District Week: District 2 Preview

by Jarrett Felix

So as mentioned, with district week approaching, I'll be giving my best shot to predict all the state qualifiers from all the districts and all the classifications. It's a tall order and I'm only five foot ten so you will have to cut me some slack on some of these predictions (I'll definitely take some big swings and misses), but hopefully this gives all the readers out there a chance to feel appreciated and analyzed. And it gives an opportunity for runners in other districts to get a little scouting report for the competition.

For those of you who may not know how state qualifying works, let me fill you in. Overall, I think we have a great system in place (if we had a meet of champs or maybe a few reserved at large selection spots that wouldn't be horrible, but we can't expect perfection). Each district sends a certain amount of teams based on their size. The district will also send a certain amount of individuals (5 individuals per team) to the state meet. These individual spots go to the runners who are not on the state qualifying teams (because they already have a spot, there is no double qualifying). These spots are decided purely based on your finish at districts, so you better bring your "A" game.

Also worth noting: if you have at least five individuals qualify through the individual qualifying spots but your team did not place well enough to earn a state qualifying spot, you may still compete at states as a team (but only with the guys who qualified as individuals). This is more commonly referred to as the LaSalle rule (by me and only me because I don't think anybody else cares enough to give it a name).

There's the intro, now let's get to the body.

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)
Matt Murray of Dunmore is the defending champion, absoultely dominating this field in 2014 en route to a top 10 finish at the A state meet. This guy is super talented and has proven himself a contender again in 2015 by placing near the top at Foundation and finishing 2nd to Hockenbury in some early season District 2 action. I think barring a far or an injury it's safe to bet Murray repeats.

I think the same is likely true for the boys from Elk Lake. The defending D2 champs have been strong again in 2015, placing 5th at the Foundation meet and showcasing a solid pack. They haven't had Dan Bell in action yet this year (he was one of their top guys a year ago), but Hunter Bedell, Cody Oswald and Seth Owens have still proven themselves as a nice trio to build around. Bedell in particular has had a breakout campaign as the senior leader. Oswald had a phenomenal race on the district stage last year as a freshman so he may be one of the best bets to knock off Murray if he has an off day.

Holy Cross, last year's runner up, looks to have another talented roster in 2015 with Nate Skrutski and Billy Legg in contention for top 5 spots in the district this year. Add in Jake McGovern and factor in Holy Cross's strong program history and their experience and I would think they grab the second team qualifying spot again this year. I'm honestly not sure who else is contending for this spot because many of these teams race very sparingly at the big invitationals so they aren't in my spotlight so to speak.

That made picking 10 individual qualifiers from outside these two teams very tricky indeed. Some names that stood out flipping through results for this year were Michael Mucciolo from Old Forge and Eamon Gibbons from Wyoming Seminary who both are hoping to punch a ticket to states for the first time. Keep an eye on some of Matt Murray's Dunmore teammates as possible sleepers for qualifying spots. They have some names on the rise who should learn a lot from Murray's leadership and success.

1. Elk Lake

2. Holy Cross

1	Matt	Murray	Dunmore	Sr
2	Hunter	Bedell	Elk Lake	Sr
3	Cody	Oswald	Elk Lake	So
4	Seth	Owens	Elk Lake	Jr
5	Nate	Skrutski	Holy Cross	Sr
6	Billy	Legg	Holy Cross	Sr
7	Michael	Mucciolo	Old Forge
8	William	Westgate	Forest City	Jr
9	Jake	McGovern	Holy Cross
10	Matt	Kinback	Lackawanna Trail	So
11	Eamon	Gibbons	Wyoming Seminary	Jr
12	Travis	Hickling	Blue Ridge	Fr
13	Neal	Albright	Forest City	Sr
14	Brett	Carney	Elk Lake
15	Hunter	Watkins	Elk Lake	Sr
16	Angel	Ortiz	Mid Valley	Jr
17	Josh	Wagner	Old Forge
18	John	Mandarano	Dunmore	Jr

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

I've got something to tell you guys that you may or may not already know. Dominic Hockenbury is really good. Like really good. He ran a blazing 15:30s time for 5k to beat Jack Zardecki (a really good runner from Dallas) by almost 90 seconds. And Hockenbury has been relatively unpushed by AA competition since his sophomore year track season (once Dominic Deluca moved back to AAA). Hock is the defending district champion and every time I think someone might be able to beat him or push him, he proves me wrong and runs away with the race.

