position at any point in this race (assuming Shue is leading off as usual)
and I suspect they will be gearing up for a run at a state championship. So
let’s instead consider who the four (or more) teams joining them in Shippensburg
could be.
I think a lot of this teams have big potential.
Cumberland Valley has always been near the top of my list for 4x8 programs and
they’ve got a well balanced attack that I think can scare 8 minutes in the
right race. Twin Valley has three guys who have already cracked two minutes in
the open, led by Dylan Servis. They kind of feel like this year’s Lower
Dauphin. When it clicks, they are going to drop a really fast time. Hempfield
and Manheim were surprise qualifiers last year and posted sub 8 times when the
pressure was on. I can definitely see them pulling something like that out
again. I haven’t seen as much from Lower Dauphin as I did last year, but they
should be contenders as well.
Honestly, when I saw Nothern in the #2 position, I couldn’t
even remember where they ran that time. This squad was totally off my radar so
I’m naturally going to undervalue them going into this race. I’m really looking
forward to seeing what they can do on this big stage, hopefully dropping a sub
8 mark with Ephrata to chase.
I had a tough time with this one (especially factoring in
Manheim Township could be split out from the fast heat), but ultimately here’s
my best guess: Ephrata, Twin Valley, Cumberland Valley and Hempfield are the
top 5. There may be an additional 1 or 2 teams under 8:02, but I’ll go
conservative and say only these 5 advance.
1600m
This race is going to be wild. I really feel like a wide
variety of guys could go out and win this one. Cupp is the #1 seed and,
considering his accomplishments to date, may be the favorite. However, I don’t
see him as a true speed guy in the same way I see some of others. I anticipate
this race being a bit more tactical with kickers ending up playing a big role.
I think the winner is going to end up being either Connor
Shields (1:55 speed) or Jack Wisner of Carlisle. Those two are both juniors so
maybe they are a year away from being ready to take this title, but I think
they have the talent and potential to win it. I lean toward Shields as he is
going to be fresher and he’s got the better raw speed on paper.
The tier of Ermold, Dorenkamp, and Groff is most
interesting to me. These are all mid 4:20s type guys who have the potential for
a breakthrough. Groff and Dorenkamp may end up on their 4x8s which scares me
(that’s a tricky double), but Ermold should be fresh and was a state qualifier
last year. He’s one of my sleepers.
I like Matt Carroll as a deep sleeper. The sophomore has
only run 4:29 this year, but he’s a big talent who really showed up in crunch
time during cross country. This young Palmyra squad is a team of the future in
the district.
Ultimately, I’ve got Shields, Wisner, Grucelski, Cupp as
the top 4, with Cupp likely (?) to not put his name in for states to focus on
the 3200. I’m throwing John David Lane in the top 5 as well as he’s been
consistently strong this season. The West Perry senior could be a dark horse
for the gold. After that, I’ll throw Ermold in at #6 and say he sneaks under
the SQS and gets a spot in Shippensburg. Someone will need to keep the pace
relatively quick so it’s not overly tactical, but I think that happens
somewhere along the way.
800m
Tyler Shue has been close to untouchable in the 800 this
year. His outdoor best is 1:54.87, but he ran 1:53 indoors for 2nd
in the state (on the double). He’s also split a 1:52 lead off leg at the Penn
Relays. I’d be surprised to see him knocked off. The more interesting question
to me is how he will do at states as he is among the favorites for gold right
now in my mind. A big time here would cement that status.
Shields and Wisner are the #2 and #3 seeds, but I’ve got
both guys being big factors in the 1600 final which is going to hurt their
chances in this race. Keep in mind this will be Wisner’s third race of the
weekend. Although I’m a fan of both guy’s talents, I don’t think either is a
lock for the top 5.
Jack Baker has been consistently strong all season. I
think he advances and maybe clicks something really fast this weekend or next.
I wouldn’t rule out a drop into the 1:54s (or faster) in the right race. He
always seems to stick his nose in the mix and contend.
After these guys, that next tier is a little more open.
If Ephrata cruises in the 4x8, Alex Morales should be a bit fresher for an
attempt at state qualifying. Servis and Mauerer’s qualifying chances could also
be tied to the relay. Maurer has been a strong racer so far this year and I
like his upside as a sleeper state qualifier in this event.
My picks for this event are: Shue, Baker, Maurer, Kramer,
Shields. I think only the top 5 will end running fast enough to qualify for
states. It could be a blanket finish for the final state qualifying spot
between a number of guys which will make this one of the most exciting races of
the weekend.
Grucelski is a scratch in the 3200.
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