XC Top 50 Rankings: Post States, Pre Regionals

by Jarrett Felix

50. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (NXN?)
Inglis has had a strong season, emerging as a borderline state medalist in 2016. He finished 5th at the Foundation Invite in one of his best performances of the year and also clocked top finishes at Briarwood, DELCOs and PCLs. Inglis finished his season with a 32nd place finish at the state championships, a mark that I believe came while he was missing a shoe. O’Hara has gone to NXN in year’s past and made it something of a yearly tradition so we may see one more big day out of Gavin before we switch over to track.

49. Evan Addison, Jr LaSalle (Done?)
Addison didn’t end up finishing the state championship meet, but he still left his mark on the state with top finishes at Manhattan and Foundation. He led his LaSalle squad at almost every meet this season and even picked up a district championship at Belmont to pair with his silver medal from PCLs. In the past, a couple LaSalle guys have extended their season to Footlocker, but Evan isn’t on the early entries. It’s possible we see these guys at NXN Regionals, but it’s also very possible that guys like Addison (4:17ish miler last year as a soph) are focusing up for a big push during the indoor track season.

48. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (Footlocker)
Lederer posted top finishes across the board this year, finishing in the top 3 at just about every early season invite he had the chance to compete in. He also posted an 11th place finish at the District Championships and a 31st place finish at states. This was a big breakthrough year for Lederer who really went for at Hershey and nearly came away with a state medal. He will push himself one more time at the Footlocker Northeast Regional, joined by fellow state qualifying teammate Justin Senackerib.

47. Sam Owori, So Seneca Valley (Done?)
Seneca Valley had a huge season that included a 4th place finish at states and a WPIAL championship. Leading the way as a consistent front runner was Sam Owori. As just a sophomore, Owori posted a 30th place finish at the state championships and a 4th place finish at the WPIAL championship. He also impressed at Foundation and Tri-States, putting together a strong resume over a variety of hilly courses. It appears SV is going to shut it down for the fall and look ahead to track where they will try to build off their state qualifying 4x8 and DMR squads from a year earlier.

46. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent (Footlocker)
The William Tennent Senior, along with teammate Sean Rahill, posted two of the best finishes in program history at states. Hutton, who finished 8th at districts and dipped into the 15:40s twice, finished 44th overall with Rahill (just missed the list) taking 37th. The WT program has been consistently strong in recent years, but Hutton really helped put them on the map with clutch runs at some big early season invites like Briarwood, Paul Short and William Tennent. He and Rahill are both scheduled to appear at Footlocker Regionals and it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them has a big day. It’s nice to have that training partner to get you through the final weeks.

45. Jack Zardecki, Jr Dallas (Footlocker)
Dallas won their second straight state championship this fall, led by Jack Zardecki for the second consecutive year. Zardecki finished 7th in the AA state meet and clocked a time of 16:41 on the Hershey lay out. His 7th place finish was a big jump up from a year earlier and was consistent with his runner up finish at the D2 championships behind David Haines (we’ll get to him). Zardecki will compete in the Footlocker Regional meet. I’m pleasantly surprised to see him among the entries and I’m excited to see what he has left in the tank as his best two races of the year have been his most recent. If Zardecki has a big day, maybe we see Dallas as a team next year at the NXN Regional meet.

44. Joe Cullen, Jr Wyomissing (Done?)
Cullen kept the District 3 championship in house as he rolled through the field at Big Spring. He also picked up a win at PTXC and a runner-up finish at Foundation. Although he may have been hoping for a slightly higher state finish, he still pulled out a 15th place finish in AA and picked up a well-deserved state medal. He will now likely turn his attention to the track where he has major sleeper potential. He split about a 1:54 last year as a sophomore.

43. Eric Kennedy, Sr Kiski (Done?)
Eric Kennedy really came on at the right time in 2016. He ran a strong race at leagues before rising up to finish 3rd at the WPIAL championships. At states, he finished 27th overall, just a few spots out of the medals. Kennedy, who is a sub 4:20 miler, is likely turning his attention to track season where he should be on the medal landscape once again.

