2018 State Previews: AA 4x800m


AA 4x800m
The Stage
After two years of state championships for District 10’s Seneca, the AA division will see a new champion in the state’s longest relay. The 2018 season has seen a few teams already dip under the 8 minute mark (a barrier only Seneca descended at last year’s meet) including the top two qualifiers from District 3 – Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. Wyomissing, this past fall’s XC state champs, have been runner-up in this event each of the past two years and project to be in contention for at least this silver this time around. However, Wyomissing has individual qualifiers in the 3200 and 1600 and a deep rotation of relay pieces to pull from which complicates the picture. They will need to be on top of their game as Schuylkill Valley has already defeated them head to head this year for the state’s fastest time.

Although District 3 has two of the fastest teams, District 4 proved to be the deepest this past week. On Thursday night a whopping 8 relays cracked the SQS and punched their ticket for states. Fastest on that night was Mifflinburg, a team that been dominant in 2018. They ran 7:58 at districts and enter with the top seed as a result. It looks as though they return their entire core from last year’s medal winning relay. Behind Mifflinburg, District 4 holds the next 4 best seed times and 8 of the top 11 overall. Despite this, it seems unlikely that the district will qualify 8 teams for the state finals (it’s pretty unprecedented) so all of these schools will need to bring that same intensity to Shippensburg.

The Prelims
In the distance races, the top 12 marks will advance to the finals. Out of two prelims, that equates to the fastest 4 in each heat (regardless of time) and then the next best four times. As of the writing of this post, I haven’t seen the heat sheets yet, but they typically just snake the entries so I can guess what they will look like (in theory).

My picks for the final would be Mifflinburg, Danville, Mt Carmel, Warrior Run, Wyomissing, Schuylkill Valley, Riverside, Elk County Catholic, Holy Redeemer, Reynolds, Purchase Line, and Notre Dame GP. Notre Dame and Purchase Line are my two biggest bubble teams as they will need to crank it up from their seed times, but I like Purchase Line’s recent state experience and am a loyal supporter of Notre Dame, who I think can get some revenge on Tamaqua this weekend.

The toughest omissions from the final include the aforementioned Tamaqua (two guys with sub 2 potential, D11 champs), Central Columbia (monster race at District 4, excellent 400 speed on this roster), Milton (Tyler Leeser and Guinn-Bailey are a combined 6 seconds under 2 on the right day, but will they have the depth?) and Smethport (Christian Tanner is quietly emerging as a star in the middle distances). I also feel odd about having just one WPIAL squad in my finals so we will see if someone like Deer Lakes can have a big day and sneak into the top 12.

The Finals
From these 12 finalists, only 8 will make it to the medal stand and only one set of four will get to wear gold. In my opinion, this is a three horse race between Mifflinburg, Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. SV has the fastest time coming in and has a pretty balanced attack with good quarter speed. They have experience matching up with Wyomissing and the confidence to push them to the line. Ben Reisenweaver is their likely anchor (individual 800 state qualifier) and will have the pressure to bring home the race against two potentially game changing anchors. Tyler Bailey and Joe Cullen have both run 1:54 already this spring. If either gets it within striking distance of the leader, they can hawk down the gold.

That’s why I think this race is ultimately going to come down to these two teams. If the talent is comparable, I naturally drift to which anchor I think is most likely to bring it home. Looking back on his career, Cullen would be the logical pick to come out on top. He’s anchor a pair of silver medal squads and, as a freshman, was a part of a gold medal winning team. That being said, I’m going to play an instinct and pick Mifflinburg for the victory.

Although I don’t have any other squads quite on this team’s level, I do think there are a lot of high upside squads in this field. Elk County Catholic has the chance to do real damage. They are sub 8:10 team with room for more. The problem is Ben Hoffman is slated to run the 3200 final prior to the 4x8. That double is brutal and could cost them a few seconds. Holy Redeemer is another team that catches my eye. They had a fantastic series of runs in Shippensburg last year and come out of the often underrated District 2. By weekend’s end, I think they could be knocking on the door of sub 8. I’m also keeping an eye out for a bounce back race from Warrior Run. On the right day, they can be the second best team in the District (which, based on seed times, would make them #2 in the state as well) and a quick scan of the performance list makes it look like these guys will be fresher than many of their opponents.

The real wildcard to me is Riverside out of District 7. They absolutely dominated that meet and have been the clear #1 out West all year. What happens when they finally get the competition that fits with their talents? 8:05 seems almost like a conservative estimate given their excellence to date, but I also can’t tell you much about any of the guys who make up the relay (I think they have a very quick 400 guy moving up). The District 4 teams will be legit. Danville and Mount Carmel are two powers who showed up under the bright lights at districts. Both have experience on this stage and Mount Carmel is coming off a monster XC season. The thing to watch with them will be how Krystof Lapotsky figures into their finals relay (he’s slated for the 3200 prior to gun time in the 4x8).

Ultimately, here’s my final picks:

8. Mount Caramel 8:05.81
7. Riverside 8:04.33
6. Warrior Run 8:02.79
5. Holy Redeemer 8:01.20
4. Danville 8:00.96
3. Schuylkill Valley 7:56.25
2. Wyomissing 7:55.89
1. Mifflinburg 7:55.02

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