District Week: District One Preview

By Jarrett Felix

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

At Foundation, it looked like New Hope was poised to easily repeat as District One A Champions in 2015 and perhaps become contenders at states. However, with Chris Cammarata out of the line up the past two weeks and a Jenkintown team hot off its best stretch of running this season, that favorite status has been called into question. Jenkintown’s Christian Geer took the jump into district title contention at leagues, defeating Michael Gunden of Christopher Dock and Jamaal Aw-Yoonis of Church Farm School. Joshua Jackson was one of the top runners in the district last year as a freshman and seems to be on track to finish near the top again this season. Behind him are two talented froshes who can learn from his success: Jack Miller and Patrick Wagner. This is definitely a young team that could be vulnerable on the big stage, but they are extremely talented.

If Chris Cammarata comes back and joins his brother Eric, New Hope’s 1-2 punch transforms back into a team that can rival Jenkintown. However, it’s unclear if that will happen which means New Hope will have to rely more heavily on it’s pack. The good news is, that pack is quite good with Joshua House, Bradley Neumann and Sam Lombardi having strong seasons thus far and Anthony Lagana looking like he is ready to step up as well. If they can squeeze enough runners in front of Jenkintown’s #5 and keep it close out front (both of which may take some help from the other schools in the district) than New Hope can still reign as D1 A powers.

Individually, this is setting up to an awesome battle between Michael Gunden, Jamaal Aw-Yoonis and Christian Geer. These three have each had their fair share of moments this season but Gunden’s run at Paul Short (the course that will house districts) plus his performance at last year’s meet slots him just ahead of the other two in my eyes. Michael Logie from Delware Christian is another name to remember, although I haven’t seen his name in many results, he’s a big talent. Tim Kennel from Christopher Dock has shown excellent potential as well, running slightly obscured by his teammate Gunden. He will hope to follow Mike to the state meet individually as the CD team is a long shot to qualify.

1. Jenkintown

2. New Hope

3. Christopher Dock

1	Michael	Gunden	Christopher Dock	Sr
2	Jamaal	Aw-Yoonis	Church Farm	Sr
3	Christian	Geer	Jenkintown	Sr
4	Tim	Kennel	Christopher Dock	So
5	Joshua	Jackson	Jenkintown	So
6	Eric	Cammarata	New Hope	Jr
7	Michael	Logie	Delaware CC	Sr
8	Jack	Miller	Jenkintown	Fr
9	Chris	Cammarata	New Hope	So
10	Joshua	House	New Hope	Jr
11	Patrick	Wagner	Jenkintown	Fr
12	Bradley	Neumann	New Hope	Sr
13	Isaiah	Denlinger	Christopher Dock	So
14	Sam	Lombardi	New Hope	Jr
15	Anthony	Lagana	New Hope	Jr

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

Pottsgrove has won the AA team title every year since we split to three classifications and, quite frankly, they’ve done it in impressive fashion. Last year, despite buzz around Shanahan and HG Prep, they rolled through the competition and in 2013 and 2012 they ended up grabbing medals at the state meet, finishing 2^nd and 1^st respectively. This year’s squad started out fast again, placing 4^th as a team at a loaded foundation meet ahead of Knoch and just behind Grove City. So there’s reason to believe whoever wins the District One Championship will be a contender for a top five placing at the state championship.

The key word there is “whoever”. Pottsgrove has faltered a bit in there last two big meet performances, opening the door for a potential 1^st time victor in HG Prep or Bishop Shanahan. Although I’m never completely ready to count out Pottsgrove (they return a good chunk of last year’s district champ squad), to me it seems this will be a two way battle between Holy Ghost and the Bishop.

I’ve had a hard time getting a read for this match up. HG Prep and Shanahan both have crossed paths with WC East a variety of times and there was fairly mixed results. At Paul Short, both teams looked very strong, however both teams also competed in different races meaning we were robbed of a potential mid-season head to head match up. Recently, HGP ran at Bicentennial Leagues, but dominated against a field mainly made up of A competition. Shanahan hasn’t raced an XC invite since Chesmonts a few weeks back, but they did crush a 3200m on the track, putting 4 guys right at 10 minutes. And their 5^th was Jack Ettien, the freshman who has led this team at every major invitational this fall.

