NXN Regional Preview

Hey everyone! Nice to be back writing a brief piece for you all. I’ll just jump into it: today I will be trying to explain the NXN qualifying situation and where CR North fits into the equation. Also, just how good are other teams in the Northeast Region?

I have an excel document on all of the statistics mentioned here, so if you send me an e-mail at forrest47.kentwell93@gmail.com I will send you what I have compiled. 

There are two main ways of figuring out team rankings. The first is through flotrack’s ratings (sponsored by saucony), which is based out of the west. The second is www.tullyrunners.com, which is based out of New York. I really like Tully’s system of ‘speed ratings,’ because of the various factors he takes into account (there is a video with him on flotrack explaining this I would recommend researching). I will be using both of these systems throughout the post. 

How to make Nationals?

Very simply if you are top 2 in your region you automatically go to nationals. After that there are 8 “at-large” bids given out to teams who placed 3rd or 4th in their region (there are 8 regions, so some regions will get 2 at-large teams and other regions will give no at-large bids). How these at-large bids are given is always difficult to determine, but it seems that part of it is based on the flotrack rankings, which is why they will become so important. I will speak on these at-large bids and national rankings a bit later. 

PA History (2012-2015)

I want to start with a brief overview of the last few years for PA at the Nike Northeast regional meet. As you may have realized, the PA state meet is 4 weeks before the regional meet, while the New England Championships is two weeks before and the New Jersey Meet of Champions is the week before. This allows all the other teams from the Northeast to peak going into the regional meet, while PA teams are left to take a break and re-peak. This is a very difficult task for the PA runners and results are extremely variable in this meet. 2012 was by far the best year for PA consistency with each runner from WCH and O’Hara (other than Pitone) running equally as well if not much better at Regionals than they did at States. Some big improvements came from Barchet (178.7 at states to 192.4 at regionals; Knapp: 170 to 178.7; and Belfatto: 171.7 to 178). These jumps of 4-7 speed-rating points are a change of 12 to 21 seconds, which is pretty impressive. Both of these teams made nationals: O’Hara placed second and received an auto-bid, while Henderson (5 points behind) on the at-large bid. 

The next year Barchet had a much more difficult race as did Smart. Collins stepped up for Henderson as did Morro (5 points better) for O’Hara. It seems here that their 4-5 runners made some big improvements (although Waltz was Henderson’s 6th man after being 4th at states, but their depth kept them in it). In 2014 McGoey and Wharrey after killer races at the state meet lost 5 speed-rating points at regionals. Seel improved, but Stupak and Deible also struggled (lost 5.5 and 3 points respectively). NA did not end up making nationals.  Finally, last season the state champs DT West saw Sappy run basically the same race, with improvements from Josh and difficulties from Jaxson(189 at states to 179 at regionals). Ryherd and O’Neill seemed to switch places in terms of score. They ended up winning the region and heading to nationals quite handily. 

So, the larger point is that it’s going to be very, very hard to predict just how CR North will run. Who will improve? Who will have a really poor race? But before we get to these questions here is how CR North’s speed-ratings from the state meet match up with the past regional races:

2012: Total Score - 163 (4th Place). I would say they would not have gotten the auto-bid, but this was the year when O’Hara placed 5th at nationals (had 90 points at this meet), so there is a small chance the directors would have recognized how strong the region was this year, but shout out to O’Hara and Henderson for an amazing year for PA.

2013: Total Score – 145 (3rd Place: 6 points ahead of 4th). CR North in this race would have been 31 points behind the second place team and I’m not sure they would have gotten the at-large-bid because the region was a bit weaker this year out front. 

2014: Total Score – 143 (3rd Place: 41 points behind second). LaSalle (CT) had an amazing team this year and I think CR North would have gotten the at large bid behind another strong CBA team who was in second.

2015: Total Score – 121 (2nd Place: 19 Ahead of last years second). Last year was a bit of a weak year for the northeast with LaSalle and CBA graduating so many runners. DT West was probably a top 15 team in the nation and North would have gotten the auto-bid in second place behind them. 

Overall, based on their states rankings it seems like CR North is about a 3rd place team out of the Northeast region on just about any year. The question is, how do they stack up against other Northeast teams this year?

The Setting: How the Northeast Looks

This year it is pretty clear that CBA is by far and away the best team in the Northeast region and I have no doubt they will win quite handily. They have several runners who will be hovering between SR of 177 and 180 with a decent front runner in Hill and experience and depth at the backend of the squad. If they ran at PA states they would have scored 55 points placing 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th, and 20th in team points. After CBA there are two other NJ teams and a squad from New England to worry about.

At the New England Championships (NEC) Staples TC had an absolutely fantastic day to take the win in 115 points. They have a strong front-runner in Ahmad (186.73 @NEC’s and 185 at Connecticut States) who matches up fairly well with Campbell (184.67 at states). Behind him they saw some great runs from their 2-5 guys:
Seiple: 177.54 @ NEC; 173.33 @ States
Landowne: 175 @ NEC; 171.67 @ States

Green: 174.43 @ NEC; 173.67 @ States

Myers: 171.20 @ NEC; 166.33 @ States

Their 5th man Myers really made the difference here taking loads of points off this team. If CR North had run in the New England Championships (NEC) with their exact rankings from the state meet then they would have scored 124 points, just 9 points shy of Staples. However, if Staples had run their rankings from the Connecticut State championships CR North would have easily handled them by about 20 points. Which Staples team will we see at Regionals? The one from NEC or States? They were clearly peaking more for NEC’s than their state meet, which shows me that they are truly gearing up for a strong regional race, and I would guess they race similar to how they ran at NEC’s.

