District Week: District One Preview

By Jarrett Felix

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)
At Foundation, it looked like New Hope was poised to easily repeat as District One A Champions in 2015 and perhaps become contenders at states. However, with Chris Cammarata out of the line up the past two weeks and a Jenkintown team hot off its best stretch of running this season, that favorite status has been called into question. Jenkintown’s Christian Geer took the jump into district title contention at leagues, defeating Michael Gunden of Christopher Dock and Jamaal Aw-Yoonis of Church Farm School. Joshua Jackson was one of the top runners in the district last year as a freshman and seems to be on track to finish near the top again this season. Behind him are two talented froshes who can learn from his success: Jack Miller and Patrick Wagner. This is definitely a young team that could be vulnerable on the big stage, but they are extremely talented.

If Chris Cammarata comes back and joins his brother Eric, New Hope’s 1-2 punch transforms back into a team that can rival Jenkintown. However, it’s unclear if that will happen which means New Hope will have to rely more heavily on it’s pack. The good news is, that pack is quite good with Joshua House, Bradley Neumann and Sam Lombardi having strong seasons thus far and Anthony Lagana looking like he is ready to step up as well. If they can squeeze enough runners in front of Jenkintown’s #5 and keep it close out front (both of which may take some help from the other schools in the district) than New Hope can still reign as D1 A powers.

Individually, this is setting up to an awesome battle between Michael Gunden, Jamaal Aw-Yoonis and Christian Geer. These three have each had their fair share of moments this season but Gunden’s run at Paul Short (the course that will house districts) plus his performance at last year’s meet slots him just ahead of the other two in my eyes. Michael Logie from Delware Christian is another name to remember, although I haven’t seen his name in many results, he’s a big talent. Tim Kennel from Christopher Dock has shown excellent potential as well, running slightly obscured by his teammate Gunden. He will hope to follow Mike to the state meet individually as the CD team is a long shot to qualify.

1. Jenkintown
2. New Hope
3. Christopher Dock

1
Michael
Gunden
Christopher Dock
Sr
2
Jamaal
Aw-Yoonis
Church Farm
Sr
3
Christian
Geer
Jenkintown
Sr
4
Tim
Kennel
Christopher Dock
So
5
Joshua
Jackson
Jenkintown
So
6
Eric
Cammarata
New Hope
Jr
7
Michael
Logie
Delaware CC
Sr
8
Jack
Miller
Jenkintown
Fr
9
Chris
Cammarata
New Hope
So
10
Joshua
House
New Hope
Jr
11
Patrick
Wagner
Jenkintown
Fr
12
Bradley
Neumann
New Hope
Sr
13
Isaiah
Denlinger
Christopher Dock
So
14
Sam
Lombardi
New Hope
Jr
15
Anthony
Lagana
New Hope
Jr

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)
Pottsgrove has won the AA team title every year since we split to three classifications and, quite frankly, they’ve done it in impressive fashion. Last year, despite buzz around Shanahan and HG Prep, they rolled through the competition and in 2013 and 2012 they ended up grabbing medals at the state meet, finishing 2nd and 1st respectively. This year’s squad started out fast again, placing 4th as a team at a loaded foundation meet ahead of Knoch and just behind Grove City. So there’s reason to believe whoever wins the District One Championship will be a contender for a top five placing at the state championship.

The key word there is “whoever”. Pottsgrove has faltered a bit in there last two big meet performances, opening the door for a potential 1st time victor in HG Prep or Bishop Shanahan. Although I’m never completely ready to count out Pottsgrove (they return a good chunk of last year’s district champ squad), to me it seems this will be a two way battle between Holy Ghost and the Bishop.

I’ve had a hard time getting a read for this match up. HG Prep and Shanahan both have crossed paths with WC East a variety of times and there was fairly mixed results. At Paul Short, both teams looked very strong, however both teams also competed in different races meaning we were robbed of a potential mid-season head to head match up. Recently, HGP ran at Bicentennial Leagues, but dominated against a field mainly made up of A competition. Shanahan hasn’t raced an XC invite since Chesmonts a few weeks back, but they did crush a 3200m on the track, putting 4 guys right at 10 minutes. And their 5th was Jack Ettien, the freshman who has led this team at every major invitational this fall.

