District Week: District 3 Preview

By Jarrett Felix

Camp Hill is a legitimate state title hopeful and they will look to show their stuff this weekend in the aftermath of the Winchester Thurston upset at WPIALs. Camp Hill can make a huge statement by grabbing gold and putting their top 5 in the top 10 or so. I'll be watching the 4-5 spot curiously in preparation for my state picks. Tulpehocken has had a nice season and deserves some recognition here in team discussions, but Camp Hill is going to be very hard to topple, especially in such a small meet.

Individually, I'm excited for the duel projected between Will Greene of Delone Catholic and Cooper Leslie of Camp Hill. Both guys are in contention for top 10 spots at states and the duo has found themselves basically side by side in all the big invites this year. Greene probably has a slight edge based on his resume this season, but Leslie boasts a strong track resume that could favor him in a race like this where Greene will either have to lead or risk being out kicked. Ian Gabig and Blake Behney will also be in the hunt for individual gold as the remaining members of the CH trio have been rolling this year, just behind Leslie.

Further down the line, watch for Morgan Morrison and Mason Klopp to be among the individual qualifiers. Morrison ran excellent at districts a year ago and similarly excelled at the Big Spring invite earlier this fall. He's also making the sophomore-junior jump this season which could help him make a jump in the standings.

Camp Hill

Tulpehocken

1	Cooper	Leslie	Camp Hill	Senior
2	William	Greene	Delone Catholic	Junior
3	Blake	Beheny	Camp Hill	Senior
4	Ian	Gabig	Camp Hill	Junior
5	Morgan	Morrison	West Shore Christian	Junior
6	Mason	Klopp	Tulpehocken	Senior
7	Caleb	Sneller	Dayspring Christian	Junior
8	Dan	Shank	Camp Hill	Junior
9	Jacob	Cox	Tulpehocken	Sophomore
10	Evan	Schlusser	York Catholic	Sophomore
11	Tanner	Schalter	Tulpehocken	Junior
12	Matt	Little	Camp Hill	Sophomore

In AA, the defending champions, York Suburban, are waiting patiently for a chance to defend their state gold. The first steps will be taken at Big Spring, as YS will hope to throw down fast marks behind Donovan Mears and, ideally, bolster their positioning out front and at the 5 spot. Jarrett Raudensky, just a freshman with a killer first name, ran exceptionally well at YIAA and if he keeps on this progression be may end up top 5-7 in the district. At the very least, his break out should push Bryce Ohl and Pete Wagner to chase a top spot, rounding out a crazy good top 4.

After YS, things get a bit more crazy. Ok fine, a lot more crazy. I think Milton Hershey is built to do well at this meet. They looked solid at Mid Penns and have a pair of strong front runners, led by Nate Frierson. On multiple occasions now they have excelled on Big Spring's lay out. But there will be plenty of teams ready to pounce on even a small mistake. East Pennsboro has one of top contenders in the entire district in Sam Signor plus an underrated 2-3 in Brighton and Mundis. They have been a bit more shaky in the 4-5 spots and in a big meet on a big stage with young runners, that's a precarious spot. 

Boiling Springs and Palmyra have each shown flashes of potential this fall. Palmyra made states a year ago and finished within a point of East Penns at Carlisle, but without front runner Cole at Mid Penns the team struggled. If Cole comes back, they could jump right into the mix for the final qualifying spot. 

There's also Trinity, a proven, consistent program with few weak links and decent front running of their own in Drawbaugh and Geisler. Although those two likely will be behind Signor, Bitner and other squads #1, in a meet like districts that gap won't mean as much as a big invitational with AAA talent injected into the equation. Will Bucher and Vincent Pham can really swing this race in the team's favor with top 30 finishes.

And then there is Wyomissing. Last year I completely wrote this team off headed into districts and they made me pay. I thought they would be doing too much doubling to win the 4x8 outdoors and they made me pay. Now, after a slowish start, Wyomissing is starting to climb right back into the mix. Just in time to make states after I pick against them. DiCintio is the best talent out of any of the contending teams after a sub 16 at Hershey and a 2nd place finish at states last year so he's an excellent low stick. Joe Cullen has had significant improvements in his sophomore XC campaign (and he was pretty good as a freshman) plus Matt Driben has emerged as a very strong #3. If the rest of their pack steps up, this team will get it done again and I'll be eating my words, but for now I've got them just missing.

