District One Mayhem

by Jarrett Felix

Ah District One. You never seem to disappoint do you? Year after year teams travel to Lehigh in hopes of grabbing a top five spot (for AAA) and punching their ticket to the dramatically different Hershey landscape. Those who survive the metaphorical (and I suppose every once in a while literal) blood bath have a nearly guaranteed place in the top 10 waiting for them at states (although I anticipate that advantage will shrink now that district three has moved its qualifying site). Those who miss out, are forced to watch (while likely holding a watch) and think to themselves "we could have beat them" about a few squads doing pre race strides. 

I thought this year would feature a pretty clear cut top five. I'm on record in the preseason and early season as saying my five were/are: DT West, CB West, Henderson, CB East and CR North. With a little work you can find a few of my quotes projecting this five as a "clear level about the rest " or "obvious qualifiers" or something else silly like that. 

I think on some level I was probably hoping we would have a clear cut Top 5 so that I wouldn't have to agonize over the fact that one of the state's best teams was leaving Lehigh with nothing more than a pat on the back. Maybe I didn't want to have to bring up my "meet of champs" idea for the 17th time. But regardless of why I thought it or what I want to happen, the fact of the matter is that when the dust settles at Lehigh in a few weeks time, we will have 5 very deserved state qualifiers and likely a slew of very deserved regular dudes. 

We know, of course, that those teams will not be decided on a blog (although that would be pretty sweet for me) and will be decided on the grass. But I mean how could I resist taking an early dive into analyzing the playoff picture. Especially when there are no team rankings coming out this week (biweekly cycle for those). 

For starters, it's important to recognize a few solid teams that I don't see as true contenders. All due respect, but I can't see Pennsbury, Phoenixville, West Chester East, William Tennent, etc. cracking the top five. I will say that I find the teams I've listed quite compelling stories. 

Pennsbury has gone from something of an afterthought in the district title race to a consistent year in and year out competitor (and their track prowess is now documented with some state golds). This was, for me, the big test year as Webb and Sauer have joined O'Connell and Harriman at (really good) colleges this fall leaving a "next generation" type test ahead of them with this year's squad. Kersten's addition has been huge in keeping this team in the mix and he gets better with every race. Bortman is quite strong at the #2 spot and has really been underrated on the trails in his career. Wick and Linares have each had nice moments in 2015 and you have to be intrigued by a young soph Aiden Sauer, who has a strong bloodline to his name. 9th at Pre States and 10th at Paul Short are nothing to sneeze at, especially as this team continues to find its identity and consistency. I'm not ready to pick them for a state spot (especially considering I had them in 2012 and 2014 when they missed out) but a four straight appearance in the top 7 of the always brutal district one would put them in very rare company.

West Chester East has gotten it's fair share of buzz this year on the site and not without reason. Rob Moser was one of the biggest break out stars and his recent sickness cost the team seriously in their most recent meet from a points stand point and possibly a leadership stand point as well. But East has still shown a solid pack, putting their 2-5 guys behind Moser at 17:05 or faster. Remember this team beat Bishop Shanahan (white race champions with 4 under 17) fairly handily this season and the program has won at state championship (2005), qualified for states (2005, 2006, 2012) and had a slew of top 50 finishers in the state over the last decade. Again, I'm not ready to slot them in my top five, but I could definitely see this squad doing something along the lines of 2014 West Chester Rustin and cracking the top 10 with potential for more if things break their way. Especially if Moser comes back with a vengeance for championship season. 

Phoenixville is a surprising upstart this year in what is becoming quite the impressive conference (Pac 10 has Methacton, Pottsgrove, Owen J and Spring Ford in house) and that's in large part due to studs Sean McGinnis and Dylan Smiley. I'm not sure they have the depth to sneak into the top five, but they deserve some mention for their strong start to the year. Mike Shaw, the team's #3 had a great day at Lehigh cracking 17 and the team's young sophomores held their own in a huge race, just a week after running the difficult Hershey course. If this team is AA (which I'm pretty sure it isn't but can't say for sure), that changes things (and makes AA literally unreal for 1 spot), but for now I'd rank them as a top 10 contender in D1.

William Tennent has been another fun program to root for in 2015. Sean Rahill is one of the best sophomores in the entire state and I think he could do some serious damage at districts this year. If he gets through to states, he's shown signs he can handle hills as well (Centaur was a great day for him). Evan Hutton has had a strong season as a junior leader and the team's 2. He went well under 17 at Paul Short as well. Dylan McHendry has the ability to run with him as well which could give this team a very underrated top 3. I like what I've seen from Matt Kraus in recent weeks as well, particularly at Briarwood. That's 4. Jake Ringer is improving as well, but he's going to need to drop some serious time to get this squad to contender status. For now, I'm enjoying the upstart WT squad and their ability to mix it up in smaller sections of invitationals. But can they handle the big stage at districts? That's the big question.

