2018 State Previews: AA 3200m


AA 3200m
The Stage
With Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich graduating, the top returner for this year’s state championship is also the #1 seed – Ben Miller of Upper Dauphin. The senior, who placed 3rd a year ago, owns the top seed with a time of 9:21.05. That’s 11 seconds better than the field. He’s also got the fastest PR and 3k best (he ran an 8:34 at the Penn Relays) and a 15:40 5k PR from this past fall. It feels like Miller’s championship to lose.

That being said, there are is a long list of title hopefuls trying to take it from. Heading the list is Andrew Stanley of Southern Huntingdon. The senior won the 3200 at the District 6 championships (against strong competition) and was also likely a key contributor on Southern Huntingdon’s district champion 4x8 plus he added an SQS in the 16. Last year, Stanley made a name for himself by posting a 9:29 and finishing in 4th place overall at states, less than a second behind Miller.

Also in contention will be a group of sophomores who are running well above their age. Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing, Andrew Healey of Holy Cross and Ben Hoffman of Elk County Catholic all look like dangerous sleeper candidates in this event. 10th graders Tanner Walter (Milton), Krystof Lapotsky (Mt Carmel), Scott Routledge (Winchester Thurston) and Adam Hessler (Freedom) are also among the top 12 overall seeds entering Saturday’s final.

The Race
As mentioned at the top, I think Miller has a great chance to win this. He looked incredible at the District 3 championships, running a new best of 9:21. Plus, his 3k best from the Penn Relays converts to about 9:12. Those times are in another ball park from what we’ve seen out of this group to date. We know Miller has great strength and won’t be afraid to push the pace and put the pressure on his opponents. He has the tools needed to win his first state gold.

That being said, any time you have a big favorite out there to be shot at, you can expect there to be challengers. Andrew Stanley was very aggressive in his racing strategy at this meet last year and won’t be afraid of Miller. Although I think Brendan has made big strides since his final race last spring, Stanley finished right alongside him at the state championships so it’s not crazy to think he can keep it close again. Plus, Stanley has shown some serious speed in recent weeks, most notably his golds at the D6 championships.

However, I think the biggest challenger to Miller is going to be Josh Lewis of North East. Lewis has already run in the 9:20s this year, holding his own in a stacked field at Baldwin. Plus he has low 4:20s speed on the track. The junior actually reminds me a bit of Miller a year ago. Like Miller, Lewis had a breakout XC season during his 11th grade year and won a district title against a strong field. However, at the state championships, Miller faltered and finished outside the medals. That didn’t get Brendan down and he ended up getting that coveted state medal in the spring with a third place finish. Lewis is on a similar path, but has arguably been more impressive than even Brendan was last year to this point. He still needs to prove he can handle the pressure that comes with states, but if he brings his best stuff to Shippensburg he might leave with gold.

One guy that I’ve barely touched on to date is Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock. The senior has been incredibly consistent this year, but has had the misfortunate of finding himself lost in the shuffle on more than one occasion. He’s raced excellent competition like Jersey Shore’s Isaac Davis and Brendan Miller as well as top mile guys like Leeser and Knoebel plus he’s delivered 4x8 relay legs for a state qualifying squad. He’s got great range and has always performed up to his capabilities in championship races, including strong showings during last fall’s AA state championships and 2017’s 3200 state meet (6th and #3 returner).

It’s very rare for a sophomore to win a state championship, especially in the 3200. Since 2000, there’s only been one soph to pull it off – Dominic Hockenbury back in 2014 (I think that was back when I used to call him Huckleberry by accident). I think Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing and Andrew Healey of Holy Cross both have the potential to make this race interesting, but I’m not sure either will emerge victorious. Kuhn has been phenomenal on the track this year and would have been a factor in the 1600 finals had he picked that event (4:21 best). I think Kuhn is the best pure miler in this field which could give him an advantage in a sprint finish. Meanwhile, Healey is fresh off a 4:24 PR at his district championship. He hasn’t put together a super flashy 3200, but he also hasn’t had the push he will get at states. Healey was 9th last year as a freshman. Fun fact, that’s better than Huckleberry (AKA Hockenbury) placed at states his freshman season (11th).

I’ve got a long list of sleepers, probably too long to completely list here but I’ll throw out some names. Watch the Penns Valley freshman Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell, both were XC medalists. If they add medals in this event, it will be one of the best all-around freshman campaigns in small school history. Sands has been the faster of the pair thus far, but is slated for a busy weekend of racing with the 1600 prelims and the 4x8 prelims on his plate before this one. Jack Miller from Jenkintown was an absolute monster during cross who crushed the 16 minute barrier at Paul Short and nearly knocked off Brendan Miller at states in A. He’s had some solid success on the track, but not to quite the same degree he did on the trails. Once it clicks for him on the track, I think a time in the 9:30s or faster is coming.

This almost goes without saying, but the top seeds like Horst, Driben, Sullivan, Gould, Walter and Lapotsky are all solid medal picks. Only Driben competed here last year in this event so the others will be rookies. It took 9:41 to medal in 2017 which means a PR performance from any of these guys puts them right in the mix for a top spot.

Here’s my prediction for exactly how those top spots unfold:

8. Jack Miller 9:37.91
7. Ben Hoffman 9:36.75
6. Andrew Stanley 9:29.03
5. Quinn Serfass 9:27.40
4. Ben Kuhn 9:27.06
3. Josh Lewis 9:26.48
2. Andrew Healey 9:25.57
1. Brendan Miller 9:19.75

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