AA 4x800m
The Stage
After two years of state championships for District 10’s
Seneca, the AA division will see a new champion in the state’s longest relay.
The 2018 season has seen a few teams already dip under the 8 minute mark (a
barrier only Seneca descended at last year’s meet) including the top two
qualifiers from District 3 – Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. Wyomissing, this
past fall’s XC state champs, have been runner-up in this event each of the past
two years and project to be in contention for at least this silver this time
around. However, Wyomissing has individual qualifiers in the 3200 and 1600 and
a deep rotation of relay pieces to pull from which complicates the picture.
They will need to be on top of their game as Schuylkill Valley has already
defeated them head to head this year for the state’s fastest time.
Although District 3 has two of the fastest teams,
District 4 proved to be the deepest this past week. On Thursday night a
whopping 8 relays cracked the SQS and punched their ticket for states. Fastest
on that night was Mifflinburg, a team that been dominant in 2018. They ran 7:58
at districts and enter with the top seed as a result. It looks as though they
return their entire core from last year’s medal winning relay. Behind
Mifflinburg, District 4 holds the next 4 best seed times and 8 of the top 11
overall. Despite this, it seems unlikely that the district will qualify 8 teams
for the state finals (it’s pretty unprecedented) so all of these schools will
need to bring that same intensity to Shippensburg.
The Prelims
In the distance races, the top 12 marks will advance to
the finals. Out of two prelims, that equates to the fastest 4 in each heat
(regardless of time) and then the next best four times. As of the writing of
this post, I haven’t seen the heat sheets yet, but they typically just snake
the entries so I can guess what they will look like (in theory).
My picks for the final would be Mifflinburg, Danville, Mt
Carmel, Warrior Run, Wyomissing, Schuylkill Valley, Riverside, Elk County
Catholic, Holy Redeemer, Reynolds, Purchase Line, and Notre Dame GP. Notre Dame
and Purchase Line are my two biggest bubble teams as they will need to crank it
up from their seed times, but I like Purchase Line’s recent state experience
and am a loyal supporter of Notre Dame, who I think can get some revenge on
Tamaqua this weekend.
The toughest omissions from the final include the
aforementioned Tamaqua (two guys with sub 2 potential, D11 champs), Central
Columbia (monster race at District 4, excellent 400 speed on this roster),
Milton (Tyler Leeser and Guinn-Bailey are a combined 6 seconds under 2 on the
right day, but will they have the depth?) and Smethport (Christian Tanner is
quietly emerging as a star in the middle distances). I also feel odd about
having just one WPIAL squad in my finals so we will see if someone like Deer
Lakes can have a big day and sneak into the top 12.
The Finals
From these 12 finalists, only 8 will make it to the medal
stand and only one set of four will get to wear gold. In my opinion, this is a
three horse race between Mifflinburg, Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. SV has
the fastest time coming in and has a pretty balanced attack with good quarter
speed. They have experience matching up with Wyomissing and the confidence to
push them to the line. Ben Reisenweaver is their likely anchor (individual 800
state qualifier) and will have the pressure to bring home the race against two
potentially game changing anchors. Tyler Bailey and Joe Cullen have both run
1:54 already this spring. If either gets it within striking distance of the
leader, they can hawk down the gold.
That’s why I think this race is ultimately going to come
down to these two teams. If the talent is comparable, I naturally drift to
which anchor I think is most likely to bring it home. Looking back on his
career, Cullen would be the logical pick to come out on top. He’s anchor a pair
of silver medal squads and, as a freshman, was a part of a gold medal winning
team. That being said, I’m going to play an instinct and pick Mifflinburg for
the victory.
Although I don’t have any other squads quite on this
team’s level, I do think there are a lot of high upside squads in this field.
Elk County Catholic has the chance to do real damage. They are sub 8:10 team
with room for more. The problem is Ben Hoffman is slated to run the 3200 final
prior to the 4x8. That double is brutal and could cost them a few seconds. Holy
Redeemer is another team that catches my eye. They had a fantastic series of
runs in Shippensburg last year and come out of the often underrated District 2.
By weekend’s end, I think they could be knocking on the door of sub 8. I’m also
keeping an eye out for a bounce back race from Warrior Run. On the right day,
they can be the second best team in the District (which, based on seed times,
would make them #2 in the state as well) and a quick scan of the performance
list makes it look like these guys will be fresher than many of their
opponents.
The real wildcard to me is Riverside out of District 7.
They absolutely dominated that meet and have been the clear #1 out West all
year. What happens when they finally get the competition that fits with their
talents? 8:05 seems almost like a conservative estimate given their excellence
to date, but I also can’t tell you much about any of the guys who make up the
relay (I think they have a very quick 400 guy moving up). The District 4 teams
will be legit. Danville and Mount Carmel are two powers who showed up under the
bright lights at districts. Both have experience on this stage and Mount Carmel
is coming off a monster XC season. The thing to watch with them will be how
Krystof Lapotsky figures into their finals relay (he’s slated for the 3200
prior to gun time in the 4x8).
Ultimately, here’s my final picks:
8. Mount Caramel 8:05.81
7. Riverside 8:04.33
6. Warrior Run 8:02.79
5. Holy Redeemer 8:01.20
4. Danville 8:00.96
3. Schuylkill Valley 7:56.25
2. Wyomissing 7:55.89
1. Mifflinburg 7:55.02
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