It tentatively looks like HG Prep will take 1-2 in this match-up, especially if Patrick Donahue can recapture the form he showcased at the George School Invitational. Then Shanahan’s pack of four that ran under 17 minutes in the Paul Short White Race, Chris Kolimago, Jack and Blake Ettien and Spencer Breslin, will have to file in close behind, ahead of HGP’s pack and hopefully not split by Pottsgrove’s top runners Neeson and Wurtz. Then it comes down to how big of a day someone like Logan Yoquinto may have for BS in the 5 spot. He’s shown strong potential, running well in a dual meet against Henderson and clocking a quick 3200m last week, but this will be a bigger, longer stage for the sophomore who has excelled as a 400/800 man in the past. That being said, I still think this BS pack is over better than HG Preps and, ultimately, I think this race is close but leans towards Shanahan.

Individually, Holy Ghost has the big upper hand in the individual title race. Callahan Lennon and Patrick Donahue have looked the best of any runner in the district this year and Lennon is one of the top returners from last season, peaking well for this meet. The other top returner is Pottsgrove’s Brendan Wurtz, who struggled at Pac 10s, but ran quite well at Hershey and Paul Short on back to back weekends. Pottsgrove’s best shot at the title, however, will likely be Michael Neeson who is having a fantastic year and has led the team at their major meets this year, ahead of Wurtz.

Bishop Shanahan will hope their pack is also in contention at the front of the race as Chris Kolimago could be a sleeper here. He’s a proven, strong speed runner and this course should complement his skill set. And if Chris can contend, so too can Jack Ettien who has been the team’s leader on the trails this fall. He’s just a freshman so there is potential for him to fold under the bright lights, but he’s given no indication that will be the case this season. He ran a conservative style at Paul Short, picking off a lot of runners after the mile, so I will be curious how he contends late in this race, especially if the top runners burn themselves out in the early going chasing a fast time.

1. Bishop Shanahan

2. HG Prep

3. Pottsgrove

1	Callahan	Lennon	HG Prep	Jr
2	Patrick	Donahue	HG Prep	Sr
3	Michael	Neeson	Pottsgrove	Jr
4	Chris	Kolimago	Bishop Shanahan	Sr
5	Jack	Ettien	Bishop Shanahan	Fr
6	Seamus	Breslin	Bishop Shanahan	Sr
7	Brendan	Wurtz	Pottsgrove	Sr
8	Blake	Ettien	Bishop Shanahan	Sr
9	Kevin	Sheppard	HG Prep	Sr
10	Logan	Yoquinto	Bishop Shanahan	So
11	Sean	Dixon	HG Prep	Jr
12	Landon	Detweiler	Upper Perkiomen	Jr
13	Antonio	Decena	John Paul II	Sr
14	Kevin	Dineen	HG Prep	Jr
15	Justin	Beasley-Turner	Pottstown	Sr
16	Aaron	Morris	Springfield
17	Liam	Flood	HG Prep	Jr
18	Joseph	Drager	Pottsgrove	Sr

AAA (5 Teams, 25 Individuals)
Ah yes, here we are. The race that I’ve pondering so often, I can speak about it for nearly an hour. Seriously, you can listen to the podcast right here on our site as proof. For those who listened, I’ll try not to be too repetitive with what I said on the podcast. For those who did not, I’ll still try to hit the main points here for you to enjoy.

