District 4 AAA
4x800m
In AAA, only one squad will be allowed to go through to
the state championships automatically and, although we saw Williamsport run
under the SQS at times last year, my bet is that only one team will survive
districts. Jersey Shore is the clear #1 seed, having run 8:14 (which is #1 in
the district by some 13 seconds). However, they didn’t list Isaac Davis for the
relay which could potentially impact their results (I’m not sure if Davis
usually runs on the squad, but I’d think he’s got sub 2 ability on the right
day). That opens the door for Williamsport who, as the defending champions, has
an extra element of pride on the line. Although they’ve only run 8:29 this
year, Willaimsport boasts the district’s #1 800 runner in Jared Thompson and
returns experienced relay piece Tyler Holcomb. I think that, ultimately,
Williamsport will end up with the top spot in the final standings and return to
the state championship.
Shikellamy has the chance to be interesting if they load
up their roster and can build around the Hallman-Strouse combination. They’ve
only run 8:36, slotting them in the 4th seed, but they could likely
run much faster if their other pieces are ready to step up.
3200m
Assuming Davis doesn’t line up for the 4x4, the AA state
champion from Cross will start is championships on Saturday with the 3200.
Davis is a big favorite, boasting a season’s best of 9:24 that slots him 44
seconds ahead of the next best runners. The real test for Davis in this event
will likely come at states where he will be an interesting wildcard in a field
that has been largely dominated by Beveridge and Kujdych. I’ll save my Davis
thoughts for that race (which I may be overconfident we get to see).
In the battle for second, I like Doug Hallman and Tyler
Holcomb as the primary contenders. Both have had excellent seasons and have
strong XC resumes (plus they were second and third last year). Maybe they can
ride behind Davis to a state qualifying time, but that would take a big
season’s best for either runner. More likely, they will mix it up, grab a PR
and end their season on a high note. There’s a frosh, a junior and three
sophomores seeded in the top 8 so lots of guys can make statements and have
something to build on heading into next season.
1600m
Davis’s second race has a chance to be much more
noteworthy. Although Isaac is the defending champ and boasts serious stamina,
Logan Strouse of Shikellamy may have the speed to take him down. Strouse was
second to Davis in last year’s championships (trailing by 7 seconds), but he’s improved
a ton relative to their last match up. Strouse boasts a season’s best of
4:28.13 and has proven he knows how to win big meets. I don’t anticipate him
backing down from Davis and, depending on how much the Jersey Shore senior
pours into his first race, Strouse may be able to spring the upset.
I’m taking Davis for the win, but I’m excited to see how
Strouse handles the state champ. By the way, Strouse may get to states even if
he finishes second with the state standard. A year ago, Davis scratched the
1600 to focus on the longer distance which opened a spot for the silver
medalist (which, as you may remember, was Strouse). I’m guessing that,
regardless of who leaves with gold, Strouse will be the one representing the
district at states.
800m
As mentioned, Williamsport’s Jared Thompson has been #1
in the district this year, clocking a 1:56.84 best in the two lap race. That
slots him 3 second ahead of his closest competitor, Logan Strouse, who will
have to double off the mile. Of course Thompson will be busy as well-he’s
slated to run the 400 about 2 hours before the 8. I think that will end up
being enough time for Thompson to recover and claim gold, but you never know
how doubling will go in a major championship like this one.
From the fresher group will be Joey Olah of Shamokin and
Chase Carpenter of Jersey Shore. It would take a big day for one of these guys
to surprise and jump into state qualifying position, but they have scheduled
themselves in a way that maximizes their chances. Ultimately, my pick to
advance is Thompson, but don’t expect this to necessarily be as easy as it
looks on paper.
District 4 AA
4x800m
District 4 guarantees two spots per event, but the 4x800
seems poised to push through many more. This event is absolutely loaded,
starting at the very top with the boys from Mifflinburg. Four seniors make up
the Mifflinburg roster including 1:55 man Tyler Bailey. Their season best to
date of 8:04 is among the best in the state. A year ago, Mifflinburg took 6th
at states with a time of 8:03.71, but they look miles ahead of that pace so far
and return all four guys from that relay. With Seneca’s dominant squad out of
the picture, it seems like Mifflinburg has just as good a chance as any to
steal state gold at Shippensburg.
