2018 State Previews: AA 1600m


AA 1600m
The Stage
A year ago Winchester Thurston junior Tristan Forsythe took control of this race early and never looked back as he clocked a personal best 4:12 en route to his first individual state gold. Since then, Forsythe has added a gold medal in cross country, a new PR in the 3200 and a trophy room full of WPIAL related hardware. The senior seems confident, healthy (a key for him) and poised for a second straight victory. It’s worth noting that the last two juniors to win the AA title in this event were Domenic Perretta and Ryan Smathers, both of whom retained their golds a year later (in slower times).

While Smathers (after the Jewett DQ) and Perretta entered the state final as big favorites, there will definitely be some upset buzz around Forsythe. For starters, Joe Cullen of Wyomissing is back in this race again, after finishing second in this race last spring. He ran his personal best of 4:13 last year with a massive last lap kick. If he can keep the gap a bit tighter to Forsythe this season, he could surprise in the final meets. There will also be plenty of buzz around Juniata super soph Garrett Baublitz. As a freshman, Garrett made the state finals and ran under 4:20. This year, he enters with a much better pre-states PR, a state medal from XC and plenty more experience and confidence. Is the sophomore ready to make the leap to state champion?

The Prelims
In case you missed it in the other posts, State Championship Friday will feature the qualifying round for the sprint and (most) distance finals. In the 1600, there will two heats with the top 4 in each heat advancing automatically to Saturday’s final. After those 8 spots are claimed, the next four fastest times are also pushed through, making for a 12 person final.

So here’s my 12 picks for the final: Tristan Forsythe, Garrett Baublitz, Joe Cullen, Ethan Knoebel, Andrew Stanley, Brandon Curely, Gordon Pollock, Will Bucher, Jacob Martinez, Alex Patton, Dan Bici and Jonathan Asay. I’m assuming, in this case, that we don’t see Forsythe or Pollock on their 4x8, nor do we see Bici for Masterman or Stanley for Southern Huntingdon.

This field is pretty interesting to me. There’s some big firepower out front, but the fight to make the finals (and chase a medal) appears pretty wide open. There are only 25 entries with just 9 guys breaking the SQS in qualifying. Typically, it will take mid to low 4:20s to get a state medal so guys will either need to shed some time or we will see a slower than average result. My guess is we see some PRs.

I gave some serious thought to the freshman in this field – Colton Sands of Penns Valley and Ian Zimmerman of Northern Bedford, but ultimately left both guys out of my projected final. Sands has a really fast seed (4:28) and awesome distance strength. Plus, this kid has proven he doesn’t run like a freshman in the big meets. This past fall he was the #1 guy for the state champions in A. But I ultimately got scared off by the fact that he might have a 4x8 to navigate. You’ll notice that’s a theme for me. I’m naturally afraid of guys who attempt the 4x8-16 double. It’s really tight and, although guys do it successfully every year (see Cullen or Owen Wing last year), it doesn’t make it any less difficult (there’s plenty of non-success stories as well).

The Finals
I’m interested to see what type of race Forsythe tries to run. A year ago, he took the reigns early and never looked back. He blitzed a 4:12 that nobody else in the race could handle. That threw off my predictions as I thought it would be more of a kicker’s race (I had Tyler Leeser winning this race last year for the record). Will Tristan try the same strategy this year? He’s clearly the strongest in the field based on XC and the 3200 and, although he has capable 800 meter speed, his own teammate Gordon Pollock has the fastest invite time of the Winchester Thurston boys. So I’m expecting Forsythe to make a well timed surge and not leave this thing to chance in a kick.

If anyone is going to beat Forsythe, I think it has to be Cullen. There’s a small part of me that thinks he may get a shot at this race fresh (Wyomissing may be deep enough to medal in the 4x8 without him). That would make this race very interesting. However, if the 4x8 is a tooth and nail fight to the finish between three teams (spoiler alert: that’s what I predicted it would be), then that could leave Joe more tired than he was this time last year. If Cullen wins, it will remind me a lot of the Alex Milligan victory from a few years back and may take a similarly large PR (Milligan went from 4:16 to 4:10 after running a 1:52 anchor leg on the gold medal 4x8 to defeat all-timers Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor).

Baublitz is awesome and really wow-ed me with his performance last state meet as a freshman, but I don’t quite think he’s ready to beat someone who is as experienced and accomplished as Forsythe. That being said, Baublitz can hang on when the inevitable surge comes and respond when the kicking happens, he’s got a real chance. Keep in mind, Garrett dropped a big 32 best this year (low 9:30s) and was a monster during XC. He’s got that extra strength as a sophomore.

Gordon Pollock has a chance to really surprise in this race. I’ve been super impressed with his results to date. I originally thought that he should go for the 800 instead of the 16 considering how much success he’s had in that event this year, but after reviewing the two fields, this was a smart choice. He can run low 4:20s on the right day and has some of the best sprint speed in the group. There is a world where Winchester Thurston goes 1-2 in this event and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we are living in the world come Saturday afternoon.

Personally, I think Jacob Martinez of Palmerton has had a monster season. He and Dan Bici are guys that you didn’t see their full 1600 potential at districts because they didn’t need to use it all in order to advance. My guess is they cut a good amount of time off their seeds and mix it up for the medals.

The big sleeper for a top 3 finish is Ethan Knoebel. This junior has had a monster season and has sneaky good 800 wheels to pair with his awesome 1600 ability. He’s picked up a lot of experience racing the loaded District 4 and should be confident in his ability to advance through the prelims to the finals (seeing as he did it last year). This year, I think he takes the next step to the podium.

With all that in mind, here’s what I’ll give you for predictions:

8. Martinez 4:26.94
7. Bucher 4:26.11
6. Curley 4:24.84
5. Knoebel 4:22.37
4. Pollock 4:21.95
3. Baublitz 4:17.03
2. Cullen 4:16.80
1. Forsythe 4:14.65

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