Individually, I've already mentioned many of the top contenders peppered within my team predictions, but the guy I didn't may also be the districts best. That would be Dan Filler of Gettysburg who won at Big Spring earlier this year and ran 16:00ish at Carlisle. I believe Filler is undefeated against AA competition this year and it's worth noting that he beat DiCintio at districts last year after Jack took off at a blazing pace on the Hershey lay out. This should be an interesting race dynamic to see if Filler can hawk DiCintio down again or if DiC will change his tactics to better utilize his sub 2 minute 800m speed.

I've got a couple sleeper contenders, most notably Carl Fortna of Fleetwood and Jared Harnish of ELCO. Harnish seems to be a prime time performer and has made big strides forward in 2015. Fortna is coming off a strong showing at Berks where he was right in the front pack of a strong AAA/AA field.

York Suburban	Milton Hershey	East Pennsboro	Wyomissing
Trinity	Boiling Springs	Palmyra

1	Dan	Filler	Gettysburg	Senior
2	Jack	DiCintio	Wyomissing	Senior
3	Sam	Signor	East Pennsboro	Senior
4	Donovan	Mears	York Suburban	Senior
5	Zach	Bitner	Boiling Springs	Senior
6	Jared	Harnish	Eastern Lebanon County	Senior
7	Bryce	Ohl	York Suburban	Sophomore
8	Jarrett	Raudensky	York Suburban	Freshman
9	Peter	Wagner	York Suburban	Junior
10	Nathan	Frierson	Milton Hershey	Senior
11	Carl	Fortna	Fleetwood	Senior
12	Joe	Cullen	Wyomissing	Sophomore
13	Ben	Reisenweaver	Schuylkill Valley	Sophomore
14	Connor	Schroll	Western York	Senior
15	Matt	Driben	Wyomissing	Sophomore
16	Daniel	Wood	Biglerville	Senior
17	Chase	Drawbaugh	Trinity	Senior
18	Ben	Stutzman	Lancaster Mennonite	Senior
19	Kevin	Cole	Palmyra	Senior
20	Joe	McDonnell	Susquehannock	Senior
21	Chad	Long	Bermudian Springs	Sophomore
22	Tyler	Brighton	East Pennsboro	Senior
23	Zachary	Miller	Donegal	Senior
24	Scott	Mundis	East Pennsboro	Senior
25	Terryl	Ferrell	Milton Hershey	Senior

In case you didn't listen to the podcast, I'll just say it here. The AAA team race is mayhem. I've got Hempfield advancing and I think they will be in the mix for a top 5 team spot (which is going to be incredibly hard this year if you scan all the teams). They have had almost no hiccups since they won the title last year and their guys are peaking at the right time yet again. There is a little drop off to the 5 spot, but there are also 3-4 runners who will be pushing each other, so there won't be a big drop off. Their 8 is good enough that even the #7 guy will be running scared of his losing his spot the next week a states. That's a good sign. 

Hershey is arguably the best story of 2015 in the team discussion. They were a decent team last year who ultimately struggled at districts and ended up missing states. They graduated their top 5 guys from districts including the only 2 that were legit state qualifying contenders and now, a year later, they have rebuilt the squad incredibly and find themselves as a lovable underdog with a great pack and a talented freshman hoping to spring the upset on Hempfield. I think on their best day, their pack just rolls through the course and stuns for gold. But I also think on an off day, this team could end up lacking the front running power to survive the metaphorical stampede of teams waiting in the wings, hoping for a state spot.

I'm probably missing someone, but I see all these teams with at least reasonable state qualifying aspirations: Carlisle, Cumberland Valley, Cedar Crest, Chambersburg, Lower Dauphin, Penn Manor, Twin Valley and Wilson. Oh my goodness. That's not even counting squads like Mechanicsburg, Governor Mifflin and Ephrata who have solid squads of their own. 

Keep in mind Cedar Crest ran a great race at Big Spring earlier this year, but they have since been bested by CV and Penn Manor at Paul Short and LLs. But CV has been beat by teams like Lower Dauphin but of course a varsity of teams have beaten Lower Dauphin. It's just a viscous cycle and trying to figure out where it starts and ends is beyond me.

Here's what I know. Cumberland Valley and Carlisle have seemed to find a formula for qualifying for states in recent years. Especially CV who has been more or less the CRN of D3, qualifying every year regardless of roster. And this year's team has a ton of talent so it's hard to imagine they won't find a way to get back yet again. But they've been close with a variety of squads each race this year so they really need to have a good day.