42. Jake O’Neill, Sr DT West (NXN?)
If there’s one thing I knew about Jake O’Neill headed into the state meet, it was his ability to run those Hershey hills. In three seasons, he’s had his best race at states every single year and this time around was no different. O’Neill finished 17th at states with a 16:24, just 2 seconds away from 13th overall. That was a big improvement on his 24th place finish from districts and it was a clutch time to have a breakthrough. O’Neill’s big day helped West take 3rd overall in the state standings. There’s a chance we see this West squad push through to NXN for the 3rd straight season so we may see one more magical performance from Jake before he finishes out his XC career for the Whippets.

41. Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (Done?)
The Cambridge Springs senior had another fantastic season on the trials, including a huge win at the D10 championships and a top 5 finish at states. Walsh also excelled at marquee invites like Sharpsville, where he pushed under 16 minutes. It appears Connor is hanging up his XC spikes for 2016 as he is not on the Footlocker entry lists, but he has a lot to be proud of with two district titles and two top 5 finishes in the state to his name.

40. Sam Snodgrass, Jr South Fayette (Done?)
The South Fayette junior helped lead his squad to a near surprise medal performance at states when he climbed all the way to 6th overall in the standings. This came just a week after his 5th place finish at districts in the WPIAL, a district that really impressed at the state meet. He and teammate Aaron Pfeil had terrific seasons, running at the front of a variety of invites, including sub 16:30 marks at Coopers. Snodgrass will enter next season as one of the top returners in AA.

39. Ryan Thrush, Sr Brookville (Done?)
The Brookville senior has one of the most diverse resumes in distance running. When is the last time someone who has run 48 seconds in the open 400 finished in the top 5 at XC states? He clocked a time of 16:39 over the Hershey hills and survived a grueling course that left many other top names in the dust. Thrush also won the District 9 championship, earned a top finish at Foundation and put together a diverse resume across a variety of difficult courses. It would have been fun to see him on a course like Lehigh. For now, it appears Thrush is hanging up the XC spikes and turning back to the track. With his 48-1:52 credentials and a little extra strength in the bank, the sky is the limit for this kid.

38. Nick Norton, Sr Hempfield (Footlocker)
Norton had a terrific season, including a 3rd place finish at LLs and a sub 16 run at Carlisle. However, he struggled a bit at districts with a 34th place finish. He barely ended up qualifying for the state championships, however, he made that spot count. Norton had a terrific race at Hershey, dropping a 16:25 for 19th overall in AAA. He and his Hempfield teammates (including fellow state qualifiers Max Lessans and Coby Mattes) will head to Footlocker. With a pack to train with during the grueling weeks that have passed, Norton should put up a good fight against the Region’s best.

37. Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (Done?)
Lower Dauphin had a trio of stars in 2016 including senior Kyler Shea. Shea dropped a sub 15:40 at the Carlisle Invitational and was one of the top finishers at Mid Penns and Districts, helping lead his team to a silver medal performance behind Carlisle. His senior leadership and state experience likely played a big role in his teammate’s medal winning runs at Hershey.

36. Amadou Diallo, Sr Allerdice (Done?)
It’s not every day that you get a medal winning performance from District 8, but Amadou Diallo pulled it off big time with a clutch run at Hershey for the District’s first medal since 2011 (technically). Diallo finished 21st at the state championship and also won the District 8 Championship. He had a solid run at Foundation and notable efforts early in the season at McDowell and RWB.

35. David Haines, Sr North Pocono (Footlocker)
The North Pocono senior picked up where Matt Kravitz left off a year ago, clocking a sub 15:50 run at Paul Short. He added a District 2 championship and then finished things off with a gutsy 5th place finish at the AA state championships, hanging tough with the fast early pace. He will now look to test himself one more time at the Footlocker Regional Championships.

34. Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (Done?)
The second of 3 Lower Dauphin runners to make the list, Colton Cassell finished off his career with his first ever state medal, finishing 24th over the Hershey Hills. Cassell also led the team at Mid Penns, clocked a sub 15:50 time at Carlisle, and was one of the top finishers in a crowded District 3 field.

33. Eric Kersten, Sr Pennsbury (Done?)
The Pennsbury senior had an awesome run at Foundation to announce his arrival to the Top 50 list, but then began to slip out of the forefront of our minds. After a somewhat disappointing leagues finish, Kersten turned on the jets at districts and dropped a 15:50 for 14th. Then he took it up another notch with an 18th place finish at the state championships. It looks like Kersten will make that state race is last of the cross season and look ahead to track. Keep in mind, Kersten split 1:55 as a sophomore when he led off the Pennsbury 4x8 that won states. He’s returned to that level of fitness in recent weeks which is a great sign looking ahead.

32. Liam Conway, Jr Owen J Roberts (Done?)
Conway was a top invitational stand out this year with fantastic finishes at Centaur, Foundation and Paul Short. He won his league title and finished 6th at Districts. Unfortunately, states wasn’t his day, but Conway proved throughout the season that his best stuff was up there with the state’s elite. He’s likely hanging up his XC spikes and looking ahead to the track where he will be dangerous in whatever event he chooses to pursue.

31. Sam Early, Jr CR North (NXN?)
30. Tim Hass, Sr CR North (NXN?)
29. Bryan Keller, Sr CR North (NXN?)
You can make arguments to flip these guys around a little bit, but this CRN Trio helped to cement a state championship this season. They all ran in the 15:40s for 5k and finished 25th, 26th and 23rd at Hershey. Based on the post-states interview, CRN will be extending their season to the NXN Northeast Regional championships. One of these guys will need to have a breakthrough if they are going to advance to nationals. The good news is that all three of these guys have the talent to do it.

28. Ben Littman, Sr Winchester Thurston (Done?)
Littman was the runner up at the Foundation Invite and then added a pair of wins at Coopers as well as invite victory over future A state champ Noah Curtin. Littman fell back to 6th over the final stages of the state championship, but that was still his best career finish in Hershey. He also helped lead his Winchester Thurston squad to their second state title in three years and their first WPIAL title during that same stretch.

27. Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (Done?)
Tomasko had an excellent year in 2016, really establishing himself as a star on the XC trails in one of his best seasons since his freshman year. He was consistently in the mix with the top district 3 pack that included names like Morgan Cupp, Isaac Kole, Colton Cassell and Jared Giannascoli. All those guys ended up being state medalists, but unfortunately, Tomasko had to race with a nail in his spike out at Hershey due to freak circumstances. That, unfortunately, knocked him out of the top 50 individuals at states, but it’s hard to deny the impressive resume he established prior to that run.

26. Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (Done?)
The Winchester Thurston junior nearly held on to win A state gold this year, running a gutsy second mile to try and break the fierce kicks behind him. For his efforts, he was rewarded with a 3rd place finish in the state. Forsythe also posted a win at Foundation and a very quick mark at Paul Short in 2016. He was the runner-up at the WPIAL championships at finished states as the #1 runner for the team champions from WT. It looks WT might be done for the season although I suppose it’s possible we see them take a shot at NXN.

25. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (Done?)
Baldwin’s Casey Conboy got the historic program back on the medal stand with a 22nd place finish out in Hershey. Conboy was excellent in the early season, running in the low 16s at Coopers and pushing Mark Provenzo, the WPIAL champion, on multiple occasions. He slipped a tiny bit at Tri-States and Districts, but then turned it back on when it mattered to grab some state hardware.

24. Donovan Myers, Sr Seneca (Done?)
The Myers twins have been busy lately. Donovan and Phoenix took 3-2 at the District 10 championships and led Seneca to yet another team title in XC. This came just a season after they led their 4x8 to state gold in a blazing fast time. At states, Donovan cranked it up to another level, finishing 2nd overall with a big kick in a time of 16:28. It marked a 1-2 finish for District 10. Seneca finished 3rd overall just behind Elk County Catholic in the medal standings.

