District 2 Championship Preview

District 2 AA

http://www.piaad2.org/docs/2018%20District%20II%20Track%20Boys%20AA%20Program.pdf

4x800m

This match-up is setting up to be a sneaky good one. A year ago, Holy Redeemer absolutely rolled through the competition with an 8:25 and punched a ticket to states. Once they got there, they dropped all the way down to 8:02 and took 4^th in the state. They return some key legs from that team (looks like two – Dominic Capaci and Lucas Volpetti) and enter as the #1 seed this year (at 8:26). However, they aren’t a lock for the state championship. Montrose, the district champs in A during XC, have run 8:29 and have a stacked line-up of their own should they choose to use it. You can make a good argument that Montrose is a little more distance based than speed based, which could hurt them in a 4x4, but they were a deep, complete team during XC that has been solid during the track season as well. For both teams to make states, the team to watch will be 8:15.55.

My pick is Holy Redeemer to win and get the auto spot. I think Montrose will be around that 8:15 in second, but ultimately just misses out on a ticket. Their focus may be tilted toward other events.

1600m

Speaking of those other focuses for Montrose, the 1600 is setting up to be a brilliant race. XC rivals Andrew Healey of Holy Cross and Brandon Curely of Montrose will hit the track as will fellow top 10 state XC finisher Liam Mead. Liam’s brother Zach was the champ a year ago with Curley in the runner up spot (but over the state qualifying standard).

I think Healey has been excellent this season, dating back to XC where he was a tight 4^th in the state. His best event may be the 3200 (where he is also the #1 seed), but he’s shown nice improvement at 1600 as well. His 4:27 seed time came a week ago in a blazing fast race that featured Tyler Wirth and Kyle Burke (who ran 4:14 and 4:16). Healey got out aggressively and held on to a PR. He can run a more controlled race this week (especially with a second race on his agenda) and perhaps improve on that 4:27 best.

Curley and Mead, who also ran their season’s bests in that 1600 race, are familiar with Healey having raced him since the XC season. Curley’s had Healey’s number at the district meets and in a head to head race with all his focus on the 1600 could potentially pull the upset. Liam Mead will be the sleeper. During the fall he showed a knack for peaking at the right time and I suspect having his teammate alongside him (Curley) will be a big boost.

My guess is all three of these guys hit the SQS and punch state tickets. It’s unclear to me if Healey will try the double at states (may depend on how his 3200 goes and what happens around the state). I’m going to pick Curley for the upset win by a nose over Healey with Mead dipping under 4:31 in 3^rd.

800m

A year ago Matt Kinback was the breakout star from the District 800 as he started his journey to 5^th in the state with a 1:59 at districts. This year, Dominic Capaci of Holy Redeemer hopes to follow in his footsteps. As mentioned, Holy Redeemer is a favorite in the 4x8 and Capaci will likely be doubling, but he was doubled up last year when he ran 2:00.18 and took 2^nd in the district. He enters as the #1 seed. Close behind him in the seeding is Sebastian Brudnicki of Mid Valley. Seb is just a sophomore but a 2:02.19 is a strong time. We saw him take 6^th in the district as a frosh (cutting 3 seconds off his seed) and with the competition available to him at the championships, it’s not crazy to envision a sub 2 run out of this kid. The SQS he will be chasing is 1:59.70.

Experienced qualifiers like Riley Newman of Lake Lehman and Jack Malay of Mmi Prep will also look to factor in along with a long list of doublers (or triplers) like Curley, Mead, Pasake and more. I’m putting my money on Capaci for the win and the lone state qualifying spot, but Brudnicki is an interesting sleeper to remember.

3200m

As I’ve indicated, Andrew Healey has a chance to do big things in this event. He’s the defending champ and was 9^th in the state last year as just a frosh. His season best is 9:44, but I think he could be in the 9:20s by the time the season ends. But if Healey is going to get to states, he will have to survive this field on tired legs after what should be a thrilling 1600 match up with the Montrose boys. The good news is, Healey proved he can double (he ran sub 10 after his 4:27 on the 8^th). But you can never count out the competition. Pay particular attention to Peyton Jones of Elk Lake. He was a state medalist during XC and comes from a school with a long history of producing elite distance running. Jones is closest to Healey by seed time and, it appears, has the freshest legs.

All that being said, I’d still bet on Healey for the win in this race and I’m not sure he’s pulling anyone to that SQS time. Barring a scratch from this event, I think Andrew will be the lone state qualifier and try to follow in Rico Galassi’s footsteps in Shippensburg.

District 2 AAA

http://www.piaad2.org/docs/2018%20District%20II%20Track%20Boys%20AAA%20Program.pdf

4x800m

A year ago, Wallenpaupack was inches for the state championships in the 4x800. Despite a herculean anchor from then sophomore Tyler Wirth, the boys came up just 0.05 seconds short of the gold as the always formidable Dallas boys took gold. This year, the AAA XC champs are poised for revenge – and they likely won’t need a 1:53 from Wirth to do it this time around. Wallenpaupack comes in as the top seed with an 8:19 and no other squads are under 8:30 (Del Vall is second). Abington Heights could be dangerous (3^rd seed at 8:33), but they don’t list boy of their big dogs on the relay as Kyle Burke will have individual focuses. That likely takes them out of contention for the win and the SQS.