I also know Lower Dauphin's top 3 is amazingly good. I think Shea may end up 2nd in this race coming up and Cassell and Giannoscoli could definitely end up in the top 10. But they did that last year and still ended up a couple points short!

And what about Wilson? This team looked really good at Berks, especially behind Underwood at the front, but they have questions of their own in the depth department as Twin Valley managed to stuff 7 in front of their 5.

And is Penn Manor good? I think so but they haven't gone to a big invitational and tried hard, at least not one that I found. They looked solid at LLs, but they also could get jumped by a couple teams including JP McCaskey (my deep sleeper in the team race) if things don't pan out through 5 guys. But the thing is, I just don't have enough data points to judge. I'm mainly going off posts in the only penntrack forum that people post in.

I just don't know what to do! Who do I pick? So I basically drew straws and ended up betting on Lower Dauphin's 4-5 stepping up and Cumby doing what they do and advancing. We'll see if I end up guessing right.

Individually, I feel pretty confident getting behind Nate Henderson at the front. With Seiger out of action at Mid Penns and possibly not racing this weekend, Henderson is the clear favorite. I see Shea and Lefever, also Juniors, as the main competitors based on their strong resumes this year. But Matt Wisner is lurking. He won Mid Penns over Shea and looked phenomenal, completely transformed from the Carlisle invitational. Was Mid Penns just a fluke and in a faster, Henderson paced race he will fall back? I'm not sure, but I do know his team at leagues was quite quick and if I'm another runner I don't want to look over my shoulder and see this kid with 400m to go. 

Justin Yurchak has been consistently solid as Hempfield's #1 and, perhaps because of the strength of his team, has been underrated in title talks. I'm not saying he will win Saturday, but I do think he should have legitimate top 5 aspirations. I also really like Morgan Cupp as a potential break out performer. He ran with a ton of heart and guts at Mid Penn, leading some of the race, and I'd imagine the sophomore will benefit from adding Henderson and other front runners to the mix. 

Deeper on the sleeper lists, I think Patrick Jacobson could have a big race for Dallas. I'm also quite high on Josiah Mansell from Governor Mifflin. Mifflin has a knack for coming to play at districts and I'd bet Mansell is the next in line for a strong showing.

Hempfield	Hershey	Cumberland Valley	Lower Dauphin
Carlisle	Penn Manor	Wilson	Chambersburg

1	Nathan	Henderson	JP McCaskey	Junior
2	Kyler	Shea	Lower Dauphin	Junior
3	Zach	Lefever	Ephrata	Junior
4	Justin	Yurchak	Hempfield	Senior
5	Morgan	Cupp	Mechanicsburg	Sophomore
6	Matt	Wisner	Carlisle	Senior
7	Jared	Kearns	Northern	Senior
8	Nate	Becker	Ephrata	Senior
9	Zach	Seiger	Red Land	Senior
10	Coby	Mattes	Hempfield	Junior
11	Colton	Cassell	Lower Dauphin	Junior
12	Joel	Burkholder	Penn Manor	Senior
13	Brian	Delaney	Manheim Township	Senior
14	Jared	Giannoscoli	Lower Dauphin	Sophomore
15	Mike	Morris	Hershey	Freshman
16	Nick	Norton	Hempfield	Junior
17	Alex	Tomasko	Mechanicsburg	Junior
18	Isaac	Kole	Carlisle	Junior
19	Rhett	Hart	Ephrata	Senior
20	Alex	Hayden	Chambersburg	Senior
21	Jacob	Underwood	Wilson	Sophomore
22	Andrew	Brown	Cumberland Valley	Sophomore
23	Josiah	Mansell	Governor Mifflin	Junior
24	Jesse	Cruise	Cedar Crest	Junior
25	Chris	Wurtz	Chambersburg	Senior
26	Sam	Mancuso	Garden Spot	Senior
27	Patrick	Jacobson	Dallastown	Junior
28	Doug	Kramer	Penn Manor	Junior
29	Evan	Kreider	Cocalico	Freshman
30	Peter	D'Amico	Hershey	Senior
31	Owen	Seeber	Cumberland Valley	Senior
32	Cole	Sunderland	Manheim Central	Junior
33	Grant	Geyer	Hershey	Junior
34	Joey	White	Hempfield	Senior
35	Andrew	Sulon	Mechanicsburg	Junior