The biggest takeaway that you can  claim for this one is: I think this race is (weather permitting) going to be very, very fast. The race will undoubtedly get out hard with Brophy and the Hoeys (one or both of which could maybe be held out, but I doubt it) not afraid to get after it and chase a fast time. Brophy wants sub 15 and the last time we saw a sub 15 at Districts (Tony Russell in 2013) we saw 32 runners crack 16 minutes. The time before that (2006), we saw 36 runners crack 16 minutes with another three at 16 flat. The performances I saw at leagues indicate to me there is enough talent to pull our state qualifying cut offs down towards 16 flat again and certainly under 16:10. To give you an idea, I currently have Matt Allen and Jared Bixler of Hatboro Horsham among my “guys on the bubble” picks and they both ran under 16:20 at this course last week. And it’s not uncommon (in fact it’s frequent) for guys to drop an extra 10+ seconds from leagues to districts depending on how the competition level changes and if they have a good day.  Jeff Montgomery, a sleeper pick in this one that I currently have slotted at 50^th, I believe was under 16:20 in sloppy conditions at Paul Short about a month ago. Like I said, there’s a lot of talent.

So let’s talk individuals. There are a ton of guys that I could talk about here considering how much talent we have available and I already hit a lot of names on the podcast. You can see my full list of projected qualifiers below and I extended the list out to a top 50 predicted just for fun. Brophy is entering Jimmy Springer territory (running diaries reference) as he approaches the state meet with the potential to lower his already crazy 15:24 Hershey record. A guy of his talent who wants sub 15 as badly as he does will be hard pressed not to get it. He, Jaxson and Josh should all be able to run together and push each other towards a fast mark. I think it will be close for a while, but Brophy will be able to drop the hammer coming down the last down-hill and take the victory. I’m very interested to see what Jaxson and Josh do on this course and who wins out of the pair considering their Manhattan run.

The second tier, in my eyes, is probably Kirshenbaum, Sappey, Hall, Fortna and Smucker with potential for guys like McMenamin, McGinnis, Marcelis, Kujdych, Shah and maybe even whoever ends up the top Central League guy (Abrahams, D’Aquila, JGS). I personally think Kirshenbaum and Hall are having crazy good seasons and I think both could potentially be top 10 guys at states. However, I do think both guys might be more built for Hershey than Lehigh (although that shouldn’t stop the pair from running fast) so they could get jumped by a few guys. Sappey, too, feels like a guy who could do more damage on the hills, but he also just dropped a 4:24 mile and has been training with 3 sub 4:20 milers. He is also the top returner from this tier from Districts last year. Smucker is another one, I’m not sure which course favors him best, but the numbers say Hershey (admittedly a small sample size). Of course I’m not sure the last time Henderson didn’t have a top 10 finisher at this meet so I’d be stunned if Spence is on the outside looking in.

That leaves Rock Fortna as a potential breakthrough performer. He beat Ryan James and Rob Morro at Briarwood this year and also added a 15:32 somewhat solo at Leagues. Considering he has split 4:16/1:54, this guy might be on the verge of a 15 teens type performance (again, weather permitting) at districts which would be huge. Yet last year he was jumped by guys like Connor McMenamin so nothing is set in stone.

Lukas Marcelis is high on my “this guy needs more love” list this season. He cruised to a 16:08. Cruised to it. We have yet to see this kid’s true potential. And I’m saying this about a Wissahickon kid so you know I must believe it. Kujdych also really has turned it on in recent weeks. He was running like a mid-pack top 25ish type runner in the district for much of the early season but his last two races have completely changed my mind. The extra competition at districts should benefit him and maybe pull him far enough away from Shah so that he won’t get outkicked this time around.

There’s some names I’m skipping, but let me give a few guys some chatter than I’m curious about. Andrew Maxwell from Kennett had a fantastic race here last year and was one of the top sophomores in the meet, beating guys like Ryan Barton and Liam Galligan who ended up topping him at states (and therefore stealing a lot of the spotlight). Maxwell had a strong race at Chesmonts and has consistently improved all season. He could be a sleeper in this race. Jake Ilgenfritz is another Chesmont runner who has had a killer season. His finishes at Carlisle and Paul Short were fantastic and he was in the mix with some very elite names. I’m optimistic about his chances to impress. And how about Matt Scarpill from CB South? He was a super talented freshman who hasn’t really been healthy for a full XC season. He’s starting to showcase his potential now, breaking 16 minutes at suburbans. Lastly, great running this year from Rustin’s Brandon Hontz. He could potentially ride the momentum he has picked up to a huge day at districts, just like Carmody did a year ago.

