AA 3200m
The Stage
With Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich graduating, the
top returner for this year’s state championship is also the #1 seed – Ben Miller
of Upper Dauphin. The senior, who placed 3rd a year ago, owns the
top seed with a time of 9:21.05. That’s 11 seconds better than the field. He’s
also got the fastest PR and 3k best (he ran an 8:34 at the Penn Relays) and a
15:40 5k PR from this past fall. It feels like Miller’s championship to lose.
That being said, there are is a long list of title
hopefuls trying to take it from. Heading the list is Andrew Stanley of Southern
Huntingdon. The senior won the 3200 at the District 6 championships (against
strong competition) and was also likely a key contributor on Southern
Huntingdon’s district champion 4x8 plus he added an SQS in the 16. Last year, Stanley
made a name for himself by posting a 9:29 and finishing in 4th place
overall at states, less than a second behind Miller.
Also in contention will be a group of sophomores who are
running well above their age. Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing, Andrew Healey of Holy
Cross and Ben Hoffman of Elk County Catholic all look like dangerous sleeper
candidates in this event. 10th graders Tanner Walter (Milton),
Krystof Lapotsky (Mt Carmel), Scott Routledge (Winchester Thurston) and Adam
Hessler (Freedom) are also among the top 12 overall seeds entering Saturday’s
final.
The Race
As mentioned at the top, I think Miller has a great
chance to win this. He looked incredible at the District 3 championships,
running a new best of 9:21. Plus, his 3k best from the Penn Relays converts to
about 9:12. Those times are in another ball park from what we’ve seen out of
this group to date. We know Miller has great strength and won’t be afraid to
push the pace and put the pressure on his opponents. He has the tools needed to
win his first state gold.
That being said, any time you have a big favorite out
there to be shot at, you can expect there to be challengers. Andrew Stanley was
very aggressive in his racing strategy at this meet last year and won’t be
afraid of Miller. Although I think Brendan has made big strides since his final
race last spring, Stanley finished right alongside him at the state
championships so it’s not crazy to think he can keep it close again. Plus,
Stanley has shown some serious speed in recent weeks, most notably his golds at
the D6 championships.
However, I think the biggest challenger to Miller is
going to be Josh Lewis of North East. Lewis has already run in the 9:20s this
year, holding his own in a stacked field at Baldwin. Plus he has low 4:20s
speed on the track. The junior actually reminds me a bit of Miller a year ago.
Like Miller, Lewis had a breakout XC season during his 11th grade
year and won a district title against a strong field. However, at the state
championships, Miller faltered and finished outside the medals. That didn’t get
Brendan down and he ended up getting that coveted state medal in the spring with
a third place finish. Lewis is on a similar path, but has arguably been more
impressive than even Brendan was last year to this point. He still needs to
prove he can handle the pressure that comes with states, but if he brings his
best stuff to Shippensburg he might leave with gold.
One guy that I’ve barely touched on to date is Quinn
Serfass of Loyalsock. The senior has been incredibly consistent this year, but
has had the misfortunate of finding himself lost in the shuffle on more than
one occasion. He’s raced excellent competition like Jersey Shore’s Isaac Davis
and Brendan Miller as well as top mile guys like Leeser and Knoebel plus he’s
delivered 4x8 relay legs for a state qualifying squad. He’s got great range and
has always performed up to his capabilities in championship races, including strong
showings during last fall’s AA state championships and 2017’s 3200 state meet
(6th and #3 returner).
It’s very rare for a sophomore to win a state
championship, especially in the 3200. Since 2000, there’s only been one soph to
pull it off – Dominic Hockenbury back in 2014 (I think that was back when I
used to call him Huckleberry by accident). I think Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing and Andrew
Healey of Holy Cross both have the potential to make this race interesting, but
I’m not sure either will emerge victorious. Kuhn has been phenomenal on the
track this year and would have been a factor in the 1600 finals had he picked
that event (4:21 best). I think Kuhn is the best pure miler in this field which
could give him an advantage in a sprint finish. Meanwhile, Healey is fresh off
a 4:24 PR at his district championship. He hasn’t put together a super flashy
3200, but he also hasn’t had the push he will get at states. Healey was 9th
last year as a freshman. Fun fact, that’s better than Huckleberry (AKA
Hockenbury) placed at states his freshman season (11th).
I’ve got a long list of sleepers, probably too long to
completely list here but I’ll throw out some names. Watch the Penns Valley freshman
Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell, both were XC medalists. If they add medals in
this event, it will be one of the best all-around freshman campaigns in small
school history. Sands has been the faster of the pair thus far, but is slated
for a busy weekend of racing with the 1600 prelims and the 4x8 prelims on his
plate before this one. Jack Miller from Jenkintown was an absolute monster
during cross who crushed the 16 minute barrier at Paul Short and nearly knocked
off Brendan Miller at states in A. He’s had some solid success on the track,
but not to quite the same degree he did on the trails. Once it clicks for him
on the track, I think a time in the 9:30s or faster is coming.
This almost goes without saying, but the top seeds like
Horst, Driben, Sullivan, Gould, Walter and Lapotsky are all solid medal picks.
Only Driben competed here last year in this event so the others will be
rookies. It took 9:41 to medal in 2017 which means a PR performance from any of
these guys puts them right in the mix for a top spot.
Here’s my prediction for exactly how those top spots
unfold:
8. Jack Miller 9:37.91
7. Ben Hoffman 9:36.75
6. Andrew Stanley 9:29.03
5. Quinn Serfass 9:27.40
4. Ben Kuhn 9:27.06
3. Josh Lewis 9:26.48
2. Andrew Healey 9:25.57
1. Brendan Miller 9:19.75
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