BUT. I do think Matt Kravitz is having a phenomenal year this season, running an impressive race at Paul Short just a week after he had a huge breakthrough at the foundation course, running the same second half split as Hock. Kravitz went out hard in pursuit of Dominic last year at this meet and paid the price, slipping back to third. He's a lot strong this year, but so is Hockenbury so he has his work cut out for him. The way Kravitz has been running this year (rocking a conservative style in the early goings and coming on strong) implies to me he won't chase Dom this time around and try to jump him down the stretch at states if he gets complacent, using his excellent mile speed. But you never really know.

The recent Lackawanna Championship league meet that I was hoping would provide some clarity for me with respect to predictions proved to be just the opposite. A ton of the top runners were MIA including guys I have as potential state qualifiers like Toczko, Hoda, Culp, Sabol and more. Here's the thing, District 2 has a ton of individual talent (I think last year something like 7 of their 10 individual qualifiers earned medals, the highest percetange of any district including D1) and just 10 individual spots to pick from. That means things are going to be brutally close out there on the trails and some very quality names are going to be left at home. 

I think, assuming he's healthy, Toczko will be a real force in this race. He's been phenomenal on the trails the past two years and showed some real flashes of brilliance last year on the track (he was just overshadowed by the strong running of graduated teammate Jack Tidball). David Haines from North Pocono, a teammate of Kravitz, has also been excellent in 2015 but has been trapped in his teammates shadow. I think this guy could not only place top 5 in the district but maybe something like top 15 in the state. Super soph Jack Zardecki of likely state qualifying team Dallas also should be in the mix for the individual title. He struggled a bit on this course last year, but we know he can run big in the clutch based on his performance at states last year (top 50 finisher) and the major invitationals this year. His teammate's Borton and Culp have been excellent as well, especially considering their youth.

That Dallas team is heavy favorites to win the team title this year, assuring state spots to the aforementioned top three as well as strong #4 Josh Wyandt (another youngster) and up and coming #5 (freshman) Mitchell Rome. You might recognize the last name. Dallas as a program has been stellar and after overcoming their youth last year to grab a (to me at least) surprise state qualifying spot, I see no reason to doubt their ability to win the District.

With Scranton Prep graduating their entire scoring five (and 6 of their top 7) the door seems wide open for a surprise #2 team to come out of the district. But the question is, who is ready to usurp the throne? I've gone back and forth between a variety of teams as I'd say Berwick, Montrose and Holy Reedemer all have legit qualifying aspirations (and North Pocono could maybe sneak by if things break right with the pack behind their front running). Berwick has a very strong pack their last time out and held their own with a (not at full strength) Dallas squad. They have to prove they have the front running to survive the district, but, as we saw with Dallas last year (their #1 was 15th), teams can overcome that stuff if they have a pack. Also Berwick was 3rd last year, barely missing a qualifying birth. I'm sure they haven't erased the sting yet.

But Montrose and Holy Redeemer should provide strong push. I especially like Montrose's top three behind Owen Brewer, Bradon Curley and Zach Mead. I believe these three are all underclassmen as well. They can potentially place in the top 15 as individuals and, if the 4-5 round out the team well, they will be a tough squad to beat. Holy Redeemer will hopefully have front runner Aaron Hoda back in action along with super frosh Bryce Zapusek.

