District Week: District 11 Preview

By Jarrett Felix

This is the District 11 preview. Feel free to scroll down to the District 2 preview to get a feel for what exactly goes into each of these projects and you can read my disclaimer that some of these predictions will be much more accurate than others based on personal experience and data availability. You can also use the label system to filter based on the label "districtweek" and keep track of all the previews that will be going up throughout the week!

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

Last year’s individual champ Sam Li of Moravian Academy is back to defend his title against last year’s runner-up Mike Sheptuk of Notre Dame ES. Li was off to a nice start again in 2014, but was missing from the league results this past weekend, putting some doubts in my mind about his health to defend his title. Meanwhile, Sheptuk looked fantastic in early action before his team began retreating off the center stage in big-time invitationals. The A action is always tricky to call because many programs are not incredibly active, but assuming these two runners are healthy they are the class of the field on paper.

One of the runners looking to topple these titans is Weatherly Area’s Jared Hinkle. The Senior ran 17:42 for 9^th at Schuylkill League, a league championship dominated by AA schools. In the process, he beat some of his biggest competitors at the A level like Matt Derr of Mahanoy who placed 21^st in 18:16 and Marian Catholic’s talented sophomore Aaron Srinivasan who was 24^th.

Derr, a potential top five finisher at districts, leads his Mahanoy squad into districts hoping the squad can turn the tables on the Notre Dame squad that beat them last year. Derr, Adam Bahrey and  Seth Soriano looked strong in the Foundation invitational while Willie Striesel made big strides forward at leagues. The team had a 45 second spread last time out and that was with Bahrey (last year’s 5^th place finisher, 3^rd in 2013 before ES joined) finishing as the squad’s #6. They have a fantastic pack, much improved from their 2014 showing, and some looming potential in the front running spots.

But can Mahanoy overcome the powerhouse that is Notre Dame? ES won last year with 40 points and three finishers in the top six overall. Led by Sheptuk again in 2015, they should have at least one man in the top three with a few others (Andrew Beers, Connor Naughton, Kyle McCarthy) knocking on the door for repeat performances.  Mahanoy has come a long way in the last two years, but there is excellent potential on the ES roster. Although they haven’t raced much, if they put it together on race day they could look very impressive.

1. Notre Dame ES

2. Mahanoy

3. Moravian Academy

1	Mike	Sheptuk	Notre Dame ES	Sr
2	Sam	Li	Moravian Academy	Sr
3	Jared	Hinkle	Weatherly	Sr
4	Matt	Derr	Mahanoy	Jr
5	Andrew	Beers	Notre Dame ES
6	Aaron	Srinivasan	Marian Catholic	So
7	Seth	Soriano	Mahanoy	So
8	Jordan	Holmquist	Moravian Academy	Fr
9	Hunter	Zahm	Moravian Academy	So
10	Connor	Naughton	Notre Dame ES
11	Willie	Striesel	Mahanoy	So
12	Adam	Bahrey	Mahanoy	Sr

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)
Allentown Central Catholic stormed their way to a district title in 2014, unseating the heavy favorites from Jim Thorpe Area behind a 51 second spread and overcoming the Thorpe’s viscous 1-2 punch. With much of the squad back again in 2015, they have locked down favorite honors this time around and a few other programs will be looking to come knock them from their pedestal.

Chris Vaughn was the team’s #2 runner a year ago and he showcased his potential with a 17:37 at Bethlehem Municipal this past weekend. Michael Graspy also had a phenomenal performance in the #2 spot, running just behind Vaughn at 17:39. Sophomore Tim Gribb had a strong showing at Foundation and could potentially be a game changer at the #3 spot if things break right this weekend. Brad Kreider (last year’s #1) hasn’t competed in 2015 and might be injured, but even if he is at half strength he could potentially give ACC yet another low stick contender. Don’t sleep on Conner Miller either, he was 20^th at districts last year as a sophomore and I believe his brother John was 2^nd in 2013.

Assuming Allentown CC runs to their potential, they should lock up a state spot for 2015, leaving one available for the rest of the district. The front-runner for the spot might be North Schuylkill. Although NS finished just 8^th in 2014, this team has proven itself as a state contender in the past, particularly when they were led by Brendan Shearn. This year’s top dog, Chris McCormick has been excellent, finishing second at the Schuylkill league championships to likely district title favorite Dylan Bucior of Jim Thorpe. McCormick didn’t crack the top 30 at last year’s district meet, so he will have an extra chip on his shoulder with something to prove this year. And his teammates should feel confident as well. They pushed ACC at Foundation, finishing just 2 points behind with a better 4-5 finish. Plus, they just grabbed a league title over some of their primary competitors: Tamaqua, Lehighton, Jim Thorpe, and Blue Mountain.