Some other names I like this week as sleepers include Tucker Desko, Matt Allen, Shaun Bullock, Jeff Montgomery, Brendan O’Toole, Zack Forney and Avery Lederer. And maybe even a deeper sleeper in Bryton Henry from Boyertown.

And finally, we move on to talking about teams. Apparently this post is going to be super long. There have been lots of great stories this year in the team race and I think any team that manages to crack the top 10 at districts this year should be incredibly proud. It’s a fantastic year team wise. I hesitate to write off any squad, but I’ve narrowed things to a top six with DT West, CB West, CB East, Henderson and Spring Ford as my picks. That being said, I could definitely see Owen J rallying from their disappointment and making a run at this thing, assuming they are still feeling relatively fresh after a big middle stretch of the year. They had two state qualifiers last year individually that are both back and ready to contend plus they know they can run with the big boys as proven by Foundation and Paul Short. I also think Pennsbury and William Tennent could potentially turn heads. Pennsbury has a better pack than I thought and WT has really put together a good looking team, rounding out their top 5 nicely at leagues. And heck, WC East, Wissahickon, Lower Merion, Harriton, North Penn and Hatboro Horsham have all had their fair share of moments in recent weeks. Like I said, just cracking the top 10 is going to be a big achievement.

But let’s get down to the state picks. DT West and CB West are close to locks. CB West has a great top five and even an off day won’t slow them down as their 6 and 7 are more than capable of filling in. The same goes for DT West who could probably rest a guy or two (or maybe three) and still move on. I’ll save the discussion of these squads for the state previews, but I will say if either team puts five guys under 16 that is big. Very, very few teams have ever done that and the ones who do are quite good. Is CB West looking at NXN regionals this year? Because they may want to consider it. DT West may rest some guys here considering they have been doing that all year just as Henderson did in 2012 before they beat O’Hara. I personally don’t like the idea of resting guys at this stage of the game, even though it clearly paid off for Henderson.

That leaves (at least) 4 remaining teams left to battle it out. It’s amazing the youth of these squads. Spring Ford has three sophomores in their scoring five (and may add a freshman to varsity for districts), CR North has three sophomores in their 6-7and CB East has three freshmen on their varsity seven. Then you add in the WC Henderson team who, is not particularly young, but does feature a variety of varsity race rookies. And their top runner is a sophomore. That could mean we end up with a wild finish where one team has an off day or a key runner on each team has an off race and that opens the door for one of those strong teams I left out of my top six to jump into contention. The theme of this season has really been, “no weak links” and this meet should personify that ideal considering how close I project these teams to be.

I’m nervous about Henderson. I’ve said it before, but I’m just a little nervous. I think their top two are really strong, but after that their pack doesn’t seem significantly better than those squads around them and it some cases you can argue they are going to be playing catch up. I don’t think the Carlisle field was particularly loaded this year because Foundation drew a lot of talent and it’s unclear just how talented the Chesmont was outside of DT West. Of course, they still have Coach Kelly, they still prove the doubters wrong every year, they still have a low stick and I should know better than to doubt the Chesmont, the Carlisle Invitational and Henderson. So they are in my top five.

That leaves the three truly young teams. I’m comfortable advancing CRN. They always come through in this spot and even with a young team, their pack and depth look like enough to move on. The lack of a true front runner is a bit of a concern definitely, but I’m optimistic about Heintz and Haas and I think they will get the job done. Spring Ford is built pretty similarly but, unlike CRN, there is more of a drop off from four to five. However, I think I like Spring Ford’s front running and big race experience a little better than Norths. Of course the drop off from 5 to 6 is always dangerous and even though I like what Conner and Smith (and now McKenna) have been able to do this season, they still don’t have any runner who is a lock for top 20. I can see situations where Spring Ford gets caught by the teams behind them, but I’m finally coming around to buy in on this team. I’ve got them slotted in my top five.