23. Matt D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (Done?)
D’Aquila had a fantastic year, including nice runs at Foundation and Centrals. Arguably his best race of the year came at Districts when he dipped under 15:40 en route to a 5th place finish. At states, he backed up that mark with a time of 16:26. He also was the #1 runner for a Lower Merion team that broke into the top 10 at states in a big breakthrough year. I didn’t see Matt on the Footlocker entries, but he was a strong 47th in the region a year ago (which was actually higher than he finished at states) and could be a sleeper pick to make noise if he jumps on board.

22. Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (Footlocker)
The Pleasant Valley senior quietly finished in the top 50 at states for the third straight season, dominated the District 11 landscape and posted top marks in some marquee invitationals like PTXC and Paul Short. But the real intrigue with Slavin will likely come at the Footlocker Northeast Regional meet. He won the frosh/soph race two years ago and last year finished 23rd at Regionals, a few spots better than his finish at states. He runs this course very well and it’s possible, if everything breaks right, that he dips into top 15 at regionals. That would put him on an elite list of PA alumns. Is he this year’s Kent Hall?

21. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette (Done?)
The South Fayette Senior had a phenomenal year. He finished 4th at the state championships and led South Fayette to a near upset of York Suburban for a set of team medals. He fearlessly battled at the front of every field he competed in, including RWB, Foundation and Slippery Rock. Unfortunately, the guy ended up in a stacked division, WPIAL AA, which ended up posting the top finishers overall in the state. But don’t sleep on the terrific year Pfeil had.

20. Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (Done?)
At times, junior Jared Giannascoli was Lower Dauphin’s #3 runner. But in the last two meets of the year, Jared stepped up and moved into the #1 slot. The result? An 8th place finish at districts followed by a 15th place finish at states. The Lower Dauphin trio was fantastic this year and Giannascoli will look to continue that legacy next year.

19. Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Shore (Done?)
Isaac Davis had a terrific season, finishing in the top 10 at states for the second straight year. He had a rare off day at districts, but rebounded immediately at Hershey to battle with Bumgarner and Skolnekovich. That earned him the bronze at states and top returner honors in AA. Davis also won the Foundation Invite and dominated some local invites this year. I would have loved to see him at Footlocker, but it doesn’t appear that’s on his schedule. We should expect big things on the track, even as he transitions to AAA.

18. Noah Curtin, Sr Mecyhurst Prep (Done?)
Hard to argue with Noah Curtin’s clutch gene. Considering he was second at states in 2015, we knew he was talented, but for most of the year Curtin’s results put him in line or behind the other top names in his classification. He was well behind Connor Walsh and even the Myers bros at Districts, but he refocused and entered Hershey determined to win. At the most important meet of the year, he came through and so it’s hard to knock a state champ too far down the list. He posted a 5 second margin of victory with a time of 16:23.

17. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (Footlocker)
The big story out of Carlisle in the pre-season was the Affolder brothers. But the key to Carlisle becoming a state title contender ended up being Isaac Kole. Kole made a jump from mid-pack XC runner to star in 2016, stepping up from the team’s first invite at Enos Yeager through to a 14th place finish at states. It appears Carlisle’s team is all joining Noah at Footlocker rather than NXN and Kole will be an interesting contender for a top 20 spot in the region. He will have a little bit of revenge on his mind for the Van Cortlandt Park course as the course provided a rare challenge to him at Manhattan earlier this fall.

16. Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (Done?)
Alongside Alex Tomasko, Junior Morgan Cupp continued to excel in his third season on the trails. He finished the state meet with his first medal, just ahead of Kole for the second straight week. Cupp also clocked a 15:40 at Carlisle and a sub 15:40 at Paul Short to go along with his top 5 finish in the best district in the state this year (D3). And don’t forget, Cupp and Tomasko ended up as the 1-2 punch for a Mechanicsburg team that qualified for states in 2016 in a big step for the program. They’ve had a terrific season and I’m a little sad to see that it appears they will be skipping Footlocker. That being said, we have a lot to look forward to from this duo during track season.