Which brings me to my Top 7 (appropriate for an XC conversation): CB East, CB West, CR North, DT West, Owen J Roberts, Spring Ford, and West Chester Henderson

It's a very fun group in my eyes. The two names that have dominated the D1 XC picture are, almost by default, once again on the list. That would be Henderson and CR North. Henderson has shown much more firepower thus far this season, including a run to the #2 spot for PA teams at Carlisle. They looked pretty strong, with Smucker doing a nice job leading the way and Reuther really coming into his own as a #2. Then they have depth. A surprising amount really considering last year's squad was lacking it. McSwain, Desmukh and Berkman were all top 7 men on last year's team and have added their experience to the mix in 2015. Downing and Weller are others who have jumped out from my scanning of results. Really, looking at the JV race at Carlisle, that was really the most surprising part (for me) of their run: they had a slew of capable runners on their bench. I feel confident this team can get back to states (although it won't necessarily be easy). I'm more interested to see how the pieces fit together for a run at the top five finish once they get there.

CR North is notorious for slow starts but also notorious for putting it all together on the line at Lehigh. They've pulled out the league title under some tight circumstances in the past and rallied for a state qualifying spot every year since I was a freshman in high school. Is a decade of excellence really about to come to an end? Thus far this year I'd say they have shown flashes of potential, but still have work to do in the final month to push their season an extra week. They lack a true medalist contender at states like they've had in the past, but Heintz and Haas have each shown they can be competitive near the front. Haas's run at Briarwood was really good and I thought the team had a good showing at PTXC and Viking. If no one steps up to crack the top 20 or so at districts (which might happen, but I think Heintz gets up there), they will need a big effort from their pack. Otherwise at least one of my predictions in my signature Bold Predictions post will be coming true in 2015.

In addition to these two established powerhouses, we have two growing powerhouses for the 2015 season: Kanye's favorite teams Downingtown and Central Bucks West. I put on "So Appalled" right now to get in the zone. 

But in all seriousness, these teams are both excellent and I currently have them ranked 1-2 in the state (although I've recently been considering revising that). CB West has a fantastic top five and no real weak links. They are experienced and they have solid depth that should be able to fill in if a rare off day occurs. DT West is absolutely loaded. They struggled a bit last year at districts, nearly losing out to CB East, but that race was sandwiched between a chesmont win and a 4th at states. This year's team is better, deeper and added the Hoeys. As long as they don't try and get too fancy at Lehigh, they will qualify for states with ease. I can say more about these squads, but I don't think the place to do it is in an already really long district one state qualifying picture article. 

The inspiration to even write this article in the first place comes from the two week stretch put together by Spring Ford and Owen J Roberts. In two of the biggest meets of the year, Foundation and Paul Short, these two squads earned top D1 team honors. That's nothing to overlook and it's an awesome achievement for a pair of teams that got little to no talk in the preseason. Owen J's run at Pre States featured victories over established big names like State College and O'Hara as well as rivals Spring Ford and potential state qualifiers CB East and Pennsbury. Of course Spring Ford was ready one week later to bounce back and beat Owen J in addition to D11 powerhouse Parkland and PTXC darlings Hershey. 

Both these teams employed fairly similar strategies to lock in their success. Both teams have a solid front runner (super soph Liam Conway and one of the best runners you have never heard of in John Conner). Both teams have #2 men who could likely qualify for states individually (Van Helmond did it last year and Smith is a very talented soph) then, when they had their best days, their top 5 had no clear weak links. When you look at the meets its scary how similar the winning strategies were. To make things more fun these teams are in the same conference and will have an epic duel at leagues right before districts!

Neither of these teams is a perennial powerhouse and neither has a particularly flashy roster, but both are clearly hardworking competitive gamers. They are a reminder that XC at its core is really about teams of five guys, a band of brothers and, when it all clicks, the results can be impressive. But the question is were these invites the best we will see from these teams? Or are these Cinderella stories just on Chapter One?

Which finally brings us to CB East. Why save this squad for last? Because the boys from East know better than anyone just how it feels to be on the outside looking in at the district one championships. Last year they were an agonizing 6th place, just a few spots at the 5 spot away from DT West and a trip to Hershey. Last year they were the hot team that surprised at Pre States, but, as Jake Brophy pointed out in an interview earlier this year, the team may have come out the gates too fast too early.

Now I'm not convinced this year's team is necessarily as good as last year's. Brophy scored 1 last year and he's not doing any better this time around (my early prediction is Brophy and Hoey duel to sub 15 at Lehigh, Hoey gets districts, Brophy gets states). I'm not sure that anyone on the roster can match what Connor Sands gave them last year as a top 50 finisher in the state. And this year's team has 3 freshmen (two of them named Sands) who will be in a high pressure situation at Lehigh in late October. 

But I still have a feeling that this team is going to pull it out. I just see a ton of upside for this squad. I could really see the freshman stepping in under Brophy's tutelage and making a leap. I think they can get a bit healthier as well and I'm banking on a well timed peak.

And ultimately, I circle back to the same thing. Motivation. District One is stacked. You need every edge you can get to survive. This team experienced heartbreak last fall and I'd bet anything the leaders of this squad think about that every day. 

So at the end of the day, here's my picks. 

DT West, CB West, Henderson, CB East, CR North. Yes, I'm sticking with my 5 preseason/early season picks. I can't help it. I have a tough time letting things go. I'm trusting in a few coaches, a few programs and ultimately, this is what feels right.

Of course, more often than not, I'm wrong. So keep that in mind.