Fun fact: Tamaqua, Jim Thorpe, and Blue Mountain all had exactly 92 points at their league championship, meaning they split a three way 6^th man tie breaker to decide the final standings. And those 6^th men were 51^st-54^th-57^th. Wow! I’m not sure any of these teams can get through to states by beating the excellent teams ahead of them, although they have nice upside. Thorpe has great front running and solid experience, having qualified a year ago. Their 5-6-7 men are freshmen who will be in for a tough battle on the big stage. Tamaqua has a sick top three, but their 4-5 were roughly a minute and 90 seconds behind the pace out front. If that changes due to a breakout race or a return from injury from someone outside the big three, they could surprise. Blue Mountain is built very similarly to Jim Thorpe, but I think Thorpe’s best three will end up giving them the upper hand at districts.

That leaves Lehighton, Saucon Valley and Notre Dame GP to contend for the final state qualifying spots. Lehighton pushed North Schuylkill very well at leagues, leaning on an excellent top 2 in Michael Blackketter and Trent Frey. However, NS managed to get 7 guys in before Lehighton’s #5 and at districts, a potentially much stronger meet out front, that could be a deal breaker. Saucon Valley didn’t look jaw dropping at their league meet, but they also should get a big lift out of Jarred Kyra, a potential individual state qualifier who finished 11^th at districts a year ago. Their top dog recently, Ethan Bernstein, nearly broke 17 minutes in the white race at Paul Short as just a sophomore. These two and Jeremy Smith give this squad a formidable top 3, but they have question marks after that. Teams like Northwestern Lehigh and Wilson can jump them (especially if Joe Espinal comes back) if things go their way at districts.

Finally, we have Notre Dame GP. They are my pick to grab the final spot after winning the Colonial League Championships with 61 points. They ran slower times than NS, but I think it was on a more difficult course. I’m a little worried about their front runner being a freshman, but the Koons family has proven in the past how talented they are. It’s a young team (frosh, soph, soph, junior was their top 4 at leagues), but also a talented and determined team that finished 3^rd at districts a year ago. If Devon Fogel has a big day (he was the team’s #5 at leagues but was 12^th at districts last year as the team’s #1 man) then I think these guys can punch their tickets.

But enough team talk, let’s (finally) get to the individuals. With Gonoude and Condly graduating (a pair of state medalists) and Joe Espinal seemingly injured (he missed his last couple races), the championship window seems quite wide for Jim Thorpe’s Dylan Bucior. The senior absolutely dominated the Schuylkill League Championships and has looked phenomenal in invitational action thus far in 2015. I think he has the potential to really run away with the crown. My wildcards come from the Colonial league where Palmerton’s Zach Svetik and Northern Lehigh’s Gavin Kemery finished 1-2 in a strong field. Kemery has proven himself at districts in the past while Svetik seems to be gaining momentum quick this season (he’s run 16:38 at Northhampton as well).

1. Allentown CC

2. Notre Dame GP

3. North Schuylkill

4. Lehighton

1	Dylan	Bucior	Jim Thorpe	Sr
2	Gavin	Kemery	Northern Lehigh	Sr
3	Zach	Svetik	Palmerton	Sr
4	Chris	Vaughn	Allentown CC	Sr
5	Chris	McCormick	North Schuylkill	Jr
6	Ethan	Bernstein	Saucon Valley	So
7	Michael	Graspy	Allentown CC	Jr
8	John	Koons	Notre Dame GP	Fr
9	Michael	Blacketter	Lehighton	Jr
10	Tim	Gribb	Allentown CC	So
11	Alex	Race	Wilson	Jr
12	Trent	Frey	Lehighton	Sr
13	Anthony	Pacchioli	Notre Dame GP	So
14	Thomas	Levkulic	Blue Mountain	Jr
15	Jarred	Kyra	Saucon Valley	Jr
16	Charles	Hohl	Notre Dame GP	So
17	Conner	Miller	Allentown CC	Jr
18	Adam	Melnick	Tamaqua	Jr
19	Joseph	Nortavage	Tamaqua	Sr
20	Jeremy	Smith	Saucon Valley	Sr

AAA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

A couple weeks ago, I was all set to just award the district championship to Parkland and move on. You can go back and find the posts that prove it. But hold on there, here comes Easton! The 5^th place finishers at last year’s state championship showed why they were more than just Colin Abert’s pretty face in 2014, pushing Parkland in a close battle at EPCs: 42-51. Here’s the thing, districts is a small meet and it’s not particularly front loaded so scores are going to be low for really good teams, there is just not enough talent to push things towards the 100s. That means either team can win if they have the right day or if they catch their opposition napping.