15. Spencer Smucker, Jr Henderson (NXN?)
Very quietly, Spencer Smucker added his 3rd straight XC state medal in his first three years of high school, joining a rare club. In recent years, only Vince McNally pulled this off in AAA. Smucker was off to a bit of a slow start (by his standards) but started to gain confidence at the right time. He ran very well at Manhattan, pulled out a top 4 finish at districts and then ran 16:17 for 12th at the state meet. The way he is ascending, it would be fun to see him give NXN Regionals a shot and see if things break right for a Kent Hall esque performance. Even if he doesn’t get there, the experience could be helpful for next year when he comes back as a senior.

14. Nick Feffer, Sr State College (Done?)
Not a lot of 800 guys have the strength, both physically and mentally, to run the state course. Feffer now has two state medals on this lay out, his most recent being this year’s 11th place run. He also won the district title, placed in the top 3 at Mid Penns and posted a top 5 finish at Foundation. Feffer ran 1:53 in the open 800 last year (1:52 on a relay) and is actually the top returner for the outdoor AAA 800 meters so it isn’t too surprising that he appears to be passing on a regional meet. But with all the talk about Ryan Thrush’s awesome range, it’s important to remember that Feffer is an 800 guy who just dropped a 16:14 to navigate the Hershey terrain.

13. Ryan Cambell, Jr CR North (NXN?)
This is the section of the rankings where things got pretty tricky. You have to respect Ryan Campbell’s stretch run this year as he posted a 3rd place finish at districts followed by a 7th place finish at the state championships. Those are two performances that indicate he was peaking at the right time. He also matched the mark of his brother, Chris, as a junior at states as he too finished 7th. Campbell has a chance to one up my ranking even further at the upcoming Nike Regional Meet. If he continues the ascent he was on at the end of PA’s postseason, the rest of region should be on upset alert.

12. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin Regional (Done?)
Provenzo was the #1 runner in the AAA WPIAL for the majority of the season, running away from many other top names at the district championships and even clocking a mid-season sub 16 at Coopers. At states, he finished 9th overall, an awesome run and his best career finish, but he did surrender his #1 WPIAL honors. That being said, Provenzo’s consistent excellence and strong representation of D7 this year was deserved of a top 12 spot in my eyes. I would have loved to see him at a regional meet, but look forward to his next performances on the oval.

11. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (Done?)
Rusty had a phenomenal year, clocking a very fast time at Paul Short, placing in the top 3 at Briarwood and winning just about every other race he contested. He won leagues and districts at Lehigh and clocked some very quick times in the process. At states, Rusty slipped back a bit, finishing 10th overall after a fast start. But that was still an awesome performance and a strong enough mark to warrant inclusion in my top 11.

10. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (NXN?)
The O’Hara senior finished in the top 20 at states for a third straight season when he crossed the line in 8th place at states. He also won the Foundation Invite and defeated some top names at the Briarwood Invite earlier this year. His time at DELCOs was one of the best ever and his mark at Belmont, en route to a PCL championship, was pretty impressive as well. He will likely get a chance to rematch with Ryan Campbell out at NXN Regionals at Wappinger Falls. Keep an eye on James in this race. He’s been awesome on this course the past two seasons. If he can find a way to capture some of that same magic, don’t be surprised if James is in the top 10 finishers and maybe in national qualifying position.

9. Noah Beveridge, Jr Butler (Footlocker)
Noah Beveridge spend the season consistently improving. Each race, he showed signs of increased fitness. He picked up a big win at Tri States and then carried that momentum through to a runner up finish at Districts. After that, he found a way to take it up yet another notch, dropping a 15:59 at Hershey and taking home 5th in the state. Beveridge was the top junior in the race. He also led his Butler team to the state championships as a surprise underdog in ’16. He and Brett Brady along with a couple other teammates appear to be headed out to Footlocker in the coming weeks. Let’s see if Beveridge can keep his upward projectory going.

