District 11 AA
4x800m
A year ago Notre Dame and Tamaqua were the state
qualifiers for this event and, perhaps unsurprisingly, those two squads are
poised to return to the state championships again. They are the most experienced
squads and have the clear top seeds in the field. However, don’t ignore this
race as it could have big state medalist implications. Notre Dame has already
run 8:13 this season and Tamaqua has clocked an 8:18. I’ve been a big Notre
Dame guy since XC and think their core is very strong (particularly Sheamus
Hammerstein who was a monster during the XC season). But Tamaqua has two of the
top 3 seeds in the open 800 and, if they can find the depth, could be near 8:05
by states.
The top two automatically qualify from this district so I
see these two getting in. But the times could end up being quite fast with the
district championship bragging rights on the line. I say Notre Dame wins it,
but Tamaqua has some really dangerous anchor potential.
3200m
The 3200 under the lights will close out the first day of
the District 11 championships. It happens about 3.5 hours after the 4x8 is
complete so that double is possible although not particularly easy. The top two
finishers in the event are assured a spot to states so, although no one in the
field has eclipsed the SQS yet, the district will send two guys through to
Shippensburg.
Wayne Reilly is the defending champion and, after finishing
second in the district during XC, is likely the favorite. However, new up and
coming sophomore Luis Velazquez enters at the top seed with a time of 10:05.
The Shenandoah runner was 12th in the district during XC but has
proven he has that extra speed on the track to put himself into
contention. Reilly is seeded just behind
him at 10:10.
Personally, I get the feeling we are going to see an
upset from one of the guys further down the performance list. The AA XC
District Champ, John Koons, is seeded fourth, but will have to double off the
4x8 relay. I think Dylan McNichol and Travis Anderson are both strong
contenders for a qualifying spot. Anderson is younger (just a soph), but
impressed me during his XC campaign. McNichol has been consistently strong
throughout his career and a district championship would be a fitting end for the
senior. Deeper down the list, #9 seed Scott Zoscin may be just a freshman, but
he’s one of the biggest talents in the field. If things click for him, don’t be
surprised to see a top 3 finish.
For my picks, I’ll take McNichol for the win and Koons
for the silver, but I’m taking a bit of a shot in the dark on this one. It’s a
wide open race and two guys I didn’t even mention will probably end up the
state qualifiers.
1600m
In the middle distances, there has been no one more
dominant than Jacob Martinez. A state qualifier last year in this event, Jacob
has turned it up a notch during his junior year. He won the District
championship in XC (for A) and has bests of 4:26 and 1:59 this spring. His seed
time is 10 seconds better than the field and his accolades make him a favorite
not just for gold here, but also for a spot in the state finals (although the
AA 1600 field is projected to be quite deep).
Behind Martinez, the battle for a state spot is a bit
more wide open. It doesn’t appear that anyone else will drop below the 4:31
state qualifying standard so it will be a pure head to head race to decide the qualifier.
A few guys are doubling back from the 3200 the night before which could hurt
their qualifying chances (McNichol, Anderson, Coppolella and Reilly are among
this group). Shane Artis seems like the pick. Although he is a sophomore, he’s
run 4:36.0 and has fresh legs. Salisbury has had their share of success stories
in this event in recent years, highlighted by Kyle Gonoude.
800m
Martinez will go for double gold at Districts as the top
seed in the 1600 and the 800. However, the 800 should be a much trickier battle
to win. Defending champion Brad Clemson will have fresher legs as he sets up
for the duel with Martinez. These two are the top seeds and the only guys with
bests under 2 minutes. It feels like they will be the state qualifiers.
However, I really like the emerging talent of Derian Stianche of Tamaqua. As a
sophomore last year, Stianche was 7th overall after winning the
slower section in 2:08.16. Now he’s at 2:00.42 for an open best and I think he
and Clemson could be on their way to a 1-2 finish. I’ve actually got Stianche
taking the win overall in this one in a super tight race. I’ll go with Clemson
by a nose for the silver over Martinez. There’s a decent chance this race is
fast enough that all three guys have the opportunity to qualify for states, but
I’m going to predict only the top 2 are fast enough to qualify.
District 11 AAA
4x800m
In theory, this race should belong to Parkland. They’ve
got the best two guys in the district for 800 meters and they are the defending
champions. Personally, I think they are talented enough to make the state
championship final in this event. Parkland enters as the #1 seed with an 8:07
and I think they take things home on District Friday.
