AA 1600m
The Stage
A year ago Winchester Thurston junior Tristan Forsythe
took control of this race early and never looked back as he clocked a personal
best 4:12 en route to his first individual state gold. Since then, Forsythe has
added a gold medal in cross country, a new PR in the 3200 and a trophy room
full of WPIAL related hardware. The senior seems confident, healthy (a key for
him) and poised for a second straight victory. It’s worth noting that the last
two juniors to win the AA title in this event were Domenic Perretta and Ryan
Smathers, both of whom retained their golds a year later (in slower times).
While Smathers (after the Jewett DQ) and Perretta entered
the state final as big favorites, there will definitely be some upset buzz
around Forsythe. For starters, Joe Cullen of Wyomissing is back in this race
again, after finishing second in this race last spring. He ran his personal
best of 4:13 last year with a massive last lap kick. If he can keep the gap a
bit tighter to Forsythe this season, he could surprise in the final meets.
There will also be plenty of buzz around Juniata super soph Garrett Baublitz.
As a freshman, Garrett made the state finals and ran under 4:20. This year, he
enters with a much better pre-states PR, a state medal from XC and plenty more
experience and confidence. Is the sophomore ready to make the leap to state
champion?
The Prelims
In case you missed it in the other posts, State
Championship Friday will feature the qualifying round for the sprint and (most)
distance finals. In the 1600, there will two heats with the top 4 in each heat
advancing automatically to Saturday’s final. After those 8 spots are claimed,
the next four fastest times are also pushed through, making for a 12 person
final.
So here’s my 12 picks for the final: Tristan Forsythe,
Garrett Baublitz, Joe Cullen, Ethan Knoebel, Andrew Stanley, Brandon Curely,
Gordon Pollock, Will Bucher, Jacob Martinez, Alex Patton, Dan Bici and Jonathan
Asay. I’m assuming, in this case, that we don’t see Forsythe or Pollock on
their 4x8, nor do we see Bici for Masterman or Stanley for Southern Huntingdon.
This field is pretty interesting to me. There’s some big
firepower out front, but the fight to make the finals (and chase a medal)
appears pretty wide open. There are only 25 entries with just 9 guys breaking
the SQS in qualifying. Typically, it will take mid to low 4:20s to get a state
medal so guys will either need to shed some time or we will see a slower than
average result. My guess is we see some PRs.
I gave some serious thought to the freshman in this field
– Colton Sands of Penns Valley and Ian Zimmerman of Northern Bedford, but
ultimately left both guys out of my projected final. Sands has a really fast
seed (4:28) and awesome distance strength. Plus, this kid has proven he doesn’t
run like a freshman in the big meets. This past fall he was the #1 guy for the
state champions in A. But I ultimately got scared off by the fact that he might
have a 4x8 to navigate. You’ll notice that’s a theme for me. I’m naturally
afraid of guys who attempt the 4x8-16 double. It’s really tight and, although
guys do it successfully every year (see Cullen or Owen Wing last year), it
doesn’t make it any less difficult (there’s plenty of non-success stories as
well).
The Finals
I’m interested to see what type of race Forsythe tries to
run. A year ago, he took the reigns early and never looked back. He blitzed a
4:12 that nobody else in the race could handle. That threw off my predictions
as I thought it would be more of a kicker’s race (I had Tyler Leeser winning
this race last year for the record). Will Tristan try the same strategy this
year? He’s clearly the strongest in the field based on XC and the 3200 and,
although he has capable 800 meter speed, his own teammate Gordon Pollock has
the fastest invite time of the Winchester Thurston boys. So I’m expecting
Forsythe to make a well timed surge and not leave this thing to chance in a
kick.
If anyone is going to beat Forsythe, I think it has to be
Cullen. There’s a small part of me that thinks he may get a shot at this race
fresh (Wyomissing may be deep enough to medal in the 4x8 without him). That
would make this race very interesting. However, if the 4x8 is a tooth and nail
fight to the finish between three teams (spoiler alert: that’s what I predicted
it would be), then that could leave Joe more tired than he was this time last
year. If Cullen wins, it will remind me a lot of the Alex Milligan victory from
a few years back and may take a similarly large PR (Milligan went from 4:16 to
4:10 after running a 1:52 anchor leg on the gold medal 4x8 to defeat all-timers
Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor).
Baublitz is awesome and really wow-ed me with his
performance last state meet as a freshman, but I don’t quite think he’s ready
to beat someone who is as experienced and accomplished as Forsythe. That being
said, Baublitz can hang on when the inevitable surge comes and respond when the
kicking happens, he’s got a real chance. Keep in mind, Garrett dropped a big 32
best this year (low 9:30s) and was a monster during XC. He’s got that extra
strength as a sophomore.
Gordon Pollock has a chance to really surprise in this
race. I’ve been super impressed with his results to date. I originally thought
that he should go for the 800 instead of the 16 considering how much success
he’s had in that event this year, but after reviewing the two fields, this was
a smart choice. He can run low 4:20s on the right day and has some of the best
sprint speed in the group. There is a world where Winchester Thurston goes 1-2
in this event and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we are living in the world come
Saturday afternoon.
Personally, I think Jacob Martinez of Palmerton has had a
monster season. He and Dan Bici are guys that you didn’t see their full 1600
potential at districts because they didn’t need to use it all in order to
advance. My guess is they cut a good amount of time off their seeds and mix it
up for the medals.
The big sleeper for a top 3 finish is Ethan Knoebel. This
junior has had a monster season and has sneaky good 800 wheels to pair with his
awesome 1600 ability. He’s picked up a lot of experience racing the loaded
District 4 and should be confident in his ability to advance through the
prelims to the finals (seeing as he did it last year). This year, I think he
takes the next step to the podium.
With all that in mind, here’s what I’ll give you for
predictions:
8. Martinez 4:26.94
7. Bucher 4:26.11
6. Curley 4:24.84
5. Knoebel 4:22.37
4. Pollock 4:21.95
3. Baublitz 4:17.03
2. Cullen 4:16.80
1. Forsythe 4:14.65
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