1. Dallas

2. Berwick

3.Montrose

4. Holy Redeemer

5. North Pocono

1	Dominic	Hockenbury	Lake Lehman	Sr
2	Matt	Kravitz	North Pocono	Sr
3	Jacob	Toczko	Tunkhannock	Sr
4	David	Haines	North Pocono	Jr
5	Jack	Zardecki	Dallas	So
6	Connor	Duffy	Valley View	Sr
7	Aaron	Hoda	Holy Redeemer	Jr
8	Adam	Borton	Dallas	So
9	Owen	Brewer	Montrose	Jr
10	Jason	Culp	Dallas	Jr
11	Franco	Balbuena	Coughlin	Sr
12	Jacob	Pasake	Western Wayne	So
13	Brandon	Curley	Montrose	So
14	Zach	Mead	Montrose	Jr
15	Bryce	Zapusek	Holy Redeemer	Fr
16	Mike	Arzie	Lakeland
17	Pat	Cosgrove	Scranton Prep	Sr
18	Ty	Fisher	Berwick	Jr
19	Chris	Sabol	Lake Lehman	Sr
20	AJ	Sluko	Scranton Prep	Jr

AAA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

This is a very interesting team and individual battle, mainly centering around Hazleton and Wallenpaupack in both cases. Wallenpaupack had been a fairly dominate force in District 2 AAA, but last year Hazleton turned the tables with a young up and coming squad, beating Wallenpaupack and Abington Heights for the Q. This year, Hazleton has really stretched their weeks, looking confident and ready to defend their title. However, I haven't seen perhaps their best runner and my early season pick for individual champion, sophomore Franklin Cunningham, in a couple weeks and the team was missing a few prominent pieces at their league meet as well. But Hazleton came together at the perfect time last year, Matt Houser is back and running well and they picked up a nice addition to Varsity in Alex Elchisak. So I could still see this team pulling out a W.

That being said Wallenpaupack looks hungry for revenge and is once again sporting a strong pack. Led by Jake Wacker and Thomas Johnson, this crew looked strong at Paul Short and Wacker really killed it with a 16:37ish type performance earlier this fall. The question will be, can Wallenpaupack's WallenpauPACK keep tight or in front of the 3-4-5 from Hazleton. I think Hazleton has better front running on paper, but Wall has the better pack on paper. But, of course, they don't run races based on what's printed online.

Individually, as mentioned my early season pick Cunningham has been MIA recently. I really liked what I saw from him in the beginning of the fall, running a great race at Spiked Shoe and some September Lackawanna meets. However, if he is not ready to go on race day, defending champ Andrew Lopez of Scranton will be waiting to take gold. Of course, he won't be alone. Hazleton teammate Matt Houser was 3rd last year and ran very well in last week's league championship. Eric Kolvek of Wallenpauck is arguably his team's #3 runner this fall, but he was 3rd here last year, meaning any of the squad's top guys could grab Gold. 

Keep an eye on the duo from Williamsport Area: Tyler Holcomb and Haymre Cannon. Holcomb is just a sophomore, but he was phenomenal at the Pre State meet in September. Cannon has also shown some real talent this season in the early season meets. I think Holcomb is a sleeper pick for the title if things break right which would be a huge breakthrough from the Williamsport team. Stay tuned.

1. Hazleton

2. Wallenpaupack

1	Franklin	Cunningham	Hazleton	So
2	Andrew	Lopez	Scranton	Sr
3	Jake	Wacker	Wallenpaupack	Sr
4	Tyler	Holcomb	Williamsport Area	So
5	Matt	Hauser	Hazleton	Sr
6	Thomas	Johnson	Wallenpaupack	So
7	Jacob	Kobusky	Wyoming Valley West	So
8	Eric	Kolvek	Wallenpaupack	Sr
9	Haymre	Cannon	Williamsport Area	Sr
10	Alexander	Elchisak	Hazleton	Sr