Despite Parkland’s big potential, there are multiple
teams within striking distance. Nazareth comes in at 8:11 with Southern Lehigh
(8:14) and Pleasant Valley (8:14) also lurking. It seems like one of those
three teams will get the other automatic state qualifying spot and the rest
will go home (Stroudsburg could also be in the mix if they have a big day). I
lean toward Southern Lehigh with Thomas Matsumura as a potential game changer
on the anchor leg. I still remember Lehigh’s surprising turn at the XC district
champs two years back which may be weighing too much on my mind for this one,
but I like the squad. Pleasant Valley is perhaps the most consistent across
their 4 legs, but I need to see a breakout performance from one leg to keep them
in it (perhaps a big split from Jon Mickens). It’s worth noting that this relay
was the second place finishers last year behind Parkland. Nazareth has the most
upside, Blake Samsel is a sub 2 leg on paper.
3200m
The stretch run for District 11 cross country really
threw me for a loop this year and I’ve got a feeling this championship 3200 is
going to make me similarly surprised. Joseph Ozgar of Easton has emerged as the
favorite thanks to a 9:38 season best that tops the field. But Ozgar is going
to have his hands full with a deep field behind him. Ethan Bernstein and Colin
Cramer are the top two returners from last year’s meet, with Cramer owning a
best of 9:33. They were also both monsters during XC, Bernstein claiming a
medal in AA. I’d say those two are probably the favorites for the two automatic
qualifying spots.
However, you have to take a good look at Easton’s other
top runner Sean Guydish. The senior caught fire at the end of the fall and
finished in the top 50 at states. He’s got a 9:46 best, making him the #4 seed,
and I have this sneaking suspicion he may be on the verge of similar magic to
close out the spring. Easton junior Cosmo Cardone is also in the field with a
9:49 best. That Easton pack could do some damage working together in this tight
field. Also keep an eye on Parkland’s Nicholas Bower. The junior is a huge
talent who is also in the sub 9:50 club this year. He was 6th as a
sophomore last year, one spot ahead of Ozgar.
This is a really tricky one to pick, but I’ll go out on a
limb and pick Cramer to win with Guydish to take second. My hope is that this
race gets moving at a fast enough pace that maybe D11 can send three guys to
states. Nobody has the previous best to indicate 9:31 is easy, but with all of
these guys pushing each other, maybe something magical happens.
1600m
If Ozgar doesn’t get a state qualifying spot in the 3200,
he will be hoping to try again in the 16. Ozgar is the #2 seed with a time of
4:29 and should be in the mix for an auto bid in what again projects to be a
wide open field. At the front, I lean Southern Lehigh once again as Thomas
Matsumura, the #1 seed, is my pick for gold. He was just barely denied the victory
at this meet last year when Collin Ebling outlasted him by just 0.02 in a
brilliant finish. This year, Ebling isn’t in the race which should open the
door for Matsumura to have his day.
The battle for second is anybody’s guess. There are four
guys between 4:29 and 4:31, three of which are projected to run the 3200 the night
before. Matt Bodon of Stroudsburg, who should be on 4x8 duties, is the non-32
guy who comes in as the #4 seed at 4:30. I think Bodon would be my pick for the
last qualifying spot as things stand. I don’t see this race being fast enough
to push a third runner through (I’m not sure even the winner gets under 4:24)
so state spots may come down to the wire.
800m
Collin Ebling will be the star to watch at the District
11 championships. One of the breakout stars from indoors, Ebling has somehow
become just another name in the state 800 mix as many of the east coast guys
start to breakout. But Collin has still been red hot, dropping a 400 time of
49.43 and an 800 of 1:55.03. He’ll try that double at districts with the two
races only projected to be 40 minutes apart!
This should be a huge test for Ebling who is not
guaranteed a victory in this 800. Sam Morgan of Parkland has emerged as a
dangerous contender after a 1:56.07 and the senior has ditched the 1600 to put
all his focus on this individual event. I’m actually leaning upset here with Morgan
my pick for the win. Collin has been excellent so far this season, but in a
championship setting I’m a little nervous about the 4-8 double. I hope that
Ebling can lock down a state qualifying spot with a 2nd place
finish, but I do think that Jacob Ringer of Parkland will be charging hard to
advance.
Heck of a season from Kevin Haas of Blue Mountain. The sophomore
enters as the fourth seed with a best of 1:59.82. He’s a real long shot to make
states, but this should be a golden opportunity for him to find a big PR. I
also like Jim Thorpe’s Sam Hydro as a potential surprise candidate for a top 5
spot in this race.
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