It tentatively looks like HG Prep will take 1-2 in this match-up, especially if Patrick Donahue can recapture the form he showcased at the George School Invitational. Then Shanahan’s pack of four that ran under 17 minutes in the Paul Short White Race, Chris Kolimago, Jack and Blake Ettien and Spencer Breslin, will have to file in close behind, ahead of HGP’s pack and hopefully not split by Pottsgrove’s top runners Neeson and Wurtz. Then it comes down to how big of a day someone like Logan Yoquinto may have for BS in the 5 spot. He’s shown strong potential, running well in a dual meet against Henderson and clocking a quick 3200m last week, but this will be a bigger, longer stage for the sophomore who has excelled as a 400/800 man in the past. That being said, I still think this BS pack is over better than HG Preps and, ultimately, I think this race is close but leans towards Shanahan.

Individually, Holy Ghost has the big upper hand in the individual title race. Callahan Lennon and Patrick Donahue have looked the best of any runner in the district this year and Lennon is one of the top returners from last season, peaking well for this meet. The other top returner is Pottsgrove’s Brendan Wurtz, who struggled at Pac 10s, but ran quite well at Hershey and Paul Short on back to back weekends. Pottsgrove’s best shot at the title, however, will likely be Michael Neeson who is having a fantastic year and has led the team at their major meets this year, ahead of Wurtz.

Bishop Shanahan will hope their pack is also in contention at the front of the race as Chris Kolimago could be a sleeper here. He’s a proven, strong speed runner and this course should complement his skill set. And if Chris can contend, so too can Jack Ettien who has been the team’s leader on the trails this fall. He’s just a freshman so there is potential for him to fold under the bright lights, but he’s given no indication that will be the case this season. He ran a conservative style at Paul Short, picking off a lot of runners after the mile, so I will be curious how he contends late in this race, especially if the top runners burn themselves out in the early going chasing a fast time.

1. Bishop Shanahan
2. HG Prep
3. Pottsgrove

1
Callahan
Lennon
HG Prep
Jr
2
Patrick
Donahue
HG Prep
Sr
3
Michael
Neeson
Pottsgrove
Jr
4
Chris
Kolimago
Bishop Shanahan
Sr
5
Jack
Ettien
Bishop Shanahan
Fr
6
Seamus
Breslin
Bishop Shanahan
Sr
7
Brendan
Wurtz
Pottsgrove
Sr
8
Blake
Ettien
Bishop Shanahan
Sr
9
Kevin
Sheppard
HG Prep
Sr
10
Logan
Yoquinto
Bishop Shanahan
So
11
Sean
Dixon
HG Prep
Jr
12
Landon
Detweiler
Upper Perkiomen
Jr
13
Antonio
Decena
John Paul II
Sr
14
Kevin
Dineen
HG Prep
Jr
15
Justin
Beasley-Turner
Pottstown
Sr
16
Aaron
Morris
Springfield
17
Liam
Flood
HG Prep
Jr
18
Joseph
Drager
Pottsgrove
Sr

AAA (5 Teams, 25 Individuals)
Ah yes, here we are. The race that I’ve pondering so often, I can speak about it for nearly an hour. Seriously, you can listen to the podcast right here on our site as proof. For those who listened, I’ll try not to be too repetitive with what I said on the podcast. For those who did not, I’ll still try to hit the main points here for you to enjoy.

The biggest takeaway that you can  claim for this one is: I think this race is (weather permitting) going to be very, very fast. The race will undoubtedly get out hard with Brophy and the Hoeys (one or both of which could maybe be held out, but I doubt it) not afraid to get after it and chase a fast time. Brophy wants sub 15 and the last time we saw a sub 15 at Districts (Tony Russell in 2013) we saw 32 runners crack 16 minutes. The time before that (2006), we saw 36 runners crack 16 minutes with another three at 16 flat. The performances I saw at leagues indicate to me there is enough talent to pull our state qualifying cut offs down towards 16 flat again and certainly under 16:10. To give you an idea, I currently have Matt Allen and Jared Bixler of Hatboro Horsham among my “guys on the bubble” picks and they both ran under 16:20 at this course last week. And it’s not uncommon (in fact it’s frequent) for guys to drop an extra 10+ seconds from leagues to districts depending on how the competition level changes and if they have a good day.  Jeff Montgomery, a sleeper pick in this one that I currently have slotted at 50th, I believe was under 16:20 in sloppy conditions at Paul Short about a month ago. Like I said, there’s a lot of talent.

