by
Jarrett Felix
AAA State Championship Recap
The Race
Carlisle
tends to take a conservative approach in the early stages of a race and the District
3 champs were in 8th place at the mile mark as a result. Of course,
their top runner, Noah Affolder, the state title favorite, was out fast enough
to be at the front of the field a mile in with his brother Sam not too far
behind. The top group was about 4:53 at the mile with Noah, Nate Henderson,
Rusty Kujdcych, Mark Provenzo and Connor McMenamin leading the charge. Some 30
plus runners were out under 5 minutes in this race.
Of that
30 plus number, many were wearing CR North uniforms as the district one champs
had four guys under 5. Also running well through the mile was LaSalle who was
in second place with 113 points. The WPIAL champions from Seneca Valley were
all the way back in 13th and were easily the farthest back of the
top ranked teams in the state.
By two
miles, Carlisle was beginning to surge back to the front of the standings. With
Affolder firmly controlling the race from the front, the Herd came thundering
forward with Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner making big moves up the field. Carlisle
was in 4th, about 26 points from second but 69 from the lead. The
defending state champions, Downingtown West, hung tough in the silver medal
spot, show casing a solid pack on the hills.
Individually,
Affolder looked to be in control, but JP McCaskey’s Nate Henderson hung tight
on his shoulder. Those two had nearly a 10 second advantage on everyone else.
The top two spots seemed set, but the race was wide open after that. Noah
Beveridge and Ryan James moved up to join the chase pack with Sam Affolder and
Zach Lefever also in the mix.
At the
finish, Noah rolled down the home straightaway and clocked the fastest time of
the day with a 15:33. Behind him, Nate Henderson held on tight for second after
giving everything he had to push himself alongside Noah. Sam Affolder was
coming hard, throwing down a big kick, trying to give Carlisle a historic 1-2
finish, but coming up just 2 seconds short. The Affolders 1-3 run was eerily
similar to the Hoeys run from a year earlier when they took 2-3.
I
really respect the season Nate had. He was throwing down some terrific times
each week and in most years would have been the state champion. But do to
random circumstance, the Affolders came to town, a pair of unique, once in
generation type talents and his favorite status was poached not just in the state,
but within his district. A lot of people would have let that get to them
mentally and maybe started to lose focus or enthusiasm, but Nate continued to
excel and finished the meet with his best ever state finish (any season).
Hopefully, he’s got something extra left in the tank for Footlocker Regionals.
It was
a big day for District 3. After the Affolder-Henderson-Affolder stuff was
sorted out, Zach Lefever of Ephrata won a three way kickers battle to sweep the
top 4 spots for D3. Junior Noah Beveridge, much like Nate Henderson a year ago,
was the top junior in the race after grabbing the middle spot in a kickers
battle. We knew odds were good there would be a District 7 runner in the top 5
overall, but I think the general consensus was that would be the experienced
senior Mark Provenzo (who had a great race of his own in 9th), but
Beveridge stepped up and grabbed the top WPIAL spot with a sub 16 mark on the
new lay out. Keep in mind that Beveridge was 7th at his first race
of the season (McDowell) and 6th at his second (RWB). He ends (?)
his season with a 5th place finish at states. Pretty cool.
Connor
McMenamin finished as the top district one finisher in 6th overall
in a fantastic story of redemption. He had been in medal position at two miles
each of the past two seasons but had struggled to finish the job. This year,
healthy, strong and experienced, Connor held on valiantly with an awesome run.
Lots of
other cool stories in this race including a couple big performances from guys
who were in the background at districts. Jake O’Neill continues to find magic
on the Hershey hills. He runs this course phenomenally and picked the right
time to become West’s #1 runner with a 17th place finish at states.
Nick Norton of Hempfield barely even qualified for the state championships, but
he made the most of his opportunity with a 19th place finish and a
state medal.
I loved
see Amadou Diallo of Allerdice get on the medal stand as well. He finished 21st
in this race which, I believe is the best finish by District 8 at the state
meet in the past decade plus, passing Ean DiSilvio, a super talented cross guy
who is killing it at PSU as of late. Zach Case of Hampton was an interesting
name to note as well. Case would have missed the state meet entirely if Mars’s
freshman Zachary Leachman didn’t pull out. But Case pounced on the opportunity
and raced to 39th overall in the state championships. That was an
impressive race that I definitely didn’t see coming and a classic example of seizing
the opportunity.
Although
we were all hoping for a crazy battle for the state championship, the top two
teams really ended up asserting themselves pretty clearly in this one. CR North
posted a big win with five top 50 finishers, and almost 4 medalists as their
3-4 punch essentially tied for the last state medal. North will now look to
qualify for the national championships out West. They left no doubt about their
ability to race the hills and officially silenced anyone who had dropped the “overrated”
line on them earlier this season on the blog.
