Ches-Mont Preview

by Jarrett Felix

Teams
A year ago, Downingtown West edged out West Chester Henderson in something of a passing of the torch moment at this championships. West finished with 45 points and Henderson had 47. That result came a year after Henderson won their second straight state title and a year before DT West would assert itself as state title favorites in 2015. Those favorites, DT West, will be just two days removed from a victory at the Manhattan Invitational in the prestigious Eastern States race over some top flight teams. Does that leave them vulnerable for a possible upset against their rivals from WCH?

DT West has had Henderson's number so far this year. They look care of them with relative ease at their dual meet and then beat them by 100+ points at the Carlisle Invitational. West has been able to use their incredibly strong top 3 to do a lot of damage this year, placing 3 ahead of returning state medalist Spencer Smucker (Henderson's top dog this season) at Carlisle. But they have also displayed the most depth in the league, placing 7 in front of Henderson's #3 at their most recent meeting in Carlisle.

But will see West at full strength? How important is this victory to the team? It's hard to say for sure. In the big picture, a district and state title (as well as a national birth) are significantly more important. That's why these boys went to VCP in the first place. However, teams in this league take great pride in winning the Ches-Mont title and I would think the Whippets aren't eager to give the trophy back to their rivals at Henderson.

In anticipation of this moment, DT West ran only their top 7 runners in NY, meaning guys like Patrick Blair, Drew Alansky, and the Codd brothers will all be available at full strength. These guys ran 16:50, 16:57, 17:08 and 17:11 at Carlisle (Blair in the varsity race, the others in JV). That's a pack of four that would be comparable to many of the top teams packs and could potentially compete with Henderson's 3-7. That means that if West can get a modest effort from the Hoeys and Sappey (ahead of Reuther, Henderson's #2) they can sneak the title. That doesn't even count potential strong performances from O'Neill, Bullock and Ryherd.

Of course basically everyone on DT West's squad has rested at some point or another. The Hoeys, O'Neill and Bullock all come to mind as guys who have been MIA at some point this year so maybe it's Sappey's turn for a break this Monday.

Ultimately, I don't know the plan, and I've already likely wasted too much time speculating. Two days is enough time to recover and put in a tempo effort without it being a huge problem. Then, as has been mentioned, they have plenty of time to rest until districts/states. I think DT West will beat Henderson and earn the title, but Henderson may end up making them work for it. These are my clear top two.

After that, we should see an interesting battle between WC East and Bishop Shanahan. East took a dominate win in a dual meet earlier this year, but Shanahan has gained momentum in hurry after their White Race victory at Paul Short. BS and WC East have both been carried by strong packs, Shanahan's pack perhaps in better form as of late after putting 4 men under 17 at Lehigh. However, East has a potentially game changing front runner in Rob Moser. Moser has struggled a bit with health in recent weeks, but if he is at full strength, he has shown the potential to finish significantly higher than anyone in a Shanahan uniform. That combined with the fact that Shanahan has been led by a freshman this year (admittedly a very talented one in Jack Ettien) could open the door for a win from East (well a 3rd place finish from East).

A couple X-factors in this match up will be Hoyos, Easts #2 who could really help the cause by finishing ahead of the entire Shanahan pack and Spencer Breslin, the individual state qualifier for Shanahan who was the team's 3 at Paul Short. He seems to be a name on the rise who could have a breakthrough here on the big stage.

Other potential party crashers in this meet could be the always dangerous late season squad from Great Valley and Jake Ilgenfritz's Avon Grove team. Don't sleep on Rustin (3rd place a year ago) that has two very dangerous front runners and the tight knit pack from DT East, who would really benefit from a huge run out of one of their front runners.

Individuals
The defending champion, Henry Sappey, and his two teammates, Jaxson and Josh Hoey, appear to be the three best runners in the league on paper. But as mentioned, who knows what these guys will do. I think West has 8ish Top 15 guys on the roster, but without knowing the line-up, I'll leave them out of the discussion for now.

The real wildcard here is Kent Hall. The breakout star from Unionville has hung tough in his early season battles and even bested Spencer Smucker at a hilly Oberod course. However, we will find out just how good this guy really is at this meet. Hall was solid, but not jaw dropping, on the track last spring and didn't compete for Unionville last fall so it's hard to know just how good this guy is with such a small sample size of elite running. But his elite running has been quite elite. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the title tomorrow, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him outside the top 5. I'm more inclined to lean towards the former.

Avon Grove's Jake Ilgenfritz is coming off back to back phenomenal performances. He placed well up the field at Carlisle, beating plenty of big names and then came within a few seconds of breaking 16 minutes under difficult conditions at Hershey. He's having a fantastic season and really impressed me a year ago when he took 12th at this meet. All signs indicate he is quite far ahead of where he was this time last year which means he could be sitting on a top 5 run this Monday, especially if the DT West armada is holding anything back.

Last year's 5th place finisher at this meet was Jack Carmody, who started his big breakout stretch from 2014 at Ches-Monts. Carmody is a huge talent, especially on the hillier courses, but he struggled a bit at Paul Short last weekend. The good news: he struggled at Paul Short last year as well and that had little to no effect on his performance at leagues. If anything it was a nice bit of extra motivation. Look for his teammate Brandon Hontz to have a big day as well. He finished in the top 35 at Paul Short, running 16:24. Also, Hontz was a strong 22nd at this league meet last year.

The most interesting individuals this weekend, for me personally, will be those wearing the Henderson H. Spencer Smucker finished 7th at this meet last year as a freshman, a performance that nearly turned the tables on DT West. He followed that with a top 20 finish at districts and a 24th place finish at states. This guy gets better every week and he ran significantly better at Carlisle than he did in 2014. You can make a very strong argument for a Smucker victory, regardless of what the Whippets choose to do this weekend.

Smucker is also joined by Carson Reuther, who has quietly emerged as a strong #2 runner in the league. Reuther could possibly catch lightening in a bottle the same way Will Swart did last year when Swart took 4th at this meet and grabbed a top 50 spot at states. Reuther is crucial to any title hopes Henderson has and if he develops into a Top 30 guy in the state, Henderson becomes a much more dangerous team. I'm also extremely curious to see who steps in at the #3 spot for Henderson. It would be surprising to see less than 3 Henderson runners in the top 12 at this meet, however, it's very possible considering the individual talent available.

Another name to remember: Andrew Maxwell from Kennett. As a sophomore, Maxwell was 11th at this meet and with the potential for a big Junior jump, the top 5 finisher in the Champions section at Carlisle could be poised to make noise in this loaded field. I think momentum is on his side and I could really see him cracking the top 5-7 runners in this group if things break right.

I'm convinced the West boys will be holding back so here are my picks:
1. Smucker
2. Hall
3. Ilgenfritz
4. Jax Hoey
5. Jo Hoey
6. Sappey
7. Carmody
8. Reuther
9. Maxwell
10. Barton

1. DT West
2. Henderson
3. BS
4. WC East