So let’s talk individuals. There are a ton of guys that I could talk about here considering how much talent we have available and I already hit a lot of names on the podcast. You can see my full list of projected qualifiers below and I extended the list out to a top 50 predicted just for fun. Brophy is entering Jimmy Springer territory (running diaries reference) as he approaches the state meet with the potential to lower his already crazy 15:24 Hershey record. A guy of his talent who wants sub 15 as badly as he does will be hard pressed not to get it. He, Jaxson and Josh should all be able to run together and push each other towards a fast mark. I think it will be close for a while, but Brophy will be able to drop the hammer coming down the last down-hill and take the victory. I’m very interested to see what Jaxson and Josh do on this course and who wins out of the pair considering their Manhattan run.

The second tier, in my eyes, is probably Kirshenbaum, Sappey, Hall, Fortna and Smucker with potential for guys like McMenamin, McGinnis, Marcelis, Kujdych, Shah and maybe even whoever ends up the top Central League guy (Abrahams, D’Aquila, JGS). I personally think Kirshenbaum and Hall are having crazy good seasons and I think both could potentially be top 10 guys at states. However, I do think both guys might be more built for Hershey than Lehigh (although that shouldn’t stop the pair from running fast) so they could get jumped by a few guys. Sappey, too, feels like a guy who could do more damage on the hills, but he also just dropped a 4:24 mile and has been training with 3 sub 4:20 milers. He is also the top returner from this tier from Districts last year. Smucker is another one, I’m not sure which course favors him best, but the numbers say Hershey (admittedly a small sample size). Of course I’m not sure the last time Henderson didn’t have a top 10 finisher at this meet so I’d be stunned if Spence is on the outside looking in.

That leaves Rock Fortna as a potential breakthrough performer. He beat Ryan James and Rob Morro at Briarwood this year and also added a 15:32 somewhat solo at Leagues. Considering he has split 4:16/1:54, this guy might be on the verge of a 15 teens type performance (again, weather permitting) at districts which would be huge. Yet last year he was jumped by guys like Connor McMenamin so nothing is set in stone.

Lukas Marcelis is high on my “this guy needs more love” list this season. He cruised to a 16:08. Cruised to it. We have yet to see this kid’s true potential. And I’m saying this about a Wissahickon kid so you know I must believe it. Kujdych also really has turned it on in recent weeks. He was running like a mid-pack top 25ish type runner in the district for much of the early season but his last two races have completely changed my mind. The extra competition at districts should benefit him and maybe pull him far enough away from Shah so that he won’t get outkicked this time around.

There’s some names I’m skipping, but let me give a few guys some chatter than I’m curious about. Andrew Maxwell from Kennett had a fantastic race here last year and was one of the top sophomores in the meet, beating guys like Ryan Barton and Liam Galligan who ended up topping him at states (and therefore stealing a lot of the spotlight). Maxwell had a strong race at Chesmonts and has consistently improved all season. He could be a sleeper in this race. Jake Ilgenfritz is another Chesmont runner who has had a killer season. His finishes at Carlisle and Paul Short were fantastic and he was in the mix with some very elite names. I’m optimistic about his chances to impress. And how about Matt Scarpill from CB South? He was a super talented freshman who hasn’t really been healthy for a full XC season. He’s starting to showcase his potential now, breaking 16 minutes at suburbans. Lastly, great running this year from Rustin’s Brandon Hontz. He could potentially ride the momentum he has picked up to a huge day at districts, just like Carmody did a year ago.

Some other names I like this week as sleepers include Tucker Desko, Matt Allen, Shaun Bullock, Jeff Montgomery, Brendan O’Toole, Zack Forney and Avery Lederer. And maybe even a deeper sleeper in Bryton Henry from Boyertown.