But first they will have to survive a crowded district
field. Mifflinburg did not leave last year’s championships with gold as that
honor belonged to Warrior Run. Warrior Run, who returns three members of its
own from last year state medal winners, is seeded just behind Mifflinburg at
8:06. They’ve been steadily closing the gap in recent weeks and seem poised to
spring a similar upset to the one they did last year.
Mount Caramel also qualified for states last year and
finished just outside the medals in 9th. They too are a team on the
rise with three returners from last year’s state squad. Tyler Adams has really
made a nice jump into an elite relay piece and the team on the whole has a lot
of confidence after their excellent XC run. The wild card in the equation could
be Krystof Lapotsky, a sophomore with a ton of talent. They’ve run 8:08 already
this year.
Danville (state medal winners last year, always
dangerous) has already dropped an 8:09. Milton has only run 8:17 to date, but
has perhaps the best AA 800 runner in the entire state in Tyler Leeser. This
team has a history of coming together at the right time and they have a ton of
talent. Sub 8:10 seems pretty reasonable given their depth. Lewisburg is an
always formidable program (but two frosh and a soph on the roster) and
Loyalsock cannot be discounted either (8:14 last year, one of the best teams in
the state for AA during XC). So that is 7 teams all with the potential to crack
the 8:15 state qualifying barrier.
My prediction is that all seven teams get under. Has
there ever been a district meet with 7 AA 4x8s under 8:10? That seems pretty
outlandish, but it definitely could happen when the meet action kicks off. And,
because the 4x8 is on Thursday and the rest of the major distance events aren’t
until Saturday, the guys can go all out on the relays without it affecting
their individual events.
I’m most excited to see how Mifflinburg handles the
pressure. They’ve been the best team in the district all season, but other
squads are hunting them down. Will they make a statement with a sub 8 minute
clocking? Or will they get hunted down once again? Honestly, I gave Milton a
lot of consideration for the gold just because I think if they can keep it
close for Leeser we could see a monster split (I’m thinking 1:51-1:52 if he’s
in the right spot). Here’s my final order (all 7 punching tickets):
Mifflinburg, Milton, Mount Caramel, Danville, Warrior
Run, Loyalsock, Lewisburg
Hoping for at least one sub 8, but maybe we get two.
3200m
Two days after the 4x8, Loyalosck will look to show their
dominance on the longer platform. They enter with the top two seeds and three
runners under 10 minutes. Quinn Serfass, a state medalist last year in this
event, leads all seeds at 9:39 and should be the favorite for gold. The bigger
question for him should be how he stacks up in Shippensburg. After Serfass the
battle gets much more interesting. Keep in mind that, unless the race is quick,
only the top 2 guys are guaranteed a spot at states. Otherwise, they need under
9:48. The race was deep last year too, but nobody dipped under 9:50.
This year, I think we will see the top 3 finishers under
the SQS, with potential for more. The Loyalsock pack can only get to states if
the pace is fast enough, so I would guess they will work together to make sure
Sullivan and Quintana at least have a chance at the time. This shouldn’t be
super tactical. Those three helping keep the pace in a good spot (maybe Serfass
even paces them through the first mile or so) should really help the other bubble
guys if they keep this team in sight. I’m high on Lapotsky for a big
breakthrough, but Kevin Heeman could also make noise.
My guess for states? I think Serfass wins with Sullivan
taking second place. Then I think it’s going to be a close race with the clock
for Lapotsky and Quintana. Ultimately, I’m going with Lapotsky to sneak in and
Quintana to just miss out, but I would be amped to see three Loyalsock guys
line up in Shippensburg.
