2018 State Previews: AAA 3200m

AAA 3200m

The Stage

Here we go. I have no idea what order any of you guys read these in (or in what order I will post them up), but in terms of the order I wrote these bad boys in, this was my last one. I’m going to try not to cry as I set the stage for the last state championship preview I’ll ever write for my blog. Hopefully I’ve saved the best for last.

The biggest story in this race has to be Neshaminy’s Rusty Kujdych. As a senior, Kujdych has been nothing short of incredible on the track. He won a state championship in cross country, posting together an impeccable record against the best competition in the area and qualifying for the Footlocker Finals. During indoors, Kujdych smashed his previous best in the mile and rolled to a state championship in the 3k with one of the largest margins of victory we’ve seen. Now, much like Justified, he’s one leg away from the Triple Crown.

We haven’t seen a Triple Crown winner since Jason Weller (not to be confused with Jayson Miller) pulled off the feat in 2006-2007. We haven’t seen a AAA XC State Champ win an outdoor state gold since 2009 (Jimmy Tarsnane) and the last three XC state champs have finished no better than 8^th in the 3200. So Kujdych is fighting an uphill battle.

The good news is that last year Nate Henderson came pretty close to that Triple Crown. He won the second two legs (a combo that hadn’t been completed since Weller) and was second in XC. If not for the arrival of all-time great Noah Affolder, the Triple Crown would have been his. But there’s bad news too and that bad news is Noah Beveridge. The Butler senior has been waiting patiently for his first state championship and after leaving the last two dances with silver, he’s hungry for gold. Beveridge has run 4:12 and 9:09 this outdoors and likely contributed an impressive 4x8 split to the Butler relay (he flashed 1:54 speed last year on at least one split).

For whatever reason, the Kujdych-Beveridge match-up reminds me of a 2014 match-up between Tony Russell and Ross Wilson. In that race, Russell was going for his own triple crown of sorts: he had won the XC state title and the indoor mile meaning a 32 gold would give him three. Wilson had been consistently topped by Russell, but on that final lap, Ross found another gear and dug deep to finally knock off Tony in their last head to head contest. In the process, Ross clocked an 8:56 to break a long standing state record that seemed like it would never be broken (ironically, Ross’s record was broken a year later). Maybe Beveridge can find that Ross Wilson-esque gear and bring home the gold. Either that or Kujdych goes Secretariat on everybody.

Or, I suppose, neither of those could happen.

The Race

Believe it or not, there are other people in this race besides the pair I’ve just droned on about for a few precious final paragraphs. Interestingly, if you look at the performance list, you can see a lot of guys with times closely packed together near these top two. District One has a couple great runners from great programs in Spencer Smucker and Ryan Campbell. Those guys sit at #3 and #4 in the seedings and are on the short list of sub 9:20 guys. Campbell is rounding back in to form at the perfect time, dropping a big season’s best at districts and indicating he can be in the conversation for ore in Shippensburg. Meanwhile, Smucker has found good success in his new event and was the closest runner to Kujdych at the Henderson Invite 3200 earlier this month.

Dan McGoey of North Allegheny deserves a mention. The sophomore established himself as a prime time performer at this past fall’s state championships. It was here that McGoey took third overall, behind just Kujdych and Beveridge, and nearly even took down the reigning WPIAL champ in the final straight. It marked the third straight year a sophomore placed in the top 3 in the AAA state championship (a previously absurd concept by the way). The last two guys? Sam Affolder (2^nd in the 3200, 2^nd in the 1600) and Josh Hoey (3^rd in the 1600). McGoey hasn’t shown quite the same speed that these two have (they were 4:10ish milers), but it’s not crazy to speculate he could place in the top 3 at another state championship this spring like these two did.

McGoey is joined in the top 10 seeds by classmates Christian Fitch (Fox Chapel), Cole Walker (Unionville) and Zach Leachman (Mars). None of these three have hopped on the medal stand just yet, but they all have a chance at bling in this race. I particularly like Fitch’s odds as he has been an incredibly consistent presence in the long distance events recently which is impressive for such a young talent.

Oh, by the way, the AA XC State Champ is in this race. People may not realize (he’s seeded 23^rd), but Isaac Davis of Jersey Shore is in this field and you can bet he’s going to try and pull off the upset. Davis has had by far his best season on the track which comes fresh on the heels of a monster XC campaign. I don’t think people quite realize how good Davis was during XC, particularly his 15:56 time at states (which came with a massive margin of victory). He’s beaten Brendan Miller this year and has clocked 9:24 for 3200. I could see him dropping a big PR.

The District 3 champ, Andrew Foster, has scratched this event to focus on the 4x8. That opens the door for Mechanicsburg senior Morgan Cupp. Cupp was a stud during XC and has had some nice flashes of brilliance on the track as well. The loss to Foster last week should act as some extra motivation heading into the state meet, but he will need to get past that 9:30 barrier which has been blocking his path to date. Ian Miller of Manheim Township, an indoor state medalist at 3k, seems like a potential sleeper from that district as well.

Some other quick hits: I’m in Nate Price’s corner. I think the General McLane junior would be in the state title talks if he was in AA (like he is for XC). This race may be a bit too quick for him, but I think the last medal spots are wide open. Carlisle has three guys in this race and LaSalle has two. I never count out those programs at the state championships. The District 11 guys sitting at #11 and #12 are good value picks in prediction contests as well. The District has more than held its own in AAA the best few seasons, most notably seeing Colin Abert nearly win a state championship in 2015 (to bring things full circle, Abert would have been under Ross Wilson’s state record, but Zach Brehm beat him to it with an 8:55.60).

OK, for the last time, here are my picks:

8. Jacob McKenna 9:24.00

7. Ryan Campbell 9:22.31

6. Morgan Cupp 9:21.70

5. Spencer Smucker 9:19.48

4. Dan McGoey 9:19.45

3. Isaac Davis 9:12.99

2. Rusty Kujdych 9:04.88

1. Noah Beveridge 9:04.25