Carlisle
finished 40 points ahead of 3rd place and 42 behind 2nd,
putting them in their own tier. There’s not much to be disappointed with if you’re
a member of the Carlisle team. Jack Wisner had an absolutely monster race. He
finished 33rd overall in an awesome performance, consistently moving
up through the field. That solidified the team’s top 4 group as they also
finished with 3 medalists. I thought Max Fiorentino had a strong race as the
team’s #5, but unfortunately he would have needed to run a massive PR for this
team to keep pace with CRN. Think of it this way, if Fiorentino ran roughly 20
seconds faster, it still would have taken a 1-2-3-4 finish in team standings
for Carlisle to beat CRN. All the same, the Herd made a big statement for
District 3. They performed well at every meet they traveled to and they had the
best D3 finish at a state meet since 2005.
If you
were looking for craziness, then you probably liked the battle for the
remaining top 10 spots. Some teams definitely had some bad luck, perhaps most
notably Mechanicsburg whose projected #2 runner Alex Tomasko ran with what
appeared to be a nail in his foot the whole race. Although he finished farther
back than hoped, you have to really respect Tomasko’s will to push through this
misfortune and finish the race. He helped Mechanicsburg finish 11th
in the state, just two points off 10th. It looks like Lower Dauphin’s
Mark Walsh, the freshman sensation who had been a big part of their climb to
states, didn’t race. Hope he is OK.
And how
about LaSalle? They had an unfortunate DNF from one of their top guys and
Stephen Paul, who had been a top 2 guy on the team in the early season, had a
rare off day, but the Explorers still managed to take 5th in the
state, just 2 points away from 4th. That just speaks again to the
depth of this team. How many of the top programs realistically could have
survived the state course without their top 2 runners having strong
performances?
The
WPIAL champions, Seneca Valley, survived all the let down potential from their
big win at districts and finished 4th in the state. Literally no one
picked them higher than 5th place and they spent the majority of the
season struggling to just crack the top 10 on most people’s state team
rankings. But at the end of the day they are WPIAL champions with a 4th
place finish at states, led by two sophomores who both notched top 40 finishes.
Their lone senior, Trey Razanauskas, helped lead SV to a historic year and,
with everyone else coming back next year, perhaps the beginning of something
great.
Lastly,
big shout out to State College. Nick Feffer grabs a second straight medal, but
Owen Isham, just as sophomore, crushes this race with a top 50 finish overall.
That was huge. The injury to Mitchell Etter could have really brought down the
resolve of this team, but everyone stepped up at the right time including #4
Thomas Branstetter and the #5-6 punch of Sam Horn and David Wong. Now we move
to track season where Feffer and Owen Wing (strong stretch run to his XC
season) will look to lead them back into the 7:40s yet again. The last three
years they’ve run 7:41, 7:41 and 7:37.
Quick Thoughts
1. District
One Teams All in the Top 10 … Again. Since
the move to three classifications, all 5 district one teams have built a house
in the top 10 at states. No matter what happens, they seem to always find a way
to get there. This year, I thought it was going to be basically impossible for
Henderson or Lower Merion to get in the top 10 and I was worried about CB West
as well. But all three teams had awesome days and they took 8th-9th-10th
on the Hershey hills. For Henderson, Jack Downing’s return to the line-up was
big and he came on just when this team needed him most. Stephen Heck also
crushed his last two races of the year. CB West’s Michael Samson stepped up
into the #1 runner role (outside the scoring 5 last week) as West ended up in
the top 10 even without a top 50 overall finish, speaking to their ability to
pack run. And for Lower Merion, D’Aquila led the way with a state medal, but
you have to love the racing by Theodore Neckowitz. He finished just outside the
top 50 in this race despite the fact that he didn’t even race with the team at
Foundation. Great stuff from LM and District One.
2. That
being said, D3 individuals really stepped up. D3 took the first 4 spots overall and, with Noah
Beveridge stepping up, D1 didn’t have a top 5 finisher. When’s the last time
that happened? But it wasn’t just the big 4. Isaac Kole and Morgan Cupp, who’ve
battled all year, finished 13th and 14th overall. Junior
Jared Giannascoli picked the right time to step into the #1 runner role as he
led the team at both districts and states, finished 15th overall.
His teammate Colton Cassell and Hempfield’s Nick Norton also finished in the
medals, giving D3 9 state medalists! That matched D1’s total.
3. Just
one sophomore medalist …
and he may not even be back next year.