I think Parkland accepts the wake up call from EPCs and really turns it on for districts. Michael Geiger should be a nice X-factor in this race considering he was a valuable front runner at Paul Short and for basically each of the last two years, but had a tough day to finish 14^th (team’s #5) at leagues. But the good news is that even if somebody like Geiger has an off day, Parkland has proven they have the depth to fill in the gaps. Sam Morgan had a huge race for 6^th, impressing after a down race at Paul Short and giving this squad another front running piece to rally behind. Nicholas Bower, just a freshman, had an excellent run at Paul Short and could potentially crack the top 5 scorers for this squad at districts and continue the inner squad turnover. That competition within the team is going to make everybody better and, if things click well, Parkland could throw down something impressive.

But let’s give credit to Easton here. Lapsansky is a heavy favorite for the District title and a young group of runners in Hammerstone and Ozgar (soph and frosh) ran huge races to take 9^th and 11^th at leagues. Considering Sherman and Koch were scoring members of last year’s state squad and they are currently running in the 4-5 type spots, this team clearly has state level talent. There’s a bit of a drop off between 5 and 6 and the squad did have a huge breakthrough at leagues that might be tough to repeat. However, the talent on the roster implies this team can’t be overlooked or Parkland will pay the price.

Props to Emmaus who has had a nice year, particularly behind their top 3. I don’t think they are getting into the state qualifying mix as too many things would have to break their way in the pack park of the race, but they have had an excellent season that will hopefully culminate with a strong showing at districts.

Individually, I think EPC was a good preview of what is to come at districts. Lapsansky is the run away favorite, but there are a few names behind him with talent. One of the best names, Dan Quigley, didn’t run EPCs. Hopefully he is healthy and ready to return to action (he was 3^rd at districts last fall, one spot behind Kevin) considering he ran a phenomenal race at Paul Short and was a top 50 finisher at states in 2014. His Freedom teammate Will Alpaugh had his best race of the year at districts last fall, taking 5^th, and might have another big day in the tank.

I’ll be keeping my eye on Seth Slavin and Dan Kyvelos. Kyvelos has been particularly impressive to me and, as I’ve mentioned before, tends to peak at the right time. Seth Slavin has had a bit of an up and down season, but his ups are very good. Slavin won the freshman/sophomore race at Foot Locker Regionals last year after he cracked the top 50 at states. His flashes of potential are extraordinary and his second place finish at EPCs shows just how strong a competitor he is. But we need to see which version of Slavin shows up on race day.

For sleeper purposes, be on the look out for Teddy Mostellar of Stroudsburg. He ran 16:44 in the White Race at Paul Short and has a ton of talent. He will be hungry to bounce back form leagues. In “who is that guy” news, Gabe Sullivan had a mammoth breakout at EPCs, taking a surprise 5^th overall. I did not see that coming from Sullivan, a Junior who was 30^th at Districts last year in just 18:02. After running roughly a minute faster on the same course this past weekend and considering he trains with the ultra-talented Slavin, this guy should be an interesting wild card on race day.

1. Parkland

2. Easton

3. Emmaus

1	Kevin	Lapsansky	Easton	Sr
2	Seth	Slavin	Pleasant Valley	Jr
3	Will	Aplaugh	Fredom	Sr
4	Dan	Quigley	Freedom	Sr
5	Dan	Kyvelos	Parkland	Sr
6	Michael	Geiger	Parkland	Jr
7	Gabe	Sullivan	Pleasant Valley	Jr
8	Teddy	Mostellar	Stroudsburg	Jr
9	Greg	Jaindl	Emmaus	Sr
10	Sam	Morgan	Parkland	So
11	Ryan	Paradise	Emmaus	Sr
12	Nicholas	Bower	Parkland	Fr
13	Sheamus	Hammerstone	Easton	So
14	Steven	Kaleycik	Parkland	Jr
15	Joseph	Ozgar	Easton	Fr
16	Matthew	Bianco	Parkland	Sr
17	Greg	Sherman	Easton	Sr
18	Raahi	Klar-Chaudhuri	Southern Lehigh	So
19	Matt	Bodon	Stroudsburg	So
20	Jonah	George	Liberty	Sr
21	Logan	Koch	Easton	Jr
22	Dan	Vierling	Emmaus	Jr
23	Riley	Williamson	Parkland	Fr
24	Thomas	Matsumara	Southern Lehigh	So
25	Morgan	O'Brien	Bangor	Fr