8. Zach Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (Footlocker)
The Quaker Valley senior strung together some dominant performances against some of the biggest names in the WPIAL this season. He rolled at RWB and Sharpsville to easy titles over some really strong names. Then, he won the district title at Coopers Lake over Ben Bumgarner. Although Bumgarner flipped the script at Hershey in a gritty performance, it’s hard to ignore how fantastic Zach’s season was and maybe on a different day he could have been state champ. Also don’t forget he helped catapult Quaker Valley into a top flight team in the state. It looks like he is signed up for Footlocker this weekend, but it’s possible he may not run. In his post states interview, he seemed a little unsure of his path.

7. Nick Dahl, Sr Germantown Friends (Footlocker)
This weekend will go a long way towards determining Dahl’s end of season ranking. The GFS Senior rolled through his post season in the Independent League just as he has rolled to victories in the majority of his races this year. Don’t forget he beat Lefever and Kujdych (as well as out of state (kind of) Footlocker contender Dalton Hengst) at Paul Short with a blazing sub 15:20 time. That being said, the one time he looked beatable was at the Manhattan Invitational, ironically the same course that he will be competing at this weekend. This will be the first time Dahl competes at Footlocker (he’s done NXN the past two seasons) so let’s see if the switch pays off.

6. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton (Footlocker)
It would have been easy for McMenamin to make excuses this season. After missing this past spring, Connor was starting a bit behind his competitors who had all clocked big PRs at the District One 3200. But he trained hard and came back with a vengeance when he returned to racing. He excelled at PTXC, was second at Foundation, second at districts and then capped things off with a 6th place finish at states. Considering he had been running in medal position at two miles each of the previous two seasons and fell off, his last effort to hold on was particularly noteworthy. McMenamin had a nice showing at the Henderson 3200 and will look to keep things going for the upcoming Footlocker Championships.

5. Ben Bumgarner, Sr Wayensburg (Footlocker)
Bumgarner was dominate and undefeated all season until he met Skolnekovich at Districts. After a hard fought loss, he came back at states and picked up the upset victory. He ended up breaking away for a 12 second victory, which was fairly close to the margin of victory we saw from AAA champ Noah Affolder. His final time was 16:01 which would have put him right in the kicking match for 4th in AAA. Much like Dahl, Bumgarner can really solidifying his ranking this weekend with a big day at Footlocker. Bumgarner seemed a little more focused on the Footlocker Championships than his WPIAL rival Skolnekovich and that could pay off on race day.

4. Zach Lefever, Sr Ephrata (Footlocker)
3. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (Footlocker)
2. Nathan Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (Footlocker)
1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (Footlocker)
The District 3 boys took care of business in 2016. They rolled to the top 4 spots at states after a season filled with impressive finishes. Noah Affolder, of course, led the charge, posting course records everywhere he went. But Nate Henderson, Zach Lefever and Sam Affolder also threw down their fair share of jaw dropping performances, including really fast times at Big Spring and Carlisle.

All four guys are going to Footlocker and I’m excited to see how they handle the stage. I’d be pretty surprised if these 4 are the top 4 PA runners to cross the line on race day, but they definitely have the talent to keep the D3 magic alive. Noah seems like a lock (although I hesitate to say something like that in a sport like XC) to make it back to Footlocker Nats. He’s the favorite to win the region considering he won it a year ago and he’s only gotten better in the interim. His brother Sam may be my pick for #2 most likely. He has been awesome this year, ran well at the Henderson 3200, has an experienced brother to help set the pace and was rapidly closing on Henderson at states down the homestretch.