1600m
Tyler Leeser won’t have quite as ambitious of a schedule
this year as he did last (when he won 3200, 1600, 400 and 800 on the same day),
but he’s still going to be busy. He will try the 1600-800 double that he
attempted at states last year with hopes of winning both events (and contending
for medals in Shippensburg). Leeser has been a prominent figure in the 800 this
year, emerging as the state favorite, but his 1600 hasn’t been as much of a
point of discussion. That being said, the senior with a 4:16 PR has run 4:22 already
(faster than he had run to this point last year) and has a seed time 5 seconds
ahead of anyone else. With his speed and proven ability, he’s likely to take a
second straight district title.
But don’t sleep on Ethan Knoebel. The junior is in the
middle of his best ever season of racing and he’s clocked a 4:27 to date.
Knoebel was 3rd last year (running 4:25) and 3rd in the
800. Plus he qualified for the state finals, taking 11th overall-all
as just a sophomore. This year, he’s been a district champ in XC, a
consistently strong competitor and overall his confidence has to be higher. I’m
not sure he will have the raw ability to take down Leeser, but if the Milton
senior isn’t focused, Ethan won’t sit back and roll over.
Quinn Serfass tried the 32-16 double a year ago and ended
up a state qualifier in both events. He will look for similar success in this
event, having already clocked 4:28 this year. Serfass has doubled a lot over
the course of this season and always seems to have something in the tank so I
trust his ability to produce a quality race. That being said, it will take
something super human to knock off Leeser and Knoebel. We will see what he has
saved after the longer race earlier in the day.
If things hold to form and those three stay atop the
standings, there may not be any more state spots to hand out. However, I think
one other runner will end up surprising. Danville is so well coached and always
seems to click at the right time. That makes me think we might see a big day
from Jacob Foster (currently seeded just off the SQS at 4:31.55). Quenton Long
of the loaded Mifflinburg mid distance squad is another sleeper candidate.
Plus, the Loyalsock duo of Sullivan and Quintana could contend if the 32 sits
OK in their legs.
My guess? Leeser wins with Knoebel second and Serfass
under the SQS in third. I’m also going to bet Jacob Foster and Quenton Long hit
the qualifying standard and get into the meet. Hopefully the weather is OK for
those two as I feel they have some serious upside.
800m
If things go as I suspect in the 4x800, this could be an
epic rematch between the anchor legs. Tyler Leeser, who holds the best time in
the district at 1:54.28, will face off with another Tyler, Tyler Bailey of
Mifflinburg. Bailey has quietly run a season best of 1:55.63 and is within
striking distance of the seemingly invincible Leeser. Plus, he’s going to have
the fresher pair of legs as he won’t be contesting any events prior to this
one. Last year, Leeser won the title in just 1:58. Weather permitting, I’d be
shocked to see the gold medal winner coasting across in anything above 1:56.
Griffin Sites has a chance to turn heads in this event as
well. He’s an aggressive racer with some serious foot speed. His best to date
is 1:58.59, but that’s well ahead of his positioning prior to districts last
season. He finished off his 2017 campaign with a brilliant stretch run that
included a 1:57.80 PR for the last medal spot at states. My hunch says Sites
gets down to 1:56 or faster before this year is over. Maybe that happens this
weekend.
The 4x8 boys Tyler Adams (Mount Caramel), Addison Magyar
(Warrior Run), Kellan Guinn-Bailey (Milton) and Matt Nickolaus (Loyalsock) are
all 2 flat or faster. Plus it looks like they will all contest to event fresh.
Considering the depth out front, it wouldn’t surprise me if any (or all?) of
these guys gets pulled to a time under the SQS and gets to go to Shippensburg.
The doubling Ethan Knoebel could figure into that equation as well if his legs
are still underneath him. This district had just 1 guy under the SQS last year,
but they have a chance at 6-8 with this talented group.
My prediction is Leeser wins a close one with Tyler
Bailey and Sites gives it a good run for 3rd. He and Tyler Adams
both advance on time to the state championships. Whoever ends up in 5th
will be knocking on the door as well, potentially dipping under. I’ll be
conservative and say it’s just the top 4 who get to states so this way somebody
can drop the #DerailTheTrain on me on Sunday.
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