The NJ Meet of Champions was this weekend. Before I dive in, can I just quickly say say: why don’t we have one of these yet for PA?!? Moving on: CBA was dethroned placing not second, but 3rd!

Princeton: 104 Points

Colts Neck: 106 Points

CBA: 109

CR North from states rankings 110 Points. 

This is extremely close, but what I want everyone to keep in mind is that CR North has NOT raced in 3 weeks. These teams are peaking for NJ Champs and regionals and have had 3 weeks to train to boost their times/ratings. Teams like Princton and Colts Neck have very, very strong front 3s that dwarf CR North, but Koza is the best 5th man around other than CBA. And from CBA Kilcolley and Miele ran very poorly (both have run 177’s before this season) and I would expect them to bounce back. If Princeton or Colts Neck has an inspired 5th man at regionals who moves up about 5 speed-rating points they will be an absolute lock. 

Lastly, the Massachusetts State Championships.

Wellesley: 76 Points

Lowell: 82 Points
CR North (state scores): 84 Points

Once again, we see CR North coming very tightly behind several strong teams. Lowell has a brilliant front 2, but Wellesley’s pack kept them in it (5 runners above 173). Wellesley reminds me quite a bit of CR North actually and I think they’ll have a great shot at running well because of their pack at regionals. They have not been rated by flotrack, but they are very dangerous. 

So where exactly does CR North Stand? There seem to be 7 very strong teams coming into this regional meet, and I actually think this is better depth than we have seen in the past. So rarely, however, do teams live up to their previous races when it comes to the regional meet. 

Here at CRN’s speed ratings from States and Districts, but keep in mind these are 3-4 weeks before many of these other teams speed ratings:

Campbell: 184.67 @ States; 179 @ Districts

Haas: 175 @ States; 176.33 @ Districts

Keller: 175.67 @ States; 175.67 @ Districts

Earley: 175 @ States; 174.33 @ Districts

Koza: 167.67 @ States; 170 @ Districts

It seems quite clear that Campbell is getting a lot better. If he is able to stay healthy during these few weeks I would bet we see a 186 out of him. Haas, Keller, and Earley are all moving around the 175 range, but it will take a 177 average from them to make nationals. Earley went out in 10:25 at states and is looking for a big breakout race. I think he gets a 178.5 speed rating to lead this group with Haas and Keller running 176.00. Koza will continue to be the most important piece for this team, however. If he does not run a 170 this team does not have a chance to make nationals no matter how strong the top 4 run (unless they are all over 178). If we see Koza run a 172 this team is almost a lock for a top 3 place. 

Rankings Nationally: Will there be At-Large Teams in the Northeast?

So looking through Flotrack’s rankings it seems as though the Northeast has been greatly ignored continuously this season. I have looked through all of the regional rankings and CR North would have placed 4th @ NXN Midwest (beating previously ranked #18 Salon) and behind US #3 Neququa Valley, US #24 Downers Grove, and US #14 Mahomet-Seymour. 

CR North places 2nd out of NXN Heartland (auto-bid) and would have beaten US #21 Edina by 135 points (33 behind US #7 Wayzata). 

CR North would have placed 3rd in the NXN Northwest 17 behind Summit and 33 points ahead of US #19 North Central (who will likely get an at-large bid)

CR North would have placed 2nd in the NXN Southwest. 26 points ahead of US #13 Davis and 64 ahead of US#18 Timpano; and they would have won NXN South (on a super rough day, but they would have beaten US #2 Woodlands). 

I believe there are 3 teams already with locks to get at-large bids: Mayhomet-Seymour, North Central Oregon, and Woodlands. Lyons and Timpano have decent chances of being bumped in as well, which is about 5 teams. This leaves 3 left for the Northeast, California, and New York. From what I’ve seen this year the New York boys are a bit weak so I doubt they will get an at-large team, but you can bet California will send minimally 3 teams. Cali is always deep. However, if at least 4, if not 5 teams of the 7 described above show up at regionals I think there will be two at-large bids from the Northeast, despite not getting much love on flotrack in the rankings. So far only CBA US#4, Colts Neck US #21, and Princeton US #22 are on the list, but this gives some credibility to the regions depth that hopefully will be taken into account. 

Finally, Forrest’s Northeast Rankings

1. CBA

2. Wellesley

3. Colts Neck

4. Staples TC

5. CR North

6. Princeton

7. Lowell

I am quite wary that CR North has never raced on the NXN regional course and are so used to racing as individuals at footlocker. All of these other teams were clearly gearing towards this meet all season, while it was an after thought for CR North who accomplished their season’s goal of winning states. However, if they can make the improvements I think they could have made over the past 3 weeks they will place second. Honestly if squads 2-7 all had their best day they would each be within 10-20 points. It’s one of the closest years I’ve seen from the Northeast and I think the region will send at least 3 teams if not 4, which gives further hope to CR North’s chances.