Manhattan Preview

By Jarrett Felix

It's always fun to see how PA's top teams stack up against the best from the other states. But I won't sit here and pretend that I actually know anything about how good those other teams are. So this will be a strictly PA preview. 

Based on my understanding, here are the PA squads entered in this weekends Manhattan Invitational:

Conestoga, Del Val, DT West, GA, GFS, LaSalle, Roman Catholic, South Western, Taylor Allerdice, Upper Dublin

The most interesting story line will undoubtedly be Downingtown West. Just all things Downingtown West. There are so many layers to this. For starters, they are the consensus best team in the state with 3 of the top 10-15 runners in the state on their team (and possible the #1 overall and #1 soph). This is a team who's end goal is NXN and so every out of state battle is especially important. In addition, Chesmonts is this coming Monday (i.e. two days later) and West is the favorites there to repeat. But do they care? Their top 7 (and only their top 7) are entered in this meet meaning they are at the very least keeping guys like Blair and Alsansky fresh for a likely varsity run at leagues. After that who the heck knows who will be in the lineup at Chesmonts and how hard they will be running. They are definitely going all out at Manhattan, otherwise they wouldn't enter, so we will see what that kind of effort means for Chesmonts.

And here's what I like the most about this: DT West gets to face off with LaSalle! LaSalle upset Conestoga at this meet last year and also beat O'Hara at districts (i.e. two of the top 3 teams in the state) so this would seem to be the moment in the season where they start to hit their stride. I seriously doubt LaSalle can pull of the upset against West, but here's what's cool. LaSalle faced CB West at Briarwood, NA at Pre States and now DT West at Manhattan. They are the only team to face all three of my top three squads (who have yet face one another) and this is my best data point for comparing all the squads. LaSalle has a full squad entered and if their pack has a good day, they can make noise in this race. I'll be interested to see how Addison and Grant bounce back to fit in with Paul, Goebel and Price for a potentially dynamite top five. 

The most compelling team to me is the mystery that is Germantown Friends. This is a fantastic program and very well coached squad, but I've definitely been lower on these guys than most and have been reluctant to throw them in my top 10. I think Dahl is an absolute monster (and hopefully drops a killer 4K this week, I feel like he can really excel at this distance), but I'm still on the fence about their pack. They showed some positive signs at their last invite on PA soil and I think Hepp could have a nice day, but are they on LaSalle's level? Anywhere near DT West? The early signs are that GFS will have a cake walk at Independents, so this team has no reason to peak any earlier than Thanksgiving so anything close to these top 5 squads would be an excellent run at this stage in the game. 

Let's talk individuals. There's some sneaky picks for individual potential in some of the smaller races. PJ Murray is a very solid runner from Conestoga who will look to back up a solid run at Paul Short. District One will be loaded as always and Murray knows very strong run can really help build his confidence headed into that meet. Both Allerdice boys, Davis and Diallo, are really good runners. And heck, that team is pretty solid. District 8 gets little love, but this year's Allerdice team has been quite fun to watch. The Ritz bros are racing here! How will Owen and Dan do returning to the same course where Sam Ritz beat Andrew Marston for top Pa honors. Owen has made some nice improvements this season and I'm interested to see freshman Dan show his potential. Sean Brown from Roman Catholic is a real solid runner out of the PCL. And of course there's my alma mater Upper Dublin who needs to make a few more strides forward to compete in the SOL American. Hannon has been their #1 this year and is a deep sleeper for individual state qualifying in D1, but the UD squad has some work to do to catch Cheltenham.

But the battle for top individual battle will likely come down to the DTW trio and Nick Dahl (with a small shout to Ryan Barton, who is an awesome runner and somehow has found himself in the shadows in my posts, just want to apologize for that considering he's a killer 4 man). Jaxson Hoey won at Carlisle and looked very strong. He's got great speed over the mile distance which could play a role in a shorter 4K race. My understanding is this course is a bit more difficult than Carlisle/Lehigh, etc. so this will be a nice test case for Hershey. 

Dahl, much like Hoey, had a long successful spring, breaking 9 minutes for 3200m equivalent as a sophomore last year. Dahl has excellently times his peak for nationals the last two seasons on the track, but his XC credentials have not been equivalent in his first two years. They've been really good, but Dahl on the track is really, really, (really) good. However, this year Dahl has shown signs of brilliance on the trails. Now in his Junior year, I believe he is undefeated after winning in Bowdoin Park. Now, back in NY, I just get a feeling he's going to have a big weekend.

Henry Sappey and Josh Hoey are likely a level below these two, but they are still really good. Sappey might be the best pure XC guy of the entire group. He's a tough runner and he's very solid on true XC courses as opposed to pancakes. I think he had a solid day at Carlisle, but there is more potential there. I think this could potentially be a nice breakthrough for him. The Hoeys have to be a nice motivator in races to push him in a different way than he was pushed last year by his teammates (although he doesn't have Alex Knapp who was a perfect competitor for him last fall).

I think Josh Hoey is sitting on a big breakthrough as well. The dude ran quite well at Carlisle, beating one of my personal favorites for this season in Nate Henderson. And honestly, I got the vibe he was disappointed with his race and the fact he couldn't quite hang on to his brother. I could see this developing into a Ben-Sam Ritz situation and they bring out the best in one another to the point where Josh has a jaw dropping run. Now all that being said, he has had his fair share of pacing problems in a variety of races in XC, so hopefully that won't be an issue here. After seeing his poise on the track, I'm not too concerned about this. 

I think DT West runs away with this one and it will be fun to compare them to some of those Henderson teams that have run this race and won states and qualified for nationals. I probably should have looked up those times before writing this, but hey in the recap I'll be sure to include them. 

I say LaSalle over GFS for #2 PA honors and Jax Hoey and Josh Hoey over Dahl for my top 3 PA dudes (Sappey at PA #4).

Chesmont preview still to come I promise, but for now stay classy and enjoy the fact that for once I'm closer to the action than the people who live in PA.