Mid Penn Preview Part II ... Etrain couldn't resist

By Jarrett Felix

A year ago, Zach Seiger beat a fantastic field to take the league title on the Big Spring course. He's the top returner by a decent margin, however, injury rumors after his fall(s) at Carlisle have put doubt in our minds about whether or not he will toe the line to defend his crown.

That opens the door for a new winner this year and the man to beat may be Alex Milligan from State College. Milligan has yet to win a race this year after early silvers behind Kachman and an out of state runner Edwards on pseudo home turf at PSU, but he was a medalist at last year's state meet, the D6 champion and holds 1:53/4:17 PRs from the same day (also at states). The dude is clutch.

However, last time out Milligan wasn't even the #1 runner wearing a State College jersey as Junior Nick Feffer had a breakout race at Foundation to crack the top 10. He ran 1:54 last spring and has carried that momentum through to XC season. Milligan and Feffer were 6th and 20th respectively a year ago.

These two together give me confidence that State College can grab the team title. Last year they had arguably their best race of the season at this meet (helped by big days from Matt Beyerle and Owen Wing) and with a long lay off to stew from their disappointing showing at Pre States (they were 5th, but likely came in hoping to contend for the win), the motivation seems there to mix in with the talent and have a successful meet.

Although only two runners return from the top 10 (Milligan and Seiger), finishers 11-18 are all back this year (along with 20 through 23). Among that group is Colton Cassell and Kyler Shea, a pair of rising juniors from Lower Dauphin. These two, along with Sean Weidner, made up an extremely talented big 3 for LD and nearly carried the squad to states. Now with Weidner gone, the duo has groomed sophomore Jared Giannoscoli to take his place and once again Lower Dauphin will have three runners vying for a top 10 spot at Mid Penns/Districts. The front runner of this group is Kyler Shea who already impressed on this course in a 3rd place effort at Big Spring. He shortly followed that performance with a sub 16 run at Carlisle that really turned heads. I think Shea could win this race, following in the footsteps of guys like Groh and Nissley who were consistent contenders here. But it's also worth noting that Cassell actually beat Shea at this meet a year ago (I believe that was the last time Colton beat out Kyler). 

There are a variety of other runners who will be mixing it up with the lead pack, especially if Seiger isn't there to take things out hard. Matt Wisner and Isaac Kole from Carlisle are both having strong seasons and looked solid on the brutal Salesianum course. Carlisle times their peak excellently in 2014, allowing them to sneak through to states, so this may be the week things start to come together for them. It will start with Wisner (top 20 finisher a year ago) who is especially dangerous in a slower affair where he can use his impressive speed (like he did against Dan Filler at Enos).

Sophomore Morgan Cupp has placed extremely well at a pair of loaded invitationals in Carlisle and Paul Short and now sets his sights on his first championship race of the year. As a freshman, Cupp stood out as a real talent and, considering the typical freshman to sophomore jump and Cupp's strong start, he's a sleeper pick for a top 5 finish at this meet (maybe even top 3). His teammate Alex Tomasko is also very talented and could be a factor in this race. Mechanicsburg, who has missed Nicewicz this fall, will be an interesting team if they piece together a 4-5 behind Sulon.

Cumberland Valley and Hershey are two very intriguing teams. Although CV took the W at last year's meet, they haven't shown the same type of firepower in 15. Andrew Brown has led the way in many races, a surprising young sophomore having an excellent rookie season on varsity. Considering they also have Seeber, Higgins, and Soliman on the roster, all of whom placed in the top 20 last year, this team has the potential to win the race. We will see if everything comes together at the right moment for the program. 

Meanwhile, Hershey has been built much like their conference rivals this season and, similarly, could really use a breakout front runner to help their team score. Although they lost their two impressive low sticks from 2014, they have a couple guys in Geyer and D'Amico who had phenomenal races here last year. In fact, Hershey was arguably the breakthrough team of last year's championships. They finished 3rd, just 9 points back of SC. Let's see if they can recapture this magic this time around.

A couple individuals that I feel like don't get enough love are Jared Kearns and Sam Signor. Signor in particular has had a truly fantastic season. He's run top 5 at Big Valley, won the champions section at Carlisle and mixed it up with the top group in AA at Big Spring earlier this year. Filler and DiCintio are probably the front runners for the district title, but Signor gets to preview the course this week and hone his strategy for a possible upset at Districts. Kearns has fought valiantly in the front pack of his races this season, finishing as the #2 PA runner at Gettysburg and hanging in the top 10 or so at Big Spring's invite earlier this year. Plus his name is Jared so we are like practically related.

Another interesting subplot if you liked the AA talk (Kearns is AAA, Signor AA) keep an eye on Palmyra and Milton Hershey, both of whom have high hopes for their runs at this course at districts. The same goes for Trinity and Boiling Springs who are very strong teams with Bitner in particular have a stand out race at Carlisle for BS. And hey! Signor gets an extra mention, his East Pennsboro team is a strong AA squad as well that will be hunting these other programs.

But I've saved the most interesting sub plot of the meet (to me at least) for last. What will Camp Hill, the A squad with state championship potential, do in a field that includes some of the biggest AAA juggernauts in district (and state)? This squad won Gettysburg last weekend and came close to an upset over Winchester Thurston at Foundation already this year. And it seems like they are only getting better. Cooper Leslie has really found a rhythm on the trails, running as the team's #1 and Blake Behney (a top 15 finisher in 2014) has proven he can hang in this type of field before. Throw in Ian Gabig, who has developed impressively in 2015, and this top 3 is arguably just as good as any of the big schools in this field. Dan Shank has shown real promise at the 4 and if their 5 has a big day this team will be battling with the top 3. 

Predictions (assuming no Seiger)

1. Milligan

2. Shea

3. Feffer

4. Signor

5. Cupp

6. Kearns

7. Leslie

8. Wisner

9. Cassell

10. Giannoscoli 

Teams

1. State College

2. Lower Dauphin

3. Cumberland Valley

4. Hershey

5. Camp Hill

(Apologies to Chambersburg and Wurtz/Hayden who have had a strong year thus far and somehow didn't make it into this long preview.