As for Nate, he’s been practicing his winning formula all year. Just hang on to Noah as long as you can and make it to the finish line. That’s a risky strategy at any meet, but Nate has the fitness and confidence to hopefully keep up and get out early. Then he just needs to hang on and make sure he makes it to the line in the top 10. I think Henderson has a chance to end up near that dreaded 11th spot that Hockenbury finished in a year ago, but I could also see him finishing around 5th. I’m keeping my fingers crossed we get him to Nats. He’s earned it this year.

Lefever is always dangerous. We can’t sleep on this kid. He’s beaten Sam Affolder before and he’s given Henderson some good battles, most notably defeating him over 3200 at outdoor states last year. This guy is very underrated.


Other Notable Footlocker Entrants:
Peter Borger, Malvern Prep
Brett Brady, Butler
Chris Colwell, Penns Valley
Casey Ellis, NE Bradford
Zach Goldberg, GFS
Christian Groff, Hempfield
Max Lessans, Hempfield
Coby Mattes, Hempfield
Ryan O’Donnell, Westtown
Matt O’Neill, Norwin
Sean Rahill, William Tennent
Wayne Reilly, Tri-Valley
Matt Scarpill, CB South
Justin Senackerib, Penncrest
Czar Tarr, Chartiers Valley
Jake Undrwood, Wilson
Jack Wisner, Carlisle

Here’s my guesses for who gets to Nationals this weekend:
1st Noah Affolder
10th Sam Affolder

2nd CR North

Let me know who you guys think will punch their tickets!

9 comments:

  1. For the record, the NXN entries appear to have been just recently released (I wrote this yesterday before they were updated) and it appears CRN, Henderson and DT West will be competing there along with Avon Grove and St. Joesph's (D6). I may have missed some others. Isaac Davis, Tristan Forsythe, Quinn Serfass Ryan James and Billy Donovan were also listed as entrants. Again, other names may have been missed.

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  2. What happened to Josh Hoey?

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  3. Interesting, you have Sam Affolder finishing over Henderson, Personally, I think that PA is going to have a great year and all three will punch their tickets to nationals.
    1. Noah Affolder
    7. Nate Henderson
    10. Sam Affolder
    (And just for kicks)
    13. Benjamin Bumgarner (Dark horse)

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    Replies
    1. I think you're right and Henderson will get through.

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  4. noah affolder paces the race perfectly for sam to kick to take 2nd place!!! i'm not sure the last time brothers took 1-2 at a regional race. this is impressive on such a high scale. it feels the shame to move away from this topic, but i will do so for the sake of brevity. zach skolnekovich with a HUGE redemption race in 15:47 to take 8th place! that's a really good time and he punches a ticket to san diego. and taking 9th place overall was nathan henderson who continues to run strong. four guys to nationals in 4 years i believe.

    crn (rock) takes 3rd in the region in 168. cba took 1st in 122 and staples were second in 132. i'm feeling very confident in this 3rd place finish. crn absolutely would have won the south regional and the new york regional with their squads. crn also beat the colts, who scored 220. colts are ranked nationally and i think that all four of these teams will get at-large bids. i think that crn has an 85% chance of making nationals and colts have a 55% chance of making nationals.

    based on these results: crn would have just beaten north spokan (3rd place in the north west). they would have placed 2nd in the heartland regional. i am guessing they would be very close to lyon who placed 4th in the midwest(4th in a very strong region who is certainly getting one if not two at-large qualifiers ).

    are we punching 11 tickets to nations?

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  5. *12, I believe Ryan James clinched an individual at NXN

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  6. so it seemed i misplaced my analysis and that only 4 teams go to nationals with at-large bids, not 8. and honestly i think CRN got really badly screwed on this one. IL, Texas, and California always seem to get so much love in these at-large bids and they all send teams. CRN out of speed ratings proved they deserved to go to nationals, but i think their lack of "big meet wins" might have also hurt them, which frankly is a ridiculous standard.

    a quite upset,
    forrestcrn

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    Replies
    1. CRN is a solid team but lacked front runners, they'd have been squashed on the national stage.

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  7. District 3 with 5 individuals (including girls) to FL nationals!

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