We can’t count out Dallas in this one. The defending champions are into the meet with a seed time but return Josh Wyandt and Adam Borton from last year’s gold medal relay. Wyandt provided their fastest split a year ago and was the one to hold off Wirth in the final stretch.

All that being said, this feels like Wallenpaupack’s year. They are a deeper team and still have the best individual runner. I think they will take the one and only state spot from this event.

1600m

This is setting up to be the race of the day. Tyler Wirth and Kyle Burke, two state qualifiers from this event a year ago, are back for a rematch with the stakes much higher this time around. Last year, Burke won in 4:22, using a 60 second last lap to edge out Wirth (who, as mentioned, was coming off a 1:53 split). At that time, Wirth and Burke were both relatively under the radar guys. However, this year they’ve risen to among the best in the state. Burke, after qualifying for states indoors, ran a 4:16 for 1600. Wirth, a medalist in the last two state championships, was even faster with a 4:14! This race could have state championship implications for these two stars.

I’m not sure we will see quite the same blazing times at districts (especially because both runners have other events on their radar), but seeing these two go head to head should be brilliant. I’d be surprised to see either left out of the state meet and this pair should be well ahead of the competition.

Wallenpaupack’s super frosh Dieter Burckes and the aforementioned Josh Wyandt of Dallas lead the primary contenders for an upset. You also can’t count out the talent from guys like Mitchell Martin of Berwick even if he’s further down the performance list. I’d be surprised to see anyone from this group under 4:25, but they have a chance to ride the fast pace and get a new PR in this meet.

I’ll pick Wirth for revenge in the 1600, hoping that he can save a little bit during the 4x8 so he has enough to steal the title back from Burke. I expect both guys to punch state tickets, but my guess is it will only be those two.

800m

In 2017, it was Tyler Wirth who announced himself to the state with a breakthrough performance at Shippensburg’s invitational. This year, it was district mate Mitchell Forgash of Wyoming Valley West. Forgash clocked a 1:56.10 for the victory and he is now the #1 seed in this event and a favorite for a state qualifying spot. Consistent with the theme to date, Forgash just barely missed out on a district title and, therefore, a state qualifying spot, when he finished second at this meet last year. Forgash ran 1:58.51 and was second by just 0.02. He’s made big strides since then and projects to, at the very least, hit the SQS to assure himself a spot in Ship this year.

His primary challenger will be Wallenpaupack’s Tyler Wirth. In what projects to be his third race of the day, Wirth will go for the district title against Forgash. Wirth’s season best is comparable (1:56.26) and he actually ran that in the same race as Forgash (just 0.16 back from him) after running 9:37 in the 3200.

If Wirth can pull off the double gold by beating Burke and Forgash, that would be a huge statement. I think he’s actually got a pretty good shot to do it, but I’ll give the slight edge to Forgash.

Don’t count out Abington Height’s senior Dan Uhranowsky. He ran 1:58.74 in this event last year, doubling off a 4:23 1600, and was in the mix for the gold. His season’s best is 1:59 which puts him a few ticks back of the leaders, but in a championship style race that doesn’t necessarily mean much. I could see Uhranowsky putting his nose in it and, if things break right, maybe he pulls off an upset. Another sleeper worth noting is Crestwood’s Matt Brunetti who is seeded 5^th.

Ultimately, I’ve got Forgash and Wirth punching the two state qualifying tickets with marks under the SQS. Uhranowsky could be on the bubble, but I have him just missing. I’m not 100% sold that Wirth will try the 16-8 double at states (and potentially not even this meet if he is happy with his results in the longer distance) so could change the game up to opening a qualifying spot for 2^nd place if Wirth wins in a time slower than the state cut off.

3200m

Unsurprisingly, Wallenpaupack’s Tyler Wirth is among the favorites in this distance event as well. He ran a 9:37 at Shippensburg which makes him the #2 seed. However, after a busy slate to start the day (he’s entered in the 4x8, 16 and 8), it seems unlikely to me that we see Wirth line up for this race when he could conserve a bit of energy before states. That really opens the door for Kyle Burke who has a 9:28 best and owns 4:16 mile speed (he also may have split a sub 50 400 if I read recent splits right). This seems like Burke’s race to lose and, if he feels good and runs something quick, maybe he gives it some consideration for states. If not for that 4:16 he ran against Wirth, I would have thought this event gave him a better shot at a state medal.

The race alongside Burke will be more compelling. Mitchell Martin has run 9:46 (he’s also entered in the 16) and has consistently proven himself in XC as a strong long distance competitor. Mitchell Rome was also a force during XC who ran sub 16 in the 5k. His best to date is 9:53, some 22 seconds short of the SQS, but he has the talent to drop a big PR.

There’s a scenario where Burke and Wirth either both scratch this event at districts or (more likely) both scratch it at states which means that, even if Martin or Rome (or whoever else) is a distant third in the closing stages of the race, they still need to run like a state spot is on the line. I could definitely see a 9:40ish time getting you into the state meet if Burke and Wirth put their focus elsewhere.

My guess is Burke wins, Wirth scratches and 2^nd place (I’ll say Rome) is not quite fast enough to punch a ticket to states on his own. Then we just wait to see how the scratches unfold to determine who is the District’s state qualifier.