That leaves CB East. I’ve always been a fan of this team and loved the way they raced top to bottom during the track season. The goal all year has been this district meet (for everyone except Brophy) and last year’s 6^th place finish still stings. I’m sure it does. That’s why it’s been so hard to pull away from this team in my top five. Goetz had a really good run at leagues (really good run) which, if he can build off that, will be huge for their 1-2 punch. It mainly comes down to the freshmen if two of them can deliver on race day with some PRs. David Endres is a really talented frosh as are the Sands brothers, but leaning too heavily on them could be dangerous. If they get all their guys in the first 80 or so finishers I think they will advance. If they have a guy outside the top 100, it is going to be very tricky. There are plenty of situations that I can imagine where East jumps one or more of the teams I have ahead of them, but at this point, if I have to choose only five teams to advance, I’m leaving them out. Barely. In fact, I almost finished typing this paragraph and then changed my mind.

FYI, last year I picked Pennsbury to get in and CB West to be left out (and didn’t even mention CB East) and that was dead wrong. So we will see what happens this time around …

1. DT West	2. CB West	3. CR North	4. Spring Ford	5. WC Henderson
6. CB East	7. Owen J Roberts	8. Pennsbury	9. William Tennent	10. Lower Merion

1	Jake	Brophy	CB East	Sr
2	Jaxson	Hoey	DT West	Sr
3	Josh	Hoey	DT West	So
4	Jeff	Kirshenbaum	Methacton	Sr
5	Henry	Sappey	DT West	Sr
6	Kent	Hall	Unionville	Sr
7	Rock	Fortna	CB West	Sr
8	Spencer	Smucker	WC Hen	So
9	Connor	McMenamin	Souderton	Jr
10	Sean	McGinnis	Phoenixville	Sr
11	Lukas	Marcelis	Wissahickon	Sr
12	Rusty	Kujdych	Neshaminy	So
13	Rahi	Shah	Bensaelm	Sr
14	Matt	D'Aquila	Lower Merion	Jr
15	James	Abrahams	Haverford	Jr
16	Liam	Conway	Owen J	So
17	Brian	Iatarola	CB West	Jr
18	Matt	Scarpill	CB South	Jr
19	Jake	Ilgenfritz	Avon Grove	Sr
20	Joe	Maguire	CR South	Sr
21	Andrew	Maxwell	Kennett	Jr
22	Ben	Smullen	CB West	Jr
23	Jonah	Gillespie-Sickman	Harriton	Sr
24	Ryan	Barton	DT West	Jr
25	Carson	Reuther	WC Hen	Sr
26	Liam	Galligan	Springfield	Jr
27	Eric	Kersten	Pennsbury	Jr
28	Jack	Carmody	Rustin	Sr
29	Ben	Heintz	CR North	Sr
30	Tucker	Desko	Pennridge	Sr
31	Declan	McDonald	CB West	Jr
32	Tim	Haas	CR North	Jr
33	Dylan	Smiley	Phoenixville	Sr
34	John	Conner	Spring Ford	Sr
35	Brian	Mass	CB West	Jr
36	Joshua	Goetz	CB East	Sr
37	PJ	Murray	Conestoga	Sr
38	Shaun	Bullock	DT West	Jr
39	Brandon	Hontz	Rustin	Sr
40	Matt	Allen	Hatboro	Sr
41	Jared	Bixler	Hatboro	So
42	Zach	Smith	Spring Ford	So
43	Sean	Rahill	WT	So
44	Abe	Van Helmond	Owen J	Sr
45	Avery	Lederer	Penncrest	So
46	Zack	Forney	Ridley	So
47	Ben	Ryherd	DT West	Sr
48	Jake	O'Neill	DT West	Jr
49	Rob	Moser	WC East	Sr
50	Jeff	Montgomery	Perk	Sr