And finally, we move on to talking about teams. Apparently this post is going to be super long. There have been lots of great stories this year in the team race and I think any team that manages to crack the top 10 at districts this year should be incredibly proud. It’s a fantastic year team wise. I hesitate to write off any squad, but I’ve narrowed things to a top six with DT West, CB West, CB East, Henderson and Spring Ford as my picks. That being said, I could definitely see Owen J rallying from their disappointment and making a run at this thing, assuming they are still feeling relatively fresh after a big middle stretch of the year. They had two state qualifiers last year individually that are both back and ready to contend plus they know they can run with the big boys as proven by Foundation and Paul Short. I also think Pennsbury and William Tennent could potentially turn heads. Pennsbury has a better pack than I thought and WT has really put together a good looking team, rounding out their top 5 nicely at leagues. And heck, WC East, Wissahickon, Lower Merion, Harriton, North Penn and Hatboro Horsham have all had their fair share of moments in recent weeks. Like I said, just cracking the top 10 is going to be a big achievement.

But let’s get down to the state picks. DT West and CB West are close to locks. CB West has a great top five and even an off day won’t slow them down as their 6 and 7 are more than capable of filling in. The same goes for DT West who could probably rest a guy or two (or maybe three) and still move on. I’ll save the discussion of these squads for the state previews, but I will say if either team puts five guys under 16 that is big. Very, very few teams have ever done that and the ones who do are quite good. Is CB West looking at NXN regionals this year? Because they may want to consider it. DT West may rest some guys here considering they have been doing that all year just as Henderson did in 2012 before they beat O’Hara. I personally don’t like the idea of resting guys at this stage of the game, even though it clearly paid off for Henderson.

That leaves (at least) 4 remaining teams left to battle it out. It’s amazing the youth of these squads. Spring Ford has three sophomores in their scoring five (and may add a freshman to varsity for districts), CR North has three sophomores in their 6-7and CB East has three freshmen on their varsity seven. Then you add in the WC Henderson team who, is not particularly young, but does feature a variety of varsity race rookies. And their top runner is a sophomore. That could mean we end up with a wild finish where one team has an off day or a key runner on each team has an off race and that opens the door for one of those strong teams I left out of my top six to jump into contention. The theme of this season has really been, “no weak links” and this meet should personify that ideal considering how close I project these teams to be.

I’m nervous about Henderson. I’ve said it before, but I’m just a little nervous. I think their top two are really strong, but after that their pack doesn’t seem significantly better than those squads around them and it some cases you can argue they are going to be playing catch up. I don’t think the Carlisle field was particularly loaded this year because Foundation drew a lot of talent and it’s unclear just how talented the Chesmont was outside of DT West. Of course, they still have Coach Kelly, they still prove the doubters wrong every year, they still have a low stick and I should know better than to doubt the Chesmont, the Carlisle Invitational and Henderson. So they are in my top five.

That leaves the three truly young teams. I’m comfortable advancing CRN. They always come through in this spot and even with a young team, their pack and depth look like enough to move on. The lack of a true front runner is a bit of a concern definitely, but I’m optimistic about Heintz and Haas and I think they will get the job done. Spring Ford is built pretty similarly but, unlike CRN, there is more of a drop off from four to five. However, I think I like Spring Ford’s front running and big race experience a little better than Norths. Of course the drop off from 5 to 6 is always dangerous and even though I like what Conner and Smith (and now McKenna) have been able to do this season, they still don’t have any runner who is a lock for top 20. I can see situations where Spring Ford gets caught by the teams behind them, but I’m finally coming around to buy in on this team. I’ve got them slotted in my top five.

That leaves CB East. I’ve always been a fan of this team and loved the way they raced top to bottom during the track season. The goal all year has been this district meet (for everyone except Brophy) and last year’s 6th place finish still stings. I’m sure it does. That’s why it’s been so hard to pull away from this team in my top five. Goetz had a really good run at leagues (really good run) which, if he can build off that, will be huge for their 1-2 punch. It mainly comes down to the freshmen if two of them can deliver on race day with some PRs. David Endres is a really talented frosh as are the Sands brothers, but leaning too heavily on them could be dangerous. If they get all their guys in the first 80 or so finishers I think they will advance. If they have a guy outside the top 100, it is going to be very tricky. There are plenty of situations that I can imagine where East jumps one or more of the teams I have ahead of them, but at this point, if I have to choose only five teams to advance, I’m leaving them out. Barely. In fact, I almost finished typing this paragraph and then changed my mind.

