Warrior XC 3200m Preview

By Jarrett Felix

Performance list courtesy of run CCRS: http://www.runccrs.com/warrior-classic-performance-list-111516/. They will continue to take additional entries by email to Coach Kelly or by in person sign up.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Although the first couple paragraphs don’t necessarily indicate it, this is a preview for the upcoming Warrior XC 3200m. If you want to skip straight to the who-what-where-when-how stuff skip past the italicized PSA below.

I’m going to do my absolute best to not start talking about track until we actually finish the XC season. Sure, the season for most guys is finished, but I’m in the camp that encourages guys continuing on to NXN and Footlocker Regional championships (assuming they are feeling healthy, don’t have other commitments, etc.). Regardless of your talent/ability, there are races that you can go participate in at both meets and I encourage all readers to at least consider the opportunity. You get the chance to experience a really cool meet while also getting the chance to show the rest of the state that PA doesn’t mess around. PA Don’t Play if you will.

But it’s a dang slog to get from Point A to Point B. Unlike a lot of the other states in our region, our season is already over and there’s about a month in between states and regionals every year. I can’t really do much to help, so I feel compelled to pretend the time period isn’t that bad by focusing only on XC between now and Regional day. Fortunately, we have some people who care enough about the sport to do more than just not talk about track. The team at run CCRS is putting on an awesome 3200m to help kids who are trying to fight this slog get in a great tune up race and keep the motivation levels high as the weather gets cold and the runs get lonely.

This year’s race looks like it could be the best ever (and 2012 was pretty darn good). So let’s preview that bad boy!

In a year where District 3 turned the tables on the rest of the state, it’s exciting to see a group of District 3 runners on a regional tune-up entry list. Noah Affolder, Nathan Henderson and Sam Affolder, the top 3 finishers at this year’s state championships, are all scheduled to appear at the Warrior XC 3200m this coming Wednesday are seeded like a group of guys that wants to go fast. Keep in mind, Noah Affolder has run under 8:50 before so a 9 minute 3200 is definitely in play. Henderson’s PR is 9:08, but he’s run the equivalent of close to 9 flat in a 3k last spring at the Penn Relays.

Sam Affolder is a bit less of a known commodity in part because he is a former New York but also in part because he is still only a sophomore in first semester. Based on his XC season and his class records as a freshman, it’s not crazy to think he will hang tough to a fast pace and come away with something in the low 9 minute range. That would, admittedly, be pretty crazy. Some of PA’s top sophomore 3200 marks came on this very track as Jaxson Hoey and Nick Dahl both run under 9:10 at Henderson when they were 10^th graders. Of course, that was in May and not November.

But the name that seems to really catch the attention of the readership is Germantown Friends Senior Nick Dahl. By PR, Dahl is the #2 man in the field behind only Noah. He’s also the defending champ from this race (9:03.2) and the defending Henderson Invite Champ (9:02.1). Last spring, he really improved his speed with a 1:54 open 800 and a 4:08 relay split for 1600 meters. This fall, he’s dropped a sub 15:20 mark for a runaway victory at Paul Short, defeating Zach Lefever (4^th at states, 3^rd at districts) and Rusty Kujdych (10^th at states, 1^st at districts) among others.

However, Dahl is still a relatively unknown commodity during the XC season. His one marquee matchup against the Affolders came at Manhattan, but he didn’t have his best day on that course. In the post season, he raced outside the PIAA with his GFS teammates and, although he was dominant, didn’t give any insight into any future head to head match ups. That’s what makes his trip to Henderson (and I assume an upcoming trip to one of the two regional meets) so exciting.

Outside of these names, we have a variety of other state medalists scheduled to appear. Connor McMenamin (6^th), Ryan James (8^th), Rusty Kujdych (10^th), Spencer Smucker (12^th), Isaac Kole (14^th), and Nick Norton (19^th) are all on the entry list. All of these guys have the potential to do big things (they are state medalists after all), but I think my two guesses for breakthrough races would be Rusty Kujdych and Isaac Kole. Kujdych ran low 9:20s as a sophomore last year and looked phenomenal at leagues and districts on the quicker Lehigh surface. Plus, I’m sure he’s hungry for a little revenge. Kole ran in the 9:30s on the track last year and that was before he started training with two of the top 3 finishers at the state championships. It also doesn’t hurt that over the past few weeks, it looks like the Carlisle squad has continued to train together (they’ve got a nice contingent of entries for this one) which should make things easier than it would be for anybody who has been spending the past few weeks going it alone.

A couple other things to note from a look down the list. In terms of underclassmen, we already mentioned the #1 sophomore from states Sam Affolder, but we will also have the #3 sophomore, Jack Wisner of the same Carlisle High School. Wisner ran phenomenally at states and seems to be picking up steam just in time for a nice bit of post season success. He’s got good track speed (sub 2 in the 8 as a freshman) so we will see how he uses it to chase a PR in this one.

Also competing will be the #1 freshman from the state championships, Carlos Schultz. The freshman finished in the top 30 at the state championships joining a recent club that, over the last decade, includes Spencer Smucker and Jake Brophy … and that’s it. Not too shabby of company. Let’s see how he has handled the extra few weeks of training as he goes after this 3200 race.

I’m glad to see Shaun Bullock of DT West on the entry list. He was sub 16 at districts and led the eventual 3^rd place team finishers at just about every meet this year outside of Hershey. He’ll look for a little bit of redemption on a track he is very familiar with. Could be a sleeper pick to drop a big time and compete near the front. I’m interested to see what Peter Borger of Malvern Prep can do. He has really impressed me this season with some awesome performance on hilly courses. He is another independent leaguer who might be a little underrated because he doesn’t race the PIAA too often.

It looks like we will have nice groups of competitors from Carlisle, DT West, Henderson, Avon Grove, O’Hara, GFS and Hempfield, all teams that have excellent years. I’m excited to see who, if anyone, ends up continuing all the way through to the team competition at NXN. Also worth noting, it doesn’t appear the boys from CR North will attend this one. They indicated previously that they were eyeing a possible qualifying spot at the NXN championships.

Amazingly, this meet has given us a ton of future NXN qualifiers. In 2012, the first marquee edition of this event, PA sent two teams to nationals who both competed at this meet (O’Hara and Henderson). They also sent Sami Aziz of GFS out of the NXN regionals who, guess what, ran at this meet.

In 2013, PA sent Henderson to Nats along with Griffin Molino (didn’t compete here) and Kevin James (did compete). In 2014, we sent only Kev (who competed here) and then a year ago we sent the DT West boys (did) and Kent Hall (didn’t, although if you had told me to guess whether he did or not, I would have guessed he did).

Just found that interesting.

Anyway, I guess I’ll give you guys some predictions although it’s always hard to guess with this sort of thing.

1. N Affolder 8:58

2. N Dahl 9:00

3. S Affolder 9:11

4. N Henderson 9:12

5. R Kujdych 9:16

I’m hoping for a good battle out front between 3-4 guys. Very interested to see how Dahl and Affolder match up on the track.