Sam Affolder was the only sophomore state medalist and it’s very possible the
Affolder family may move again next year, meaning things in the class of 2019
could get real interesting. In fact, after Sam Affolder the next best young
runner was freshman Carlos Shultz (29th in an awesome young gun
performance). Seneca Valley had two of the next three sophomores with Sam Owori
(30th) and Seth Ketler (34th) while Jack Wisner split
those with his 33rd place finish. Freshman Dan McGoey (45th)
of North Allegheny and State College’s Owen Isham (47th) were other
young stand outs who handled the state pressure well.
4. Where
does CRN stack up among the great teams? Do we start talking about this team with the other
great squads? They had 4 in the top 26 overall which, if I’m not mistaken, hasn’t
been done since Coatesville in 2006 (i.e. the National Champs). We have yet to
see how North transitions from states to regionals as they’ve never attended
that meet, but they are apparently going to make the trip this year. I’m
looking forward to seeing how they continue to bolster their legacy.
5. Alright,
I’m ready to see Noah Affolder get after it for real. And maybe he takes some
others with him. With
all due respect to the state of PA (we had some incredible performances this
year), I want to see Affolder in the regional and national championships. He’s
been openly stating that those are his focus all year and maybe one of those
will be the race he loses this year? It’s yet to really be close (Nate
Henderson has been his best challenger this year that I’ve seen including the
competition at McQuaid and Manhattan). But the logical follow up is who might
have a chance to attend Nationals with him? I like to say the best brings out
the best, meaning when someone good comes along to train with or race again, it
elevates everyone around them because they are trying to beat him (or her). So
will Nate Henderson survive Footlocker, running on Noah’s hip? Will Sam
Affolder join Noah in San Diego? I hope PA sends a lot of guys to both meets, I
think it is great for the state to represent at these big regional meets. That
being said, it’s a long season if you go to the end of November and it’s not
for everyone.
#DerailTheTrain
As
always, I didn’t have a perfect resume for my state championship predictions. I’ve
already touched on a lot of the big breakthroughs (the D1 teams, State College,
Nick Norton come to mind), but let’s see if I can find a few more upsets. Eric
Kersten of Pennsbury finished 18th overall in this race, showing
that his breakthrough at Foundation was no fluke. He becomes Pennsbury’s third different
medalist within the last few seasons. David Merkey of Manheim Central had an
awesome day. He took 36th overall and I wasn’t even sure he would be
top 2 on his own team. Brett Brady of Butler had a terrific day, cracked the
top 50 overall and Cheltenham’s Will Griffen also finished his season on a high
note with a 49th place finish.
Does anyone know if the Affolders are moving out of state end of this year? I know some sophomores who are hoping so, though I wouldn't mind seeing him rep PA for 2 more years.
ReplyDeletehmm, i wonder if a post can be made analyzing the results on milesplit to see who went out hard in the first mile and who didn't to see whether it was smarter to race more conservatively in the beginning on this new course
ReplyDeleteNice wrap up Etrain. My take was:
ReplyDeleteCRN - won as almost everyone expected
Carlisle - with 3 in the top 10 were #2 as most expected
Dwest - pretty much where expected, most had them in the first 4.
Senenca Valley - much higher than most predicted but probably right where they should have been.
LaSalle - A bit off but top guy had to drop out so that explains that.
NA - doing what that program always does.
State College - completely out of nowhere.
WCH - doing what that program always does.
CBW - a solid day, only 13 places from being 7th.
LM - another with a solid day, and a good finish to a great season.
A couple of teams probably expected to do a little better but bad meets happen. Just making it to states means a very successful season.
Forgot to put this in the post, but congrats to Ryan1220 on the victory in the AAA Fantasy XC Draft! It was a close battle between a few teams (not mine), but Ryan1220 pulled it out! Check out the full results on the Fantasy XC post and maybe double check my math to make sure I didn't mess up.
ReplyDeleteNate Henderson ran a aggressive but smart race and would have been state champ if the Affolders hadn't been transferred to PA.
ReplyDeleteWhat does everyone make of O'Hara totally falling apart? LaSalle has had some poor states races in the past with pieces not coming together and runners having to drop out for various reasons (especially thinking of 2011 or 2010?), but these two squads looked really good at PLC's in my opinion. I thought they both could have pushed Carlisle at states.
ReplyDeleteAlso big shoutout to Jake O'Neill for a huge states race and grabbing a medal. That's some big time racing for you
I think one of their guys lost a shoe.
DeleteAnna Juul finished 3rd in the state in AAA girls race and ran almost the entire race without a shoe. Not a big enough excuse for me
DeleteMaybe they're peaking for nationals.
Delete@forrest which years did they fall off and have guys drop off? 2010 they lost a lot to graduation and had a younger team. 2011 they were still young with 3 juniors and a soph and finished 7th overall
DeleteIf Etrain had run for president he'd have picked up a few thousand votes in PA.
ReplyDeleteEtrain Forrest 2016
Delete