FYI, last year I picked Pennsbury to get in and CB West to be left out (and didn’t even mention CB East) and that was dead wrong. So we will see what happens this time around …

1. DT West
2. CB West
3. CR North
4. Spring Ford
5. WC Henderson
6. CB East
7. Owen J Roberts
8. Pennsbury
9. William Tennent
10. Lower Merion

1
Jake
Brophy
CB East
Sr
2
Jaxson
Hoey
DT West
Sr
3
Josh
Hoey
DT West
So
4
Jeff
Kirshenbaum
Methacton
Sr
5
Henry
Sappey
DT West
Sr
6
Kent
Hall
Unionville
Sr
7
Rock
Fortna
CB West
Sr
8
Spencer
Smucker
WC Hen
So
9
Connor
McMenamin
Souderton
Jr
10
Sean
McGinnis
Phoenixville
Sr
11
Lukas
Marcelis
Wissahickon
Sr
12
Rusty
Kujdych
Neshaminy
So
13
Rahi
Shah
Bensaelm
Sr
14
Matt
D'Aquila
Lower Merion
Jr
15
James
Abrahams
Haverford
Jr
16
Liam
Conway
Owen J
So
17
Brian
Iatarola
CB West
Jr
18
Matt
Scarpill
CB South
Jr
19
Jake
Ilgenfritz
Avon Grove
Sr
20
Joe
Maguire
CR South
Sr
21
Andrew
Maxwell
Kennett
Jr
22
Ben
Smullen
CB West
Jr
23
Jonah
Gillespie-Sickman
Harriton
Sr
24
Ryan
Barton
DT West
Jr
25
Carson
Reuther
WC Hen
Sr
26
Liam
Galligan
Springfield
Jr
27
Eric
Kersten
Pennsbury
Jr
28
Jack
Carmody
Rustin
Sr
29
Ben
Heintz
CR North
Sr
30
Tucker
Desko
Pennridge
Sr
31
Declan
McDonald
CB West
Jr
32
Tim
Haas
CR North
Jr
33
Dylan
Smiley
Phoenixville
Sr
34
John
Conner
Spring Ford
Sr
35
Brian
Mass
CB West
Jr
36
Joshua
Goetz
CB East
Sr
37
PJ
Murray
Conestoga
Sr
38
Shaun
Bullock
DT West
Jr
39
Brandon
Hontz
Rustin
Sr
40
Matt
Allen
Hatboro
Sr
41
Jared
Bixler
Hatboro
So
42
Zach
Smith
Spring Ford
So
43
Sean
Rahill
WT
So
44
Abe
Van Helmond
Owen J
Sr
45
Avery
Lederer
Penncrest
So
46
Zack
Forney
Ridley
So
47
Ben
Ryherd
DT West
Sr
48
Jake
O'Neill
DT West
Jr
49
Rob
Moser
WC East
Sr
50
Jeff
Montgomery
Perk
Sr

 

13 comments:

  1. DTW
    CBW
    CBE
    WCH
    CRN

    Front-running is going to be absolutely huge in this race. Spring Ford and CRN are weakest there, but I think CRN has a better pack as well as history going for it.

    Jaxson (speed wins out at Lehigh)
    Brophy
    Josh
    Fortna (see rationale for Jaxson)
    Sappey (this dude was 10th at states last year, in case we all forgot that, and just ran a mile PR)
    Kirshenbaum
    Smucker
    Conway (he and Smucker are the future and will both have team aspirations, though the gap will be bigger at States since Lehigh especially favors Conway)
    Hall
    McMenamin
    Kujdych (not gonna lie, I want to see this kid do well because Neshaminy isn't exactly a powerhouse and it was super promising that he ran 9:34 as a frosh last spring)
    Barton
    And then a bunch of people who I don't really know where to rank - McGinnis, Shah, D'Aquila, Abrahams, Scarpill, Gillespie-Sickman, Galligan, Desko, Kersten, Marcelis, probably 2-3 of the CBW guys, Reuther, and maybe Heintz or Haas - should all finish between 15:40 and 16:00

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree with most of these, but don't underestimate Brophy. He's still got speed. 15:06 at SOL was not to shabby. Also I think a solid pack is going to be crucial because of the shear number of talented runners in this race. We're going to see a lot of sub 16s.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Some of your SOL picks are...interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1. Jake Brophy
    2. Josh Hoey
    3. Jaxson Hoey
    4. Kent Hall
    5. Henry Sappey
    6. Spencer Smucker
    7. Rock Fortna
    8. Jeff Kirshenbaum
    9. Connor McMenamin
    10. Liam Conway

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now these are good predictions.

      Delete
    2. This all assumes DWest runs the the Hoey's and Sappy which is far from a done deal.

      Delete
  5. I feel ya on WCH, Jarrett. I don't think they're going to make the cut either. Other than their top 2, the rest of the pack has yet to come together even with Coach Kelly leading the way.
    Hoey definitely has speed but I would not underestimate that ability in Brophy. I saw him run a monster final 400 to win the 3k or 3200(?)at Henderson last Spring. Was really impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  6. DWest and Shanahan(?)...shouldn't someone be testing the water in Downingtown?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who knows what’s in the water up there but this DTW could be a force for many years to come. They’ve got a lot of talent, they’re very deep and have built a nice program which usually attracts even more talent to the sport. And even with Jaxson Hoey and Sappey graduating there’s another Hoey coming up who could probably already be a force on the team.

      The last team with this kind of depth was probably WCH 2012/2013. In 2012 they had held back a couple of guys at Districts to stay fresh for what was going to be a real tough states to try to upset an O’hara team that beat them convincingly earlier in the season. As it turned out that race was about as tough as possible, being decided by about an inch with WCH taking the championship. But this DTW team is more like the 2013 WCH team, where winning states should be a slam dunk. So like the 2013 WCH team that put all 7 varsity under 16:00 at Districts, DTW really has no reason to hold back tomorrow. In fact, given the relatively light race schedule for some of them so far, it might be beneficial to go hard and get race sharp for states and nationals.

      I remember seeing the Hoey’s run at Short last year and thinking Jaxson looked worn out and it was only late September. As it turns out what we didn’t know and what he probably didn’t know at the time was he had an injury that was about to shut him down for the rest of XC and all of indoor. With that tough break I could see why a runner and coach might be cautious and pass on some lighter meets to focus on the big meets, especially for a senior. But I can’t see them holding back now. I expect to see a real impressive Districts/States out of the DTW top guys.

      So if DTW goes all out tomorrow, they may better that 2006 Coatesville team that won with a ridiculous 51 points and the 2013 WCH team that won with 60. The Hoeys and Sappey are expected to be top 10 but Barton is a guy who may go low too, especially on the Lehigh course. Hopefully we see some history tomorrow.

      I haven’t made any predictions in a while but with Etrain’s gamesmanship calling out PennTrack my interest is way up! My D1 picks to go on to states are DTW, CBW, CRN, WCH and CBE. The CBE pick is counting on some young guys to come through but what the heck, they have enough of them. I do think DTW has a shot at that Coatesville mark but ultimately comes in with a dominating win of around 55 points.

      In the individual race, I agree with Etrain this is going out real hard. There’s a chance that some really fired up guys might get out too hard with the leaders and have a bad day too. But I think ultimately 3 lead the field with poor Brophy being caught in the middle of Hoey sibling rivalries for half the race before pulling away to win in sub 15:00.

      -RJJL

      Delete
    2. Dwest with 49, Hoey's 1-2.

      Delete
  7. dtw, cbw, springford, crn, wch

    Brophy, jaxon, joey, sappey, kirchenbaum, mcnenim, fortna, hall, smucker, marcelis.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Brophy looked really good. DTW looks good through 3, but they're not an all-time great team. They better watch out for NA and CBW at States. If one of their top 3 blows up, they could be in trouble. All 3 of those guys looked really solid though. Shanahan won in AA but they only would have been 17-20 in AAA and would have lost to DTW's JV. Also, they recruited 2 of their top 5 from Coatesville. Without them, HGP beats them.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If not for the Hoey's all that talent at DWest would have come up short